Tigers or Twins: Who Will Win Baseball's AL Central?

After 150 games, there is only one race in Major League Baseball that has a major storyline down the stretch. 

Three weeks ago it looked like the Detroit Tigers had the AL Central all but wrapped up after dismissing the slumping Chicago White Sox. 

The Minnesota Twins were floating around in third place, right around .500, and not looking very dangerous. 

Entering today, however, the Twins stand only two-and-a-half games back of a Detroit team that has come back to Earth at a bad time to do that. 

Starting Monday, these two teams will get a chance to determine the final outcome of their race in a four-game set in Comerica Park. 

However, the other seven or eight games on the schedule could have just as big of an impact.  Let’s take a look at how each team finishes up:

 

Minnesota (11 Games Remaining)

Tonight at White Sox; three games at Royals; four games at Tigers; three games vs. Royals.

 

Detroit (12 Games Remaining)

Tonight and Friday at Indians; three games at White Sox; four games vs. Twins; three games vs. White Sox.

 

Assuming the Tigers win against the Indians tomorrow and pick up the half game, that leaves them three games up with 10 to go for both teams.  The weekend series against Kansas City and Chicago, respectively, should be interesting. 

Both are on the road, so that isn’t an issue, and both are playing teams that are out of the race.  To make it even more fair, both teams are 7-5 against their respective opponents, and both finish the season with three-game homestands against these same teams. So much for analyzing the remaining schedule.

That leaves it up to the four-game series in Detroit.  So far this year, the Twinkies have taken nine of 14 meetings from the Tigers, but they are an even 4-4 in games at Comerica Park. 

The pitching matchups could very well determine the outcome of the series, with the Tigers holding a big advantage in the first two games, sending out rookie Rick Porcello and flamethrower Justin Verlander against Chase Blackburn and Brian Duensing. 

It’s hard to say that it gets any better for Minnesota, with Carl Pavano taking the ball in the next game before their best pitcher in the second half in Scott Baker gets the ball in the series finale.  However, Detroit looks like they will have Nate Robertson and inexperienced Eddie Bonine for the next two games.

From an offensive standpoint, it’s hard to argue against the fact that the Twins have been far more productive recently, outscoring the Tigers 54-36 over the last 10 games. 

It’s also hard to argue against a lineup that’s anchored by Joe Mauer, who’s hitting .372 with 28 homers and 89 RBI heading into tonight, and doesn’t appear to have been all that affected by the injury to his partner-in-crime, Justin Morneau.

Outside of measuring the tangibles of this race, it’s hugely important not to underestimate the power of momentum. 

Right now, the Twins have a lot of mo’ going into the final stretch, while the Tigers are playing just to hang on.  The Tigers have struggled in September and there always seems to be a team that gets hot just in time to make the postseason. 

Will this be enough for Minnesota, or will Detroit keep it together long enough to grab the AL Central crown? 

I think the Twins have come too far to fall short now and are poised to go into Detroit and take three-of-four to complete their comeback.  If not, the Tigers are going to have to hope that they’re this year’s version of the ‘06 Cardinals, who backed into the playoffs and ended up winning the World Series—ironically enough, over the Tigers.