Music City Bowl Betting: Texas A&M vs. Louisville Odds, Analysis and Pick

Even though Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is catching heat and may not be long for his job, he has directed the Aggies to three straight bowl wins, going 2-1 against the spread. Sumlin and company shoot to extend that run when they challenge the Louisville Cardinals in the Music City Bowl.

Music City Bowl point spread: The Aggies opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.3-24.8 Cardinals

Why the Aggies can cover the spread

Texas A&M started 5-0 this season, with wins over Arizona State, Arkansas and Mississippi State. The Aggies then lost to Alabama, 41-23, although that game might have been closer had the Crimson Tide not returned three A&M interceptions for touchdowns. The Aggies then lost to Ole Miss and Auburn. They won two more in a row but fell in the season finale at LSU, 19-7, to finish at 8-4 overall and 4-4 in SEC play.

A&M led the Tigers at the half but just couldn't generate anything from there against an LSU team playing for its coach's job.

On the season, the Aggies are averaging 423 yards of offense and 28 points per game. And while the defense has struggled against the run, it might match up well against Louisville's pass-oriented offense after holding foes to just 161 yards per game through the air this season.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Louisville started this season 2-4, with losses to eventual AAC champion Houston, eventual ACC champion Clemson and Florida State. But the schedule eased up, and the Cardinals won four in a row. Louisville then lost at home to Pittsburgh but concluded the regular season on a positive note, beating rival Kentucky in Lexington, 38-24, to finish at 7-5 overall and 5-3 in ACC action.

The Cardinals outgained the Wildcats by 198 yards and outrushed them by 222, the fifth time in their last six games they've outgained and outrushed their opponents.

For the season, Louisville is averaging 29 points per game, while its defense ranks 13th in the country overall and 15th against the run.

Smart pick

Louisville owns the advantage on defense, while Texas A&M is down to its third-string quarterback. Also, the Cardinals finished on a 5-1 run, while the Aggies lost four of their last seven. The smart money here lies with Louisville.

Betting trends

Louisville is 6-2 straight up and ATS in its last eight games against the SEC.

Texas A&M is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games.

The favorite is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six Music City Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.