Orange Bowl 2015: Examining Key Stats and Matchups for Oklahoma vs. Clemson
Top-seeded Clemson and fourth-ranked Oklahoma kick off the 2015 College Football Playoff with what should be a highly entertaining clash Thursday afternoon. Both offenses are capable of putting up monster numbers, as they've illustrated all season.
A quick glance at the stats shows this is an even matchup almost across the board. In turn, a few key battles and one or two critical plays will likely make all the difference. The only surprise would be if the game turns into a total blowout.
So let's check out all of the important information for the 2015 Orange Bowl, which also serves as the first playoff semifinal. That's followed by a look at some key numbers and a preview.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Game Details
Where: Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
When: Thursday, Dec. 31, at 4 p.m. ET
Watch: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Tickets: ScoreBig.com
Key Stats
| Total Offense | 542.9 YPG (6th) | 510.6 YPG (11th) |
| Total Defense | 350.7 YPG (30th) | 295.7 YPG (7th) |
| Scoring Offense | 45.8 PPG (2nd) | 38.5 PPG (16th) |
| Scoring Defense | 20.8 PPG (22nd) | 20.2 PPG (18th) |
| Red-Zone Offense | 89.2% (17th) | 89.8% (14th) |
| Red-Zone Defense | 78.4% (30th) | 82.9% (62nd) |
| 3rd-Down Offense | 44.0% (29th) | 47.7% (13th) |
| 3rd-Down Defense | 39.8% (73rd) | 24.9% (2nd) |
| Turnover Margin | +0.83 (14th) | -0.15 (82nd) |
| Time of Possession | 31 MPG (39th) | 32 MPG (26th) |
Matchup Preview
As mentioned, the stats don't give either team a glaring edge coming into the game, and that's the way it should be in the playoffs. These teams are in the final four because they marginalized their weaknesses and played to their strengths.
The Sooners' finish was particularly impressive. A shocking loss to Texas in early October left them with no margin for error the rest of the way. They responded with seven straight wins, highlighted by a closing stretch that featured victories over Big 12 rivals Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.
Baker Mayfield led the charge. The quarterback has racked up 42 total touchdowns during his first season at Oklahoma after transferring from Texas Tech. Nine of those scores came in those three critical games to close out the regular season.
Despite that recent run of success, Mayfield and Co. are still using a loss as a key source of motivation. One year ago, the Sooners got blown out by Clemson, 40-6, in the Russell Athletic Bowl. The quarterback talked about how it felt watching from the sidelines, as Greg Logan of Newsday noted.
"It was hard to watch," Mayfield said. "They flat-out embarrassed us. The attitude we had on our sideline was not great. What I took away was the disappointment of how we carried ourselves in that game. That's what we use as fuel. We're not going to let that happen again."
Slowing down Mayfield is obviously a concern for Clemson. The Tigers' defensive front, led by Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd, must make its presence felt in the Oklahoma backfield on a consistent basis. If it doesn't, the Sooners' passing game will tear the defense apart.
A more pressing concern, however, is how the Clemson offense matches up without Deon Cain. The team's most dangerous downfield threat was among three players suspended Tuesday, along with Ammon Lakip and Jay Jay McCullough, per George Schroeder of USA Today.
If the Tigers can't establish at least the threat of a deep passing game, the task becomes much easier for the Oklahoma defense. Head coach Dabo Swinney talked up Trevion Thompson, who has just 10 catches this season, and hoped he could fill the void, according to David M. Hale of ESPN.
"He's a great player, got every attribute," Swinney said. "He's had some big moments for us, and he's improved every week. He's had an excellent fall for us, and he's very capable of making any play we need."
Going back to the stats, even though there isn't anything to shift the game totally in favor of either team, there are two areas still worth watching: Oklahoma's third-down defense and Clemson's turnover margin.
The Sooners can't afford to let the Tigers extend drives. In the loss to Texas, they allowed a mediocre Longhorns offense to convert nine of its 16 attempts on third down.
On the flip side, it's impressive Clemson went undefeated while holding a negative turnover ratio for the season. It won't have nearly as much leeway for mistakes against the teams in the playoff.
Ultimately, all signs point to this being a one-possession game that goes right down to the wire. Neither side lacks playmakers, and it's going to come down to which ones are able to come up big in the fourth quarter.
The Sooners' difficult schedule down the stretch should have them prepared for this moment. That experience gives them the slight edge in the end.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Clemson 28
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
