College Football Playoffs 2016: Odds, Picks, Players to Watch in Semifinals
After weeks of anticipation, the final two contenders for the national championship will be determined Thursday as both College Football Playoff semifinal clashes will take place on New Year's Eve in the form of the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl.
Undefeated Clemson will look to keep its title hopes alive against No. 4 Oklahoma in Florida, while No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Michigan State will lock horns at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, with a national championship game berth on the line.
Prior to the two biggest games of the college football season thus far, here is a closer look at each semifinal tilt, along with players to watch and predictions for how they will play out.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Orange Bowl
| Thursday, Dec. 31 | 4 p.m. | (4) Oklahoma | (1) Clemson | ESPN | Oklahoma (-3.5) |
Player to Watch: Baker Mayfield
Plenty of eyes will be on Clemson quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson during the Orange Bowl, but he may not even be the best signal-caller in the game, as Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield is enjoying a remarkable season in his own right.
With over 3,800 yards, 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions to his credit, Mayfield looked every bit like a Heisman candidate; however, he was snubbed from a trip to New York.
Even so, Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables knows just how good Mayfield has been and can be under center, according to Gerry Ahern of USA Today.
"He's a Heisman-type guy," Venables said. "When you talk Heisman Trophy-worthy, that's another level. It's one thing to throw a guy's name out there and the next to have a 12-, 13-game resume that shows it's justified, not talk."
The Heisman snub may have put a chip on Mayfield's shoulder, but he likely didn't need any extra motivation after being lightly recruited out of high school and being forced to make it as a walk-on at Texas Tech before transferring to Oklahoma.
While Mayfield hasn't had an easy journey in college football, he wouldn't want it any other way.
"That's made me who I am today, all the stuff I had to overcome, just going out and grinding it out and working for it," Mayfield said, per ESPN.com's Chris Low. "That's who I am. That's who I've always been. It's made me better, not only as a football player, but as a person."
Mayfield has embraced the underdog role throughout his career, and while the Sooners are technically favored to beat the Tigers, there is an underdog element for Mayfield since he is facing a quarterback who has garnered more national respect.
Both Watson and Mayfield have the ability to put a team on their back, but it will be especially interesting to see what Mayfield does on the heels of a Heisman snub.
Prediction
The Orange Bowl will feature a clash between two of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, but the Sooners already have an advantage going in since Clemson will be at less than full strength.
Aaron Brenner of the Post and Courier confirmed a report Tuesday that the Tigers will be without wide receiver Deon Cain, tight end Jay Jay McCullough and kicker Ammon Lakip for the game because of failed drug tests.
The loss of Cain is especially significant since he is the team's second-leading receiver. Watson likes to spread the ball around, but Cain's absence takes away a certain big-play dynamic.
There is no such controversy for Oklahoma, as Mayfield will have his full allotment of weapons, including sophomore running back Samaje Perine, who is currently on a major roll.
He has rushed for at least 90 yards in six straight games, and he has scored 12 touchdowns during that stretch as well.
If the Sooners' air and ground combination attack isn't enough, their redemption tour is what may ultimately put them over the top.
As pointed out by ESPN's Kevin Negandhi, Oklahoma has gotten one over this season on every team that defeated it last season:
Clemson is next on that list, as it beat the Sooners 40-6 in the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl.
One can only assume that Oklahoma has some added motivation because of the whooping it absorbed last season.
Add in the fact that Mayfield has something to prove and that Clemson is dealing with distractions, and all signs point toward an Oklahoma win.
Because of that, look for the Sooners to roll into the national championship game with an impressive 38-27 triumph over the undefeated Tigers.
Cotton Bowl
| Thursday, Dec. 31 | 8 p.m. | (3) Michigan State | (2) Alabama | ESPN | Alabama (-10) |
Player to Watch: Derrick Henry
A great defense and a strong running game have been the main hallmarks of success for Alabama under head coach Nick Saban, but the Crimson Tide have taken running the football to another level this season because of the presence of Derrick Henry.
The physically imposing junior has dominated the competition in 2015 en route to 1,986 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns and a Heisman Trophy win. He is the most rugged and dominant running back in college football, and it poses a difficult challenge for a Michigan State team that has been solid against the run, as seen in this graphic courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info:
While Bama quarterback Jake Coker has made some plays this season, there is no question that the Spartans would rather force him to beat them rather than be at the mercy of Henry.
In order to make that happen, MSU co-defensive coordinator Mike Tressel knows his defense must be ready and willing to take Henry and his hard-charging style head on, according to Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press:
"It has to be our mind-set, that we are going to need to want to tackle, and want to tackle physical, every single snap. With a big man, you can see as the year progressed and as his game progressed, that people have started thinking twice about wanting to throw their body around. The mind-set is a start, and the second thing is the depth.
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Henry has rushed for at least 200 yards in four of his past seven games, and he topped 40 carries in each of his past two contests as well.
Even if Michigan State somehow manages to bottle Henry up early, it is likely Alabama will continue to feed him the ball in an effort to impose its will.
The Crimson Tide offense goes as Henry goes, so there is undoubtedly no more important player in the Rose Bowl than the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
Prediction
While the Orange Bowl figures to feature plenty of splashy, explosive plays, the Cotton Bowl has all the makings of a rugged, physical battle that may not necessarily light up the scoreboard.
Both teams like to run the ball, as Alabama pounds Henry early and often, while Michigan State uses a committee approach that includes the likes of LJ Scott, Gerald Holmes and Madre London. The Spartans also have a skilled quarterback in Connor Cook, although 2015 has been somewhat of a down year for him partly because of injuries.
From Michigan State's perspective, there isn't much mystery involved with what Alabama would like to do in the Cotton Bowl on offense. That doesn't mean MSU will be able to stop Henry, but according to David Ubben of Sports on Earth, Tressel likes not necessarily having to worry about a wide array of players beating him:
The Crimson Tide aren't necessarily lacking in terms of weapons, though, as running back Kenyan Drake and wide receivers Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart are all capable of making big plays when called upon.
As much as the Spartans would like to focus all of their attention on Henry, Alabama has enough other talent on the offensive side of the ball to put up some points should MSU crowd the box.
On the flip side, the Michigan State offense has been somewhat lacking lately with 17 or fewer points in two of its past three games. Add in the fact that it will go up against one of the best front sevens in college football, and the ceiling doesn't seem particularly high in terms of putting points on the board.
Because of those factors, the Tide will continue their pursuit of a national title with a 24-13 win over the Spartans in the Cotton Bowl.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
