Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss: Keys to Victory in 2016 Sugar Bowl
The great college football bowl games don't end with the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year's Eve. New Year's Day is still a day packed with compelling bowl games. One of the best of the holiday is the Sugar Bowl matchup between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Ole Miss Rebels.
It would be great if the top storyline heading into the game was purely a football topic, but unfortunately, that's not the case. Ole Miss' all-world defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche is suspended from the game, per Chris Low of ESPN.com. Nkemdiche's absence from the game was first reported by Ben Garrett of the Ole Miss Spirit.
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Without Nkemdiche wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage, the Rebels will be without their best defensive player against the potent Cowboys offense. That makes the game all the more difficult to predict.
Both teams have offenses capable of putting points on the scoreboard. We may be set to watch the final college game in the careers of Ole Miss standouts Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil. Treadwell is likely the top receiver prospect for the 2016 NFL draft, and Tunsil is among the most talented offensive tackles.
Without Nkemdiche, the Rebels may just need Treadwell and Tunsil to be at their best to win what might turn out to be a shootout.
Here's a look at what figure to be the keys to victory:
Cowboys Rushing Attack vs. Ole Miss Run Defense
Oklahoma State didn't have one of the more dominant rushing attacks in 2015. In fact, per cfbstats.com, the Cowboys ranked 109th in the nation in rushing. That is a partially deceiving number.
Their per-game total was dragged down by two poor performances: 49 yards on October 3 vs. the Kansas State Wildcats and eight yards on November 21 against the Baylor Bears. If you take away those two games, the Cowboys' average jumps from 132.1 to 152.9.
The Rebels are ranked 27th in the nation against the run, but without Nkemdiche in the middle to anchor the defensive line, it could be reasoned that Oklahoma State may have an opening to exploit. Quarterback J.W. Walsh is capable of doing damage with his legs (11 rushing touchdowns, per cfbstats.com), but junior running back Chris Carson might be in line to have a surprisingly big game. He's the leader of a modest group of running backs, but given the opportunity, he has the talent to shine.
If the Cowboys can establish a consistent ground game, the Rebels will be in trouble.
Turnover Margin
For Ole Miss, it's been pretty simple all season: force turnovers and win, lose the turnover battle and the game as well—in most instances. The Rebels don't do a great job taking care of the ball, but their defense has generated enough takeaways in their wins to compensate for the offense's follies.
In their nine wins, Ole Miss has 16 giveaways and 21 takeaways, per cfbstats.com. In their three losses, the team has just one takeaway and six giveaways.
There have been three games that the Rebels didn't turn the ball over. They have won all but one of those games. A fourth would obviously give them a great chance to beat Oklahoma State. Perhaps more importantly, Ole Miss' defense needs to make plays and that means generating their own takeaways.
Cowboys' Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense on 3rd Down
When the Cowboys win, they convert nearly 46 percent of their third-down opportunities, per cfbstats.com. In losses, that number drops to 35 percent. This will be affected by how well the Cowboys are able to run the ball.
If Carson and the Cowboys can get something going on the ground early on, the third-down-conversion attempts will be much more manageable. If the Rebels can force the Cowboys into third-and-long situations, it'll increase the chances Ole Miss is able to force turnovers. Even if Walsh and the skill players are careful with the ball, Oklahoma State would be settling for too many three-and-out series.
In either case, it's bad news for the Cowboys.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
