College Football Playoffs 2016: Updated Odds, Final Predictions for Semifinals
After what seems like a wait of forever and a day, the College Football Playoff gets underway Thursday night.
Top-seeded Clemson and fourth-seeded Oklahoma get things started at 4 p.m. at the Orange Bowl, where the nation's lone undefeated team will go head-to-head with arguably the nation's hottest team. The Sooners enter the game favorites despite being the last team to make the playoff.
In the other matchup, Alabama looks to atone for last season's loss at the hands of a Big Ten team by taking down Michigan State. The Crimson Tide have won 10 straight games after their loss to Ole Miss, while the Spartans have won two of their last three games against top-five opponents.
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With that in mind, here is a look at a preview for what to expect in the two semifinal contests.
Orange Bowl: No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Clemson (+3.5)
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN
If you can choose only one semifinal game and want to see a ton of scoring, Clemson-Oklahoma is the no-brainer. The Tigers and Sooners each boast powerful offenses juxtaposed by defenses that leave a little to be desired.
Oklahoma's opponents have scored 20-plus points in eight of its 12 games this season, including each of its last three regular-season games. Clemson has allowed 20-plus points on six occasions, and its last two opponents (North Carolina and South Carolina) went for a combined 69 points.
The result might then come down to which elite quarterback comes up with a bigger performance. For Clemson, it's third-place Heisman finisher Deshaun Watson. The sophomore dual threat threw for 3,512 yards and 30 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, adding another 887 yards and 11 scores on the ground. Being in the playoffs is a stark contrast to where he was at this time a year ago, recovering from an ACL tear that threatened to derail his promising career.
"You've got to keep him contained," Oklahoma linebacker Dominique Alexander said of Watson, per Jake Trotter of ESPN.com. "He's one of the top players in the country. He played for an undefeated team this year. To keep him contained, everybody has got to do their job. We've got to make more plays on him than he does on us."
On the opposite sideline is Baker Mayfield, who finished one spot behind Watson in the Heisman race. Mayfield threw for 3,389 yards and 33 touchdowns against five interceptions during the regular season, also posting 420 yards and seven scores on the ground. It's been a surprising rise to fame for Mayfield, who began his collegiate career as a walk-on at Texas Tech.
If we assume the two sides are a draw at quarterback, the Sooners might wind up becoming the favorite due to their advantage at running back. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon rank among the best one-two ground punches in the country, both averaging more than six yards per carry. They've combined for 22 touchdowns and more than 2,000 yards on the ground.
The Sooners also appear motivated by last year's 40-6 loss to Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
"There's a lot in that broadcast where they take shots at us," Mayfield said of ESPN commentators Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham, per Trotter. "We take that as disrespect. That motivates us."
Look for Oklahoma to get its win back in a first-to-40 contest.
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Alabama (-9.5)
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN
A battle of old-school mentalities may be putting it mildly. Michigan State and Alabama are both stylistic throwbacks, building themselves around strong defenses and offenses that love power running.
The Crimson Tide allowed 20 points just twice all season and haven't given up more than 16 since October. They single-handedly ruined Leonard Fournette's Heisman push, held Florida to 180 yards in the SEC Championship Game and kept Mississippi State's Dak Prescott to only six points in his final game against Alabama.
Only Boston College allowed fewer yards per game, while only Wisconsin and Ohio State allowed fewer points. Football Outsiders' FEI rankings, which take into account strength of schedule, ranked Alabama as by far the best defense in college football. It is first against both the run and pass.
"I think we've been good getting back to how it used to be, teams not wanting to play us, kind of creating a nightmare for offenses trying to move the ball in critical situations," Alabama linebacker Dillon Lee said in November, per Michael Casagrande of AL.com. "I think we do a good job of that this year and I think we're getting back to where the defensive trend used to be around here."
The Tide are also spurred by Heisman winner Derrick Henry, who scampered to the bronze trophy with a 1,986-yard, 23-touchdown campaign. The 6'3", 242-pound bruiser has ground defenses into submission all season, scoring a touchdown in every Alabama game and posting four 200-yard contests.
"That's what we pride ourselves on is playing fast, physical and violent at all times in every game, not just because it's Derrick Henry," MSU secondary coach and co-defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett said, per Mike Griffith of MLive.com. "But if you're going to pound a back up there, or if you're a team that runs your quarterback a lot, we expect them to get a lot of hits on him and guys flying in there, and he should feel it after the game."
Michigan State has been dependent on a three-headed monster of LJ Scott, Gerald Holmes and Madre London. They've opened up the field for senior quarterback Connor Cook, who threw for 2,921 yards and 24 touchdowns against five interceptions.
Overall, as always, Alabama's the on-paper favorite.
Odds via Oddsshark
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
