The Biggest X-Factor Players for the College Football Playoffs
On Tuesday, we previewed the 10 stats that could decide the College Football Playoff semifinals. Today, we move away from the stat sheet and look at the players on the field who could be difference-makers in the two biggest games of the season.
These are the X-Factors for the Orange Bowl (No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma) and the Cotton Bowl (No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State). Keep in mind the X-Factor is not be the obvious star or even the best player. Rather, these are key players in must-watch matchups whose performances could dictate the outcomes.
In the following slides are eight players—one offensive and one defensive selection for each of the four semifinal teams—who fit this mold.
Clemson Cornerback Mackensie Alexander
1 of 8
Arguably the best one-on-one matchup in the Orange Bowl will be Oklahoma wide receiver Sterling Shepard vs. Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander. This is a first-team All-Big 12 selection going up against a first-team All-ACC player. Take some time and check out these two going at it. It promises not to disappoint.
Alexander is a big talker.
"I'm like Floyd (Mayweather). I can be a little brash—a little cocky," he said, per Brandon Rink of The State. "I put in the time to do that. I take my time with this sport. I love playing cornerback."
And he backs it up. He shut down Notre Dame receiver Will Fuller earlier in the year and owns one of the best completions-per-targets percentages in college football, per ESPN.com.
Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield has already said he's going to throw to Shepard "no matter what," per GoGamecocks.com's Matt Connolly. Considering Mayfield's ability to extend plays with his feet, which will almost always benefit the offense, it's going to be up to Alexander to keep Shepard in check.
Oklahoma Linebacker/Edge-Rusher Eric Striker
2 of 8
Linebacker/edge-rusher Eric Striker leads Oklahoma with 7.5 sacks. In the Orange Bowl, he'll go up against a Tigers offense that has given up just 14 sacks all season, which ranks 12th nationally. Part of that can be attributed to great protection. Part of it can be attributed to the athleticism of quarterback Deshaun Watson and his decision-making.
Something has to give, though, and it'll either be Clemson's pass protection or Striker's disruption in the backfield.
In addition to sacking the quarterback, Striker also has 11 quarterback hurries. This may be the more relevant stat in the big picture. As long as Striker can get into the backfield and make Watson feel hurried and uncomfortable—Louisville did an excellent job of this early in the season—it's almost as effective as recording the sack.
Also, Striker is well known and will be a focus for Clemson's pass protection. This could potentially open up opportunities for guys like defensive end Charles Tapper, who isn't far behind Striker in sack numbers. What's more is Tapper recorded all seven of his sacks in four of Oklahoma's final five games, plus he's forced four fumbles this season, so he's playing his best football at the right time.
Oklahoma's defense is a touch undersized but enjoys bringing lots of pressure and creating chaos. Striker is the catalyst for this, but any extra attention dedicated to him opens up possibilities elsewhere.
Alabama Running Back Kenyan Drake
3 of 8
Obviously, running back Derrick Henry is the rock of Alabama's offense. There's no denying this. But don't overlook the impact complementary back Kenyan Drake can have.
Drake is a real change of pace with his speed, ability to catch passes out of the backfield and contributions on special teams. He's been oft-injured and doesn't get a ton of touches—10 per game including rushing attempts, receptions and kick returns—but he's good at making those touches count. In all, he averages 8.2 all-purpose yards per play.
"I think the fact that he got to play in (the SEC title game) probably helped his confidence," head coach Nick Saban said, per Fox Sports. "But he seems to have no issues at all relative to what he's capable of doing, and I think it's important because he's certainly a guy that can be a weapon for us on offense, and we certainly need a little more diversity in terms of what we do on offense. And he's a guy that can give us some of those things."
When Henry needs a break or Alabama's offense needs a different spark, Drake is the player who can keep things moving. His versatility adds an entirely new dimension that Michigan State has to account for and defend.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Oklahoma Center Ty Darlington
4 of 8
Oklahoma's loss to Texas was, as head coach Bob Stoops put it to Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman, a "wake up call" for his team. But the most noticeable difference between Oklahoma pre-Texas and Oklahoma post-Texas has been the sudden surge in the running game. The Sooners have averaged 6.1 yards per carry since mid-October, and sophomore running back Samaje Perine is at 1,291 yards.
The blocking up front has obviously been a huge part of that, but in a year in which Oklahoma's O-line took on some different looks, center Ty Darlington has been the constant. The senior and Campbell Trophy winner for on-field and academic achievement is one of the cornerstones of the Sooners offense. Offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley called Darlington "the smartest person in the room," per Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports.
Oklahoma's ability to establish the run and then exploit Clemson's defensive weaknesses starts up front, which means it begins with Darlington. If the Sooners can run block well enough to get Perine and Joe Mixon going, a lot of possibilities open up from there. That would be a continuation of where Oklahoma left off in the regular season.
Michigan State Quarterback Connor Cook
5 of 8
Finally, we get around to choosing a quarterback. Congratulations, Connor Cook. You get the nod.
Why? Cook doesn't get the recognition of Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield, but he's a veteran, efficient passer. He just so happens not to play in an offense that puts up gaudy passing numbers. But, to be sure, the Spartans offense has been far more wide open and creative over the past few years because of Cook.
Cook is the key to Michigan State's victory over Alabama, because he's able to push the ball downfield and exploit the Tide's pass defense. When your run defense is as good as Alabama's, defending the pass is clearly going to be the weakness. Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman told ESPN's Paul Finebaum that Cook needs to play like a first-round quarterback to beat Alabama, and he's not wrong.
But it's not just through the air where Cook needs to thrive. Since Michigan State likely can't beat Alabama running north and south in a phone booth, it needs to be creative with running plays. Oddly enough, the Spartans have had success incorporating zone reads and option plays with Cook this year. The coaching staff will need to utilize some of those plays again to keep the Tide defense on its heels.
Clemson Wide Receiver Artavis Scott
6 of 8
Artavis Scott is Clemson's leading receiver with 84 receptions for 805 yards, but that's not what makes him an X-factor for the Tigers offense. As of yesterday, this selection would have been freshman receiver Deon Cain. After all, Cain came on strong in the second half of the season and replaced Mike Williams as the deep threat in the vertical passing game.
However, Cain was one of three players sent home for failing a drug test, according to Aaron Brenner of the Post and Courier. The other two were tight end Jay Jay McCullough and kicker Ammon Lakip, but Cain is the by far the biggest loss.
That puts more pressure on Scott to carry the passing game. Tight end Jordan Leggett, who leads the team with seven touchdown receptions, and receiver Charone Peake will play roles, to be sure. Leggett is a matchup problem and Peake started over Cain.
Still, Cain was the player defenses had to account for in stretching the field. That part of the game has now taken a hit. Scott is great at getting yards after the catch, and he'll have to put that to good use against the Sooners.
Michigan State Nose Tackle Malik McDowell
7 of 8
Defensive end Shilique Calhoun is the star of Michigan State's outstanding defensive line, but sophomore nose tackle Malik McDowell has come into his own in 2015.
McDowell, a former blue-chip recruit, was a second-team All-Big Ten selection by the Associated Press with 39 tackles—12 of which went for a loss. That was second on the team only to Calhoun. He also had 4.5 sacks. To be such a physical and dominating presence in the interior of the line means McDowell is special.
Alabama is going to feed Heisman trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry. That's been the core of the Tide's offense and there's no mistake about what's coming. This is where McDowell can take over the game by plugging holes and slowing or otherwise stopping plays at the point of attack. McDowell can make plays himself or lead the way for guys like linebacker Riley Bullough, to make plays.
Don't be surprised to hear Bullough's name throughout the Cotton Bowl, but remember McDowell is doing a lot of the dirty work to get the job done.
Alabama Defensive End Jonathan Allen
8 of 8
Not only is Alabama's run defense formidable, but its pass rush is the best in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision (46 sacks). Leading the Tide is defensive end Jonathan Allen with 10 sacks. Additionally, Allen has 12.5 tackles for loss and six quarterback hurries.
That's bad news for Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook.
Don't be surprised if the Spartans try to push Alabama's defense early with some deep passes to open up the running game. The flip side of that, however, is that long-developing plays create opportunities for Allen and Co. to put the MSU offense behind the chains.
Michigan State is one of the best teams in college football in converting third downs, so putting the Spartans in obvious passing situations with a long down-and-distance helps limit dangerous situations for Alabama's defense. Allen vs. the edge of Michigan State's veteran offensive line will be a terrific battle in the trenches to control the line of scrimmage.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
