10 Bold Predictions for 2015-16 College Football Bowl Season
At long last, it's here. When Arizona kicks off against home-standing New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday afternoon, college football's bowl season will have officially begun.
It's a cornucopia of 41 games, beginning in Albuquerque and winding up on Jan. 11 with the national championship game in Glendale, Arizona. In between, we'll see fascinating matchups, some teams who clearly were ready to finish the 2015 season a month ago and outstanding individual efforts.
Oh yeah, and we'll crown the second College Football Playoff champion. For its faults (too many 5-7 and 6-6 teams involved), college bowl season can produce truly compelling football—or at least some great TV to watch with your family during holiday gatherings.
We don't know exactly how the games will unfold, but we have some ideas. Here are 10 bold predictions for what will happen this college football bowl season.
LSU's Leonard Fournette Gashes Texas Tech's Defense
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Remember back in October when Leonard Fournette was the de facto Heisman Trophy winner? No defense could stop the LSU sophomore tailback, and the Tigers were a Top 10 team. Fournette would surely run away with the stiff-arm trophy, and Les Miles' crew would make the College Football Playoff.
What happened?
November happened. After rushing for at least 150 yards in each of his first seven games, Fournette carried 38 times for 122 yards in losses to Alabama and Arkansas. LSU finished 8-3, and Miles barely survived with his job, as Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer reported.
That said, Fournette still had a pretty darn good season, rushing for 1,741 yards and 18 touchdowns and averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He has an appealing matchup in the Texas Bowl against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were improved this season at 7-5 but have one of the nation’s worst defenses, allowing 42.6 points per game and ranking No. 125 nationally.
Fournette will gash Tech for 259 yards and end his sophomore season at an even 2,000, and LSU will get an easy win, taking some much-needed momentum into the offseason.
North Carolina's Marquise Williams Will Rip Baylor
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Every postseason, we encounter the "team that doesn't want to be there"—a team that, for various reasons, had a lot more to play for in November than it does now. It's the kind of team that gives you legit reasons to question its motivation. This year that team is Baylor.
The Bears began 2015 with hopes of winning the Big 12 title and making the College Football Playoff. They ended it 9-3 and in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Florida, facing off against 11-2 North Carolina. The Bears lost three of their final four games, including a season-ending defeat to Texas accomplished largely behind their fourth-string quarterback.
Meanwhile, North Carolina enters with something to prove after a hard-fought 45-37 ACC Championship Game loss to Clemson.
Marquise Williams leads a potent offense as one of the nation's best dual-threat quarterbacks. He threw for 21 touchdowns against nine interceptions with 2,829 passing yards and added 867 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Baylor's pass defense has been shaky, allowing 232.7 yards per game and ranking No. 77 nationally.
Expect Williams to chew up yardage through the air and on the ground. Baylor will put together an uninspired effort, and the Tar Heels will win game No. 12 with ease.
Luke Falk and Washington State Will Pass All over Miami
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It was a special season for Washington State and coach Mike Leach.
Following an ugly 3-9 season in 2014, the Cougars had a huge rebound this fall, going 8-4 and earning a Sun Bowl bid against Miami (Fla.). Sophomore quarterback Luke Falk was the engine for Washington State's offense. He finished fourth nationally in passing yards with 4,266, throwing for 36 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
It's no coincidence that Wazzu struggled in the season finale while Falk was sidelined with a concussion, falling 45-10 to Washington.
He's a perfect fit for Leach's Air Raid system, throwing for at least 300 yards in nine games and surpassing 500 twice. He'll face off against a Miami defense that is playing out the string under interim coach Larry Scott while trying to impress new coach Mark Richt.
Miami actually had a very solid pass defense, allowing 196.3 pass yards per game at No. 29 nationally. But the Hurricanes haven't faced a pass-first system quite like Washington State's. Expect Falk to pass early and often against Miami, rolling up 400 yards in a big Sun Bowl victory.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Jake Rudock and Michigan Will Beat Florida
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Jake Rudock has come a long way in a year.
Last year at this time, Rudock was unloved by Iowa fans and essentially playing out the string in a Hawkeye uniform, piloting the Hawks through a dismal 45-28 TaxSlayer Bowl loss to Tennessee. Transferring to Michigan has rejuvenated Rudock and lifted the Wolverines, who rebounded from 5-7 to 9-3 in coach Jim Harbaugh's first season.
Rudock brought stability under center, throwing for 2,739 yards with 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions. His reward? Finishing his career in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl against another turnaround team, Florida. The Gators won with defense, allowing 16.5 points per game (No. 8 nationally) and 295.4 yards per game (No. 6 nationally).
However, Florida's offense has been awful since quarterback Will Grier was sent to the sidelines following a midseason positive test for performance-enhancing drugs. The Gators managed just a safety in a 27-2 loss to rival Florida State and also sputtered in a 29-15 SEC Championship Game defeat to Alabama.
Expect Rudock to take care of the ball and make enough big plays to lift Michigan to a tight win over Jim McElwain and the Gators.
J.T. Barrett Cements His Role as Ohio State Beats Notre Dame
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J.T. Barrett has had an odd sophomore season. Barrett was the toast of Columbus in 2014, leading the Buckeyes to the brink of a Big Ten title before suffering a season-ending broken ankle. While he recuperated, Cardale Jones finished the drill and won a national title for the Buckeyes, and then Jones beat out Barrett for the starting role in training camp.
Barrett spent much of the season as Jones' backup, but Jones' inconsistent play finally pushed Barrett into the starting lineup for good in November. Against Michigan, Barrett showed what he could be, rushing for 139 yards and three touchdowns and passing for another score in a 42-13 rout.
While the Fiesta Bowl is a step back from the College Football Playoff, Barrett has reason to be excited. It's a platform for his junior season and a chance to show Urban Meyer that he can handle the offense with ease. Beating Notre Dame would do just that.
The Irish and All-America linebacker Jaylon Smith have plenty to play for, but a 38-36 loss to Stanford showed that their defense is vulnerable. Expect Barrett to pass for 250 yards and rush for 100 and tailback Ezekiel Elliott to rush for 100-plus in his final game in a Buckeye uniform.
It'll be a successful game as Ohio State ends 2015 and begins 2016 on a high note.
Penn State and Christian Hackenberg Will Beat Georgia
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Is there a more polarizing quarterback in America than Christian Hackenberg?
Penn State's junior passer has an NFL frame at 6'4", 228 pounds, and an NFL-ready arm. But he doesn't have results. A year ago he had 12 touchdowns against 15 interceptions while being sacked 44 times behind the Nittany Lions' leaky line.
This year his numbers are slightly better (16 touchdowns against five interceptions), although his passing yards are down. He has 2,386 yards entering the TaxSlayer Bowl against Georgia vs. 2,977 through 13 games in 2014. Penn State has also protected him slightly better, with 39 sacks allowed through 12 games.
In Jacksonville, however, he'll get a Georgia team in transition. The Bulldogs fired Mark Richt following another 9-3 season, and while they hired Kirby Smart as the new head coach, he'll have nothing to do with this game as he will be helping Alabama in the College Football Playoff.
Georgia's motivation is questionable, playing without Richt and both coordinators. Expect Hackenberg to show Penn State fans why NFL scouts view him so favorably by lighting up the Bulldog defense in a TaxSlayer Bowl rout.
Oregon and Vernon Adams Will Outduel TCU
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At midseason, there was serious reason to wonder about Oregon.
The Ducks appeared to be in a post-Marcus Mariota hangover at 3-3 following an overtime loss to Washington State. As it turned out, all the Ducks really needed for a turnaround was a healthy Vernon Adams. The graduate transfer quarterback was hampered by a broken finger for the first half of the season, but he’s been a force while healthy.
Over the last six games, Adams has thrown for 21 touchdowns against four interceptions and passed for 300-plus yards four times. Oregon is 6-0 in that span and has scored at least 44 points in four of those wins.
In the Alamo Bowl, he gets a tasty matchup in the TCU defense. The Horned Frogs allow 26.1 points per game (No. 59 nationally) and 214.3 passing yards per game (No. 51 nationally). They have struggled at times against fast-paced offenses. While they beat Baylor in double overtime in a rain-soaked 28-21 slog, they just escaped Texas Tech 55-52 and fell 49-29 to Oklahoma State.
Adams told the Oregonian's Tyson Alger that he views the Alamo Bowl as an NFL audition.
"I feel like it is. I try not to look at it like that, but deep down I think it is," Adams said. "If our team plays well and I do good in this game and the East-West Shrine Game, then hopefully I get an invite to the combine or something and pro day. From here on out it's got to be, I got to play my A-game."
Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frogs will score their share of points, but Adams will make Ducks fans wish he had another season of eligibility with a 300-yard passing night in an Oregon win.
Deshaun Watson and Clemson Will Roll Oklahoma
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Oh, you again?
That’s what Clemson and Oklahoma fans must be saying to each other.
A year ago, Clemson ripped an unmotivated OU team in a 40-6 rout in the Russell Athletic Bowl. The Tigers took the next step, going from a 10-win team to 13-0, ACC champions and the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
But the Sooners enjoyed a surprising turnaround fueled by the Air Raid offense and transfer quarterback Baker Mayfield, going from 8-5 to 11-1 and the No. 4 playoff seed.
Their reward? An Orange Bowl date with the Tigers in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Both are different teams from a year ago. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson didn't play against the Sooners while recovering from a torn ACL, and the Sooners defense should be better than it was last year. OU allows 20.8 points per game and is No. 21 nationally in scoring defense.
Oklahoma has yet to face a quarterback of Watson's caliber. TCU's Trevone Boykin missed his team's game against OU with an injury, as did Baylor's Seth Russell. Clemson's talented receiver corps will be the difference. Watson will pass for 300 yards and rush for 100 as Clemson rolls to the national title game.
Michigan State Will Upset Alabama
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A year ago, Alabama and coach Nick Saban rebounded from an early loss to Ole Miss to win the SEC title and make the College Football Playoff. This year: an early loss to Ole Miss followed by another run to an SEC championship.
That sounds awfully familiar, as does the Crimson Tide's opponent. Last year, the Tide had a Big Ten East foe in Ohio State. This year that foe is Michigan State. The Spartans are underdogs to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, but they've shown guts in late-game wins over Michigan, Ohio State and in the Big Ten title game against Iowa (a win clinched with a 22-play drive that ate up nine-plus minutes in the fourth quarter).
Senior quarterback Connor Cook is unflappable, and the Spartans' run defense is excellent, allowing 113.1 rushing yards per game and ranking No. 7 nationally. Heisman Trophy-winning tailback Derrick Henry is a force who thrives on volume, piling up 339 carries, including a combined 90 against Auburn and Florida.
But he won't be able to wear down the Spartan front.
Henry will get 150 yards, but Alabama will struggle to move the ball otherwise, and another late drive led by Cook sends Sparty to the national title game.
Clemson's Defense Will Key National Title Victory
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Thirty-four years. Thirty-four long years.
By the time the College Football Playoff kicks off, that's how long it will have been since Clemson played for a national championship. The Tigers clinched the program's only national title with an Orange Bowl win over Nebraska on New Year's Day 1982. Now they're finally in position again to bring a second title back to "Death Valley."
The Tigers have been the nation's clear No. 1 team from the first College Football Playoff Top 25 through the final regular-season ranking. But there's still some apprehension about this team, even though Clemson has long since shed its reputation of struggling in important situations.
That ends in the desert.
A strong defense led by All-American defensive end Shaq Lawson and standout defensive backs Mackensie Alexander and Jayron Kearse gives Michigan State's Connor Cook a very long night. Cook is intercepted twice, Deshaun Watson throws three touchdowns and Clemson ends its fans' wait by giving coach Dabo Swinney his first national championship.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
