Oregon Football: 2016 Is Make or Break for Ducks Head Coach Mark Helfrich

For the second consecutive season, the FCS AP All-American quarterback is moving up a division. For the second consecutive season, the FCS AP All-American quarterback is trading in the Big Sky for the Pac-12.

Oregon specifically.

The Ducks made things official on Tuesday and announced that Montana State quarterback Dakota Prukop had signed the necessary papers to join the program, pending acceptance into the school’s graduate programs this spring. The news had been widely reported earlier, first by Fox Sports’ Bruce Feldman, and ended a week-long mini-drama surrounding the status of the most intriguing transfer player in the country.

The news was naturally met with delight in the Pacific Northwest and among the colorful Oregon fans across the country. After several games this season of seeing not-Vernon Adams Jr. take snaps at quarterback, the addition of Prukop surely would help the team remain in contention in the tough Pac-12 North in 2016.

While that may turn out to be the case, the transfer of yet another FCS product to likely start at the most important position on the field should also be a red flag for those who bleed green and yellow. The arrival of Prukop can be hailed if you want, but it should also underscore that this is shaping up to be a make-or-break offseason for head coach Mark Helfrich.

Helfrich’s seat may be relatively toasty among the fanbase for “slipping” to 9-3 this year, but it does not at all appear to be warm with the administration in Eugene. A season after losing the best player in school history and getting to the cusp of a national title, Helfrich has no reason to worry about his job for either 2016 or 2017.

But that doesn’t excuse the fact that the next several months will be crucial in shaping the future for Helfrich at the only head coaching job he’s ever wanted. Running a program as prominent as Oregon means high expectations, and we’ve reached the critical turning point in his tenure where things could go a number of different ways.

The first challenge? It all starts with the quarterback.

It’s no secret that the Ducks have had their fair share of drama when it comes to signal-callers, dating to the Joey Harrington days when many college football fans first became aware of the fact that the plucky little team from the Pacific Northwest with flashy uniforms could play pretty well.

While the stability provided by Marcus Mariota and Darron Thomas over five seasons produced two magical title runs, that has been far from the norm on campus ever since that giant billboard of Harrington came down from Times Square many moons ago. After all, it was Jeremiah Masoli who bookended a Rose Bowl appearance with a transfer in and out of the school. That’s to say nothing of the spinning wheel at the position in the latter years of the Mike Bellotti era. 

That all brings us to life after Mariota. A rough transition from the Heisman Trophy winner was to be expected, but the stellar play of Adams when he was healthy was the bright spot in an up-and-down campaign for the Ducks. His move from Eastern Washington to Oregon was one of the more interesting offseason moves in August but seemed to pay off with each passing week down the stretch.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Yet, make no bones about it, the fact that a top-tier program like Oregon even had to bring in an FCS quarterback said worlds about the position’s development behind Mariota. Despite knowing there was a firm end date to the Heisman winner’s time in Eugene, there was no budding prodigy waiting in the wings to take over the team’s fast-paced offense nor a hot-shot 5-star freshman coming in either.

That same song has played out again in 2015 with Prukop coming in to provide some much-needed insurance on the depth chart in addition to boosting the competition to replace Adams. While the Ducks do have former Elite 11 quarterback Travis Jonsen likely returning for spring practice after his freshman year was cut short by injury, it appears the staff does not want to put all their faith for the upcoming year in him.

Looking at upcoming recruiting classes, the Ducks have been in the running for some elite quarterbacks but have been well down the pecking order when it comes to landing one in the inevitable domino effect of commitments at the position. While it’s notable that the program has been in the mix for so many highly rated signal-callers the past few seasons, at some point there comes the time for them to actually land one.

Recruiting FCS transfers may be a band aid that works out OK in the short term, but eventually the team is going to have to go in and get things fixed properly—and that starts with developing a recruit from high school into a Pac-12-caliber starter. Also keep in mind that while Adams was battle-tested against FBS teams with the film to prove it, Prukop has not experienced anywhere close to the level of success his predecessor did at the FCS level.

Expecting lightening to strike twice is probably unwise if you’re a Ducks fan.

On top of sorting things out at quarterback for 2016 and beyond, Helfrich will also be faced with other key decisions when it comes to his staff. Less of a concern will probably be who replaces now-UCF head coach Scott Frost.

Receivers coach Matt Lubick is likely the favorite to take on the role as offensive coordinator and for good reason (he has already been tapped for the Alamo Bowl). He’s a sharp coach who has experience outside of the Oregon system and would be deserving of the title-bump thanks to Frost’s departure. 

Perhaps more interesting may be who replaces Frost as the quarterbacks coach. Graduate assistant and former UO starter Nate Costa is handling interim duties at the position during bowl practices, but Helfrich would be wise in bringing in somebody from the outside with a history of recruiting and developing signal-callers. Money shouldn’t be an issue at a place like Oregon, and a co-offensive coordinator title would likely seal the deal with a number of quality coaches from around the country if he chooses to go in that direction. 

Eric Gay/Associated Press

The most crucial moves, however, are on the defensive side of the ball. It seems unlikely that Helfrich would sack a long-time staff member like coordinator Don Pellum, but the time has come to bring in somebody who has been a coordinator before and has a history of doing more with less.

That could mean a return of former Ducks defensive back Justin Wilcox, who has had his detractors from his stint at USC and Washington but proved he’s plenty capable during his tenure at Tennessee and Boise State before that.

No matter who it is, it’s not hyperbole to think that it will be the most important moves that Helfrich can make and a potential game-changer when it comes to his own coaching trajectory in Eugene. Changes have to be made if the team is to keep pace with the Stanford’s of the league and contend for conference titles into the future. 

Make the wrong choice and the hot seat could warm up quite quickly in 2016. Fix things defensively and find a long-term answer at quarterback and Helfrich could once again be preparing for a New Year’s Six bowl game this time of year instead of bracing for a trip to San Antonio. 

No reasonable college football fan or analyst is calling for Helfrich to turn things upside down in search of answers but, given what has transpired for the second offseason in a row, the time between the team’s Alamo Bowl appearance and the season opener will be as critical as they come for the program’s future.

Bryan Fischer is a national college football columnist for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.