Rose Bowl 2016: Stanford vs. Iowa Pregame Comments, Predictions

The Iowa Hawkeyes might feel they've been disrespected by a large swath of the country this year, and they have their chance to silence their skeptics on New Year's Day in the Rose Bowl against the Stanford Cardinal.

The Pac-12 champions are very familiar with the event, having made the Rose Bowl in three of the last four years. Stanford's 15 appearances are also the third-most all-time behind USC and Michigan.

Iowa, meanwhile, hasn't traveled to Pasadena, California, since 1990 in a 46-34 defeat to Washington. The Hawkeyes will be looking to snap a three-game Rose Bowl losing skid.

This should be an interesting matchup in large part because Stanford and Iowa's strengths overlap quite a bit. Here's a look at a statistical comparison between the two teams:

	Stanford	Iowa
Total Offense	436.0 YPG (40th)	393.8 YPG (69th)
S&P+ Offense	42.1 (7th)	31.3 (48th)
Passing Offense	210.9 YPG (77th)	201.8 YPG (89th)
Rushing Offense	225.1 YPG (18th)	192.0 YPG (40th)
Total Defense	374.5 YPG (45th)	334.2 YPG (19th)
S&P+ Defense	26.1 (54th)	21.4 (26th)
Passing Defense	227.6 (71st)	219.3 YPG (60th)
Rushing Defense	146.9 YPG (38th)	114.9 YPG (11th)

Pregame Comments

For Stanford head coach David Shaw, the Cardinal's 11-2 record isn't a major surprise. On Wednesday, he discussed how he knew in training camp that the players were good enough to get to the Rose Bowl:

This was an important year for the program, as left tackle Kyle Murphy discussed, per ESPN's David Lombardi:

"

That's been a negative way to recruit against Stanford for the last few years—saying that all of (Jim) Harbaugh's guys are leaving and all of coach Shaw's guys are the foundation and the core of the program. After last season was a little disappointing, people were saying, "Oh yeah, it's come to fruition now."

...

I guess we really proved them wrong this year, having a great year and turning things around. Hopefully coach Shaw gets the respect that he deserves now.

"

Sitting atop Iowa's game plan is stopping—or at least limiting—Christian McCaffrey. The Heisman Trophy runner-up was the most dynamic player in the country during the regular season, and his 3,496 all-purpose yards set an NCAA record.

Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz knows he'll have his hands full with the Cardinal running back, per Mitch Sherman of ESPN.com:

Iowa will counter with a talented running back of its own, Jordan Canzeri.

The senior exited the Big Ten Championship Game after just two carries, and the fear among Hawkeyes fans was that he'd be unavailable or possibly less than 100 percent for the Rose Bowl. According to Big Ten Network's Mike Hall, that won't be an issue:

Without a fully healthy Canzeri, Iowa has little chance of upsetting Stanford.

Predictions

Canzeri will have a very good Rose Bowl. The problem for Iowa is that McCaffrey will have a great Rose Bowl.

The Heisman Trophy runner-up impacts a game in so many different ways that completely erasing him from the Stanford attack is almost impossible. Even if you can limit his effectiveness on the ground, you still have to worry about him as a receiver and return man.

Smart Football's Chris B. Brown wrote a thorough analysis of McCaffrey and how he fits into the Cardinal's offense. When Stanford starts running its halfback option, the Hawkeyes defense could face serious matchup problems:

"

Against zone coverages, the flat, stick and option route (which has settled between the linebackers) create a horizontal stretch on the underneath zone defenders that should produce an open receiver for a steady gain. But against man-to-man coverage, the stick concept pulls defenders out of the box leaving the option route one-on-one in space — and when that’s one-on-one is Christian McCaffrey versus a linebacker or safety, the defense is in trouble.

"

The saving grace for Iowa could be Kevin Hogan. The senior quarterback has had the best season of his college career in 2015, throwing for 2,644 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 68.6 percent passing.

Still, Hogan has had moments where he reverted back to old habits—particularly in Stanford's defeat to Northwestern and close victory over Washington State.

Iowa's 18 interceptions are tied for the ninth-most in the FBS, and in Desmond King, the Hawkeyes possess one of the best cornerbacks in the country. Hogan has been very efficient this year, but King will capitalize on any mistakes from the experienced passer.

Iowa will stay in the game by virtue of its ball-hawking defense, with one or two key turnovers swinging the momentum a bit.

But Stanford will be too much for Iowa, with McCaffrey and the Cardinal slowly wearing down the Hawkeye defense with time-consuming, physical drives. The game will be close for the first three quarters, and the Pac-12 champions will start putting some distance between themselves and their opponents in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Stanford 30, Iowa 17