Best-, Worst-Case Scenarios for Every Top 25 Team This Bowl Season
The most exciting part of the college football season is upon us. The postseason kicked off Saturday with five games, and those are mere appetizers for the holiday gridiron buffet that is to follow. With the College Football Playoff’s national title game, 80 teams will compete in 41 games, three of which will help crown a new national champion.
But the four playoff qualifiers aren’t the only teams with something to play for. Bowl games can be a springboard to a strong offseason and raise excitement for the year ahead. A Top 20 or Top 10 ranking is meaningful as well for both programs and their fanbases. At the same time, a blowout loss can leave a bad taste in a team’s collective mouth during the long offseason.
Here’s a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for the Top 25 as we enter postseason play.
25. Southern California
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2015 has been a year of turmoil for Southern California. The Trojans began the season as a dark-horse College Football Playoff contender, but the year threatened to spiral into turmoil when the team fired second-year coach Steve Sarkisian following alcohol-related issues. Interim coach Clay Helton brought stability, and the Trojans won the Pac-12 South with an 8-4 record before falling to Stanford in the league title game.
Now, they’ll get a Holiday Bowl matchup against a very solid 9-3 Wisconsin team. It’s a chance for Helton, who has won the job on a full-time basis, to show that USC made the right choice in handing him the reins.
Best-case scenario? The Trojans, motivated by Helton’s hiring, send Cody Kessler out on a high note with a strong offensive game, including big special teams plays from Adoree’ Jackson. Worst case? Wisconsin and Joel Stave show up in a big way, and the Badgers clinch a 10-win season by beating the Trojans. USC finishes 8-6 and out of the Top 25, and Helton’s honeymoon is over before it starts.
24. Temple
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One year ago, Temple finished 6-6 and still missed out on a bowl game, leaving the players and coaching staff devastated. The Owls left no room for doubt this season, going 10-3 and winning the American Athletic Conference’s East Division before falling to Houston in the AAC title game.
Their reward? A trip to the Boca Raton Bowl against Toledo, which recently lost head coach Matt Campbell to Iowa State. Matt Rhule will be hanging around Philly for the time being, which is good news for Owl fans.
Best-case scenario? A stingy defense led by All-America linebacker Tyler Matakevich holds the Rockets offense in check and Temple picks up its 11th win of the season.
Worst case? The Rockets offense blasts off, routs Temple and the Owls finish a 10-win season out of the Top 25.
23. Tennessee
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Butch Jones is making progress at Tennessee. A year ago, the Volunteers made their first bowl since 2010 and belted Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl to finish 7-6. This year, the Vols improved to 8-4 and earned an Outback Bowl date against No. 13 Northwestern on New Year’s Day. Tailback Jalen Hurd rushed for 1,158 yards and 11 touchdowns, and he’ll have a big task against Northwestern’s stingy defense.
Best-case scenario for the Vols? Hurd runs hard and well against the Wildcats, and quarterback Joshua Dobbs gets an inconsistent passing game moving well, picking up a win No. 9 and finishing in the Top 20.
Worst case? Northwestern grinds the offense into submission for its second bowl win since 1949, and Tennessee finishes the season unranked.
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22. Utah
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Utah had a very solid 2015 season. Following a 9-4 season in 2014, the Utes built on that success, spending time in the Top 5 nationally and finishing with a 10-3 record. Utah already defeated rival BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, holding off a late rally for a 35-28 victory. That, of course, was the program’s best-case scenario.
21. Navy
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Navy had a pretty good month. The Midshipmen finished the season 10-2 by beating rival Army for the 14th consecutive time, and head coach Ken Niumatalolo spurned BYU to stay with the program after interviewing with the Cougars. Jeff Call of the Deseret News said the Cougars offered Niumatalolo the job.
Yes, it was a good first year in the American Athletic Conference. Now, the Midshipmen get a home game for the Military Bowl against Pitt. It’s not a very sexy trip, but Navy should have a huge home-field advantage over the Panthers for standout quarterback Keenan Reynolds’ final game.
Best-case scenario? The offense gashes Pitt’s defense, Reynolds adds to his NCAA career touchdown record by reaching the end zone multiple times and Navy clinches a Top 20 finish in the final poll. Worst case? Reynolds is shut down by the Pitt front and the Midshipmen suffer a surprising loss at home, ending a great season on a down note.
20. LSU
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LSU and Les Miles had a roller-coaster season. The Tigers entered November 7-0 and No. 2 in the College Football Playoff Top 25. They ended it 8-3, and Miles very nearly lost his job following losses to Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss.
LSU decided to keep him on, but it’s clear that his future is much bleaker than it was at midseason. Miles’ players love him, and he now must motivate them for a Texas Bowl matchup against Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are improved, but their defense is awful, yielding 42.6 points per game, No. 125 nationally. Sophomore tailback Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 1,741 yards and 18 touchdowns, has to be licking his lips in anticipation.
Best-case scenario? Fournette goes for 200-plus yards and Miles shows LSU it made the right call in keeping him. Worst case? The defense can’t stop Tech’s high-powered offense, and LSU loses and falls out of the Top 25, leaving Miles on thin ice entering 2016.
19. Florida
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Jim McElwain has quickly endeared himself to Florida fans. The Gators looked rather moribund under Will Muschamp’s watch, but in his first year, McElwain won an SEC East title and succeeded despite an offense that was often offensive.
The 10-3 Gators can close out the season on a high against another first-year coach in a Citrus Bowl matchup with Michigan and Jim Harbaugh. That will be challenging, given Michigan’s excellent defense and the offense’s struggles in losses to Florida State and Alabama to close the season.
The Gators will need more than the 17 combined points they got against the Tide and Seminoles to knock off Michigan. Best-case scenario? Sophomore quarterback Treon Harris finds his groove, the defense rattles Michigan’s Jake Rudock and the Gators make their case for a Top 15 finish with a victory.
Worst case? Harris struggles, the offensive line doesn’t block and McElwain’s first season closes with a three-game losing streak.
18. Houston
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The most exciting part of the college football season is upon us. The postseason kicked off Saturday with five games, and those are mere appetizers for the holiday gridiron buffet that is to follow. With the College Football Playoff’s national title game, 80 teams will compete in 41 games, three of which will help crown a new national champion.
But the four playoff qualifiers aren’t the only teams with something to play for. Bowl games can be a springboard to a strong offseason and raise excitement for the year ahead. A Top 20 or Top 10 ranking is meaningful as well for both programs and their fanbases. At the same time, a blowout loss can leave a bad taste in a team’s collective mouth during the long offseason.
Here’s a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for the Top 25 as we enter postseason play.
17. Baylor
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Every year, there’s a team that wins the “We Don’t Want To Be Here” award during bowl season. This year, Baylor looks like a lock for that mythical trophy. One year after just missing the College Football Playoff, the Bears finished 9-3 with losses in three of their final four games.
Their top two quarterbacks, Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham, are out for the season with injuries. And this week, Baylor head coach Art Briles told reporters that standout wide receiver Corey Coleman and star tailback Shock Linwood will miss the Russell Athletic Bowl against North Carolina with injuries.
Quarterback Chris Johnson will lead the Bears offense, but will anyone show up around him? Best-case scenario? Tailback Johnny Jefferson and wide receiver KD Cannon pick up some of the slack and Baylor surprises the Tar Heels.
Worst case? They’re unmotivated and all the injuries add up to a dispiriting bowl defeat.
16. Oklahoma State
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Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State took a step back in 2014, but the Cowboys took a major step forward in 2015. OSU finished 10-2 and was in contention for the Big 12 title until a season-finale loss to Oklahoma and averaged 41.2 points per game, No. 9 nationally.
Sophomore quarterback Mason Rudolph was excellent, throwing for 3,591 yards with 21 touchdowns against nine interceptions, including three games with 400-plus yards passing.
A Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss would be an excellent platform for 2016. Best-case scenario? The Cowboys harass Chad Kelly consistently and Rudolph looks like the guy who threw for 430 yards against Baylor, not the guy limited against Oklahoma by a foot injury. The Cowboys make a legit case for a final Top 10 ranking.
Worst case? Rudolph isn’t fully healthy and Kelly and Laquon Treadwell have a field day against a sometimes shaky defense. OSU goes from 10-0 to out of the final Top 20 after losing its final three games.
15. Oregon
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It was an interesting year in Eugene. Oregon began the post-Marcus Mariota era in ugly fashion, starting 3-3 with home losses to Utah and Washington State. But once graduate transfer quarterback Vernon Adams got healthy, the Ducks looked like they hadn’t missed a step.
Oregon finished the season on a six-game win streak. In that span, Adams threw for 21 touchdowns against four interceptions and passed for 300-plus yards four times. Oregon has scored at least 44 points in four of those wins.
In the Alamo Bowl, they get another potent offense in TCU and quarterback Trevone Boykin.
Best-case scenario? Plenty of points are scored, but Oregon’s defense generates a turnover or two on Boykin, which ends up being the difference in a high-powered win.
Worst case? Adams looks shaky, Oregon can’t keep up with the Horned Frogs and drops out of the final Top 20 after an ugly defeat.
14. Michigan
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Jim Harbaugh’s first season back in Ann Arbor couldn’t have gone much better. He turned around a program that looked moribund under Brady Hoke, going from 5-7 in 2014 to 9-3 entering a Citrus Bowl matchup against Florida.
The only losses came to Utah, Michigan State and Ohio State, and graduate transfer Jake Rudock was a solid leader for the offense, throwing for 2,739 yards and 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
Florida and fellow first-year coach Jim McElwain provide an interesting matchup. The best-case scenario for Michigan? A defense that allowed 17.2 points per game, No. 11 nationally, harasses quarterback Treon Harris all game, picking him off multiple times, and the Wolverines take an easy win that makes their case for a final Top 10 ranking.
Worst case? Cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III makes multiple interceptions of Rudock and Florida takes a win over the Wolverines, ending Harbaugh’s first season at Michigan’s helm on a sour note.
13. Northwestern
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2015 was a great year to be in Evanston. Following consecutive 5-7 seasons, the Wildcats and Pat Fitzgerald bounced back in a huge way with a 10-2 record. Their only losses came to Iowa and Michigan.
The 2013 Gator Bowl marked NU’s first postseason win since 1949, and it would love to add a second in the Outback Bowl against Tennessee. Best-case scenario? The stout defense, which allows 16.4 points per game, No. 7 nationally, contains Josh Dobbs and the Vols and the Wildcats get another bowl win.
Worst-case? NU can’t handle Tennessee’s offense and speed and the Outback winds up in a disappointing defeat that drops the Cats out of the final Top 20 in the polls.
12. Ole Miss
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This season has to be frustrating for Hugh Freeze. The Rebels defeated Alabama for a second consecutive year and looked like College Football Playoff contenders early on. But after a 9-3 season, the talented core of the 2013 recruiting class (left tackle Laremy Tunsil, wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche) is likely to leave Oxford without an SEC West title.
Nkemdiche has announced he’s entering the NFL draft, per Daniel Paulling and Hugh Kellenberger of the Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger after being suspended for the Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma State following a bizarre incident that saw him fall out of a window in an Atlanta hotel, where marijuana was discovered in his room.
The matchup should feature plenty of offense, and Ole Miss will likely be motivated to prove that a 42-3 Peach Bowl rout to TCU was just a fluke. Best-case scenario? Quarterback Chad Kelly and Treadwell hook up for multiple touchdowns, the Rebels win and they finish in the final Top 10.
Worst case? Kelly makes multiple interceptions, OSU rolls the Rebs and Freeze faces questions about if he’s plateaued in Oxford.
11. TCU
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2015 was a “what could have been” year for TCU. After barely missing the College Football Playoff in 2014, the Horned Frogs were expected to contend for a berth this season. Behind senior quarterback Trevone Boykin, the offense was as potent as ever, putting up 41.8 points per game, No. 8 nationally.
But a defense decimated by graduation losses and injuries couldn’t hold serve, and a 49-29 loss to Oklahoma State ultimately eliminated TCU from title contention. The 10-2 Horned Frogs will get a chance at an 11th win in the Alamo Bowl against Oregon, a game that should feature points aplenty.
Best-case scenario? TCU and Boykin shred Oregon’s defense and take home a thrilling win. Worst case? The Ducks and quarterback Vernon Adams cut through TCU like a hot knife through butter and Boykin can’t keep up. TCU falls to 10-3 and out of the final Top 15 nationally.
10. North Carolina
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A crucial season for Larry Fedora and North Carolina got off to a very ugly start, with a 17-13 loss to a bad South Carolina team. But memories of that night are long forgotten now. The Tar Heels finished the regular season on an 11-game win streak, won the ACC Coastal and seriously pushed Clemson before falling 45-37 in the ACC title game.
Marquise Williams was a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, throwing for 2,829 yards and 21 touchdowns. And under the direction of new defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, UNC’s defense was much improved, allowing 22.6 points per game, No. 35 nationally.
The Heels will get a chance to finish off the season right with a Russell Athletic Bowl date against Baylor. The Bears will be banged up; their top two quarterbacks, as well as receiver Corey Coleman and tailback Shock Linwood, will all miss the game with injuries.
Best-case scenario? UNC comes to Orlando with something to prove, routs the decimated Bears and clinches a Top 10 finish in the final polls. Worst case? The Bears pull an upset and leave Fedora and Co. with a bad taste in their mouths for the offseason.
9. Florida State
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Following huge NFL draft and graduation losses, many expected Florida State to take a small step back this season. That’s exactly what the Seminoles did. They lost to Clemson and Georgia Tech, and their three-year run of ACC titles that included a national title and a College Football Playoff appearance came to an end with a 10-2 record. Sophomore Dalvin Cook emerged as one of the nation’s top tailbacks, rushing for 1,658 yards and 18 touchdowns.
The “consolation” prize for a 10-win season? A Peach Bowl bid to face off with upstart Houston and coach Tom Herman.
Will Florida State have the motivation following two years of contending for a national title? That’s the most important question. Best-case scenario for the Seminoles? They show up in Atlanta ready to play and shut down mobile quarterback Greg Ward Jr. for a dominant win.
Worst case? Players’ minds are elsewhere, Houston pulls off a stunning upset and FSU finishes the season outside of the Top 15 nationally.
8. Notre Dame
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With an experienced core returning from an 8-5 team, 2015 was expected to be special for Notre Dame. And it was certainly much better. The Fighting Irish finished 10-2 and were two plays away from a shot at the College Football Playoff. A late two-point conversion failed in a 24-22 loss at No. 1 Clemson, and No. 6 Stanford took a 38-36 win on a final-play field goal.
Expected starting quarterback Malik Zaire was lost for the season with a broken ankle at Virginia, but backup DeShone Kizer proved a quick study, throwing for 2,600 yards with 19 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Linebacker Jaylon Smith proved himself as one of the nation’s best overall defenders.
A Fiesta Bowl win over Ohio State would certainly cap the season perfectly. It’s Notre Dame’s first “major” bowl since the 2012 national title game loss to Alabama, and the Irish shouldn’t lack for motivation.
Best-case scenario? Smith and a talented defense limit Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott and the Irish get their 11th win by bashing the Buckeyes. Worst case? Defensive end Joey Bosa harasses Kizer all game and he’s intercepted multiple times. Ohio State wins easily, and Brian Kelly’s group finishes outside of the final Top 10.
7. Ohio State
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For most programs, 11-1 would be a very special season. For Ohio State, 2015 was probably a bit of a disappointment. The 2014 Buckeyes set the bar high, emerging earlier than expected and charging to a national title. With virtually all key players returning, nothing less would be acceptable this fall.
However, a string of sluggish efforts finally caught up with Meyer’s bunch in a 17-14 final-play loss to Michigan State, ending the hopes of another national title. OSU will have to settle for a Fiesta Bowl matchup with No. 8 Notre Dame.
Will the Buckeyes be motivated for anything less than a playoff game? We’ll see. This will be the final collegiate game for talented tailback Ezekiel Elliott, and it’d be a surprise if pass-rushing star Joey Bosa returns for his senior season.
Best-case scenario? Meyer has his team’s ear and Ohio State rolls past the Fighting Irish in the desert. Worst-case? Elliott, Bosa and others have already checked out mentally, Notre Dame takes an easy win and Ohio State falls out of the final Top 10 ranking.
6. Stanford
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2015 was a return to form for Stanford. The Cardinal won Pac-12 titles in 2012 and 2013 but slipped to 8-5 last fall. The emergence of Christian McCaffrey as one of the nation’s best players helped David Shaw’s team return to national prominence. The 11-2 Cardinal lost to Northwestern and Oregon but won another Pac-12 title by beating Southern California.
McCaffrey finished as the Heisman Trophy runner-up after rushing for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns. He was also Stanford’s leading receiver with 41 catches for 540 yards and four touchdowns and led the nation in all-purpose yardage.
Now, Stanford hopes to cap its season with a Rose Bowl win over Iowa. Best-case scenario? McCaffrey runs over, around and through Iowa’s defense and the Cardinal win easily, finishing the season with a Top 5 national ranking.
Worst case? C.J. Beathard and Iowa’s run game control the clock, keep Stanford’s offense off the field and the Cardinal lose, dropping out of the final Top 10 in the process.
5. Iowa
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Iowa authored one of this season’s best stories in college football. Following an ugly 7-6 season in 2014, veteran coach Kirk Ferentz rededicated himself to his program, and the results were excellent. The Hawkeyes finished the regular season 12-0, and it took a 22-play drive from Michigan State to squeeze out a 16-13 victory in the Big Ten title game. New starting quarterback C.J. Beathard was a mobile force, passing for 2,570 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Iowa’s reward for losing the title game? Its first Rose Bowl trip in 25 years and a date with No. 6 Stanford.
The Hawkeyes gained national respect from pundits following the Big Ten title loss, and a win over Stanford and Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey would give them even more.
Best-case scenario? The Hawks hold McCaffrey in check and a three-headed rushing attack grinds out a Rose Bowl win. Worst case? McCaffrey, the nation’s all-purpose yardage leader, runs wild, Stanford wins in a rout, Iowa finishes outside the Top 10 and the goodwill built by 2015 fades as the offseason begins.
4. Oklahoma
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A year ago, Oklahoma was expected to be a College Football Playoff contender, but the Sooners never got it together in an 8-5 season that ended with a 40-6 Russell Athletic Bowl loss at the hands of Clemson. This year, the Sooners are a far different team, thanks to the Air Raid offense and new starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has thrown for 3,389 yards and 35 touchdowns. OU averages 45.8 points per game, No. 3 nationally.
They’ve earned a rematch with the Tigers, this time with considerably more on the line in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Does Bob Stoops’ team have what it takes to shut down Deshaun Watson and Clemson’s high-powered offense?
The best-case scenario for Oklahoma is obvious. The Sooners and Mayfield strafe Clemson’s defense and harass Watson in an Orange Bowl win, and then take home a national title with the second bowl win over Alabama in three seasons. With a title, Stoops would own the longest gap between national titles for a college football coach, as Jason Kersey of the Oklahoman reported.
"We believe in long-term relationships. Once you're a member of this family, we want to continue that," OU president David Boren said. "I wouldn't trade Bob Stoops for any coach —any coach — in the country.”
Worst case? Mayfield is intercepted multiple times, Clemson wins in another rout and Sooner fans question whether Big Game Bob can win again when it really matters.
3. Michigan State
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2015 was the year where Michigan State finally broke through. Mark Dantonio’s team is 24-3 over the last two seasons, with its only losses coming to Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oregon. This fall, the Spartans put everything together at the right time. Despite a controversial 39-38 loss to Nebraska, they defeated the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East title and outlasted Iowa 16-13 in an epic Big Ten Championship.
Their reward? A Cotton Bowl date with Alabama. The Tide whipped the Spartans 49-7 in the 2011 Capital One Bowl, their only previous meeting, but this is a far different MSU team. Senior quarterback Connor Cook is steady and unflappable, and defensive end Shilique Calhoun is one of the nation’s best pass-rushers.
The best-case scenario for Michigan State is clear: Win a grind-it-out game over Alabama and then shut down Clemson to bring a national title back to East Lansing. Worst case? The Tide and Derrick Henry run all over the Spartan defense and prove that MSU doesn’t belong on the nation’s biggest stage just yet.
2. Alabama
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In a season full of chaos, Alabama and Nick Saban were a constant. For the second consecutive year, the Crimson Tide shook off an early-season loss to Ole Miss to win the SEC and make the College Football Playoff.
After giving up five turnovers in a 43-37 defeat to the Rebels, Alabama has won 10 consecutive games and looks like one of the nation’s elite teams. Workhorse junior tailback Derrick Henry won the Heisman Trophy after rushing 339 times for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns, and a young defense came together, allowing 14.3 points per game, No. 3 nationally.
Now, the Tide get another shot at a Big Ten opponent in the Cotton Bowl. Michigan State is also built around a power run game and strong defense and isn’t nearly as flashy as the Ohio State team that beat Alabama in last year’s Sugar Bowl.
Best-case scenario? Henry carries 40 times for 200 yards and Alabama grinds out a victory over the Spartans, then dominates Deshaun Watson and Clemson in the national title game. Worst case? The Tide fall to another Big Ten East opponent in the playoffs and Saban spends the offseason answering questions about whether he’s lost his touch in big games.
1. Clemson
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2015 has been a special year in Clemson. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are 13-0 for the first time in their history and have been the No. 1 team from the first College Football Playoff Top 25 on. Sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson, fresh off a third-place finish in the Heisman Trophy, is the nation’s best quarterback, and a defense keyed by All-America defensive end Shaq Lawson and cornerback Mackensie Alexander hasn’t missed a step despite massive graduation losses from 2014.
The Tigers are in perfect position for their first national title since 1981, their only championship. They’ll start with an Orange Bowl rematch against Oklahoma, which should be far more formidable than the Sooner team they waxed 40-6 in the 2014 Russell Athletic Bowl.
Best-case scenario? Clemson outscores Oklahoma and then edges Swinney’s alma mater, Alabama, to bring another national title back to South Carolina. Worst case? The Tigers can’t stop Oklahoma and athletic quarterback Baker Mayfield and lose an Orange Bowl shootout to Bob Stoops, tainting an excellent season.
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