Which 5-7 Bowl Team Is Most Likely to Win?

And, now, a demonstration in just how much we really care about college football bowl games. That, or Krampus has arrived early. Either/or.

As you likely know by now, there weren't enough bowl eligible (i.e. at least 6-6) teams to fill all 40 bowl slots this postseason. As a result, the NCAA determined five-win teams with the highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) number could go bowling if they accepted the invitation. 

Those sub-.500 teams are: 

San Jose State (vs. Georgia State in the Cure Bowl)

Nebraska (vs. UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl)

Minnesota (vs. Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl)

The general bemoaning of 5-7 bowl teams aside, two of the three are actually favored in their games according to OddsShark.com: 

Bowl	Team	Team	Opening Line
Cure Bowl	San Jose State (5-7)	Georgia State (6-6)	San Jose State (-4)
Foster Farms Bowl	Nebraska (5-7)	UCLA (8-4)	UCLA (-6.5)
Quick Lane Bowl	Minnesota (5-7)	Central Michigan (7-5)	Minnesota (-6)

Of the two, Minnesota is the bigger favorite. Yes, lines are created to entice bettors, but sometimes Vegas knows something, too. It turns out the Gophers might actually have a shot at winning their bowl game. 

If for no other reason, the Gophers have reason to get in some extra practices.

But we're going with Minnesota as the most likely to win because there's an obvious mismatch in the Foster Farms Bowl. Nebraska hasn't found any consistency on offense all year and takes on the Pac-12's top passing defense. The Cornhuskers have shown the ability to play well when trying to come from behind, which will likely be the case against the Bruins, but that's not a sustainable model for success. 

As for San Jose State, this is a team that gives up 33 points a game in losses. The Spartans are sort of a bend-don't-break defense in that they don't allow a ton of red zone trips. However, if teams do get into the red zone, they score touchdowns about two-thirds of the time. (In other words, get into the red zone and San Jose State does break.) Georgia State falls in line with that stat. The Panthers don't get into the red zone much, but do a decent job finishing when they do (63.64 touchdown percentage).

Georgia State is also a team on fire. It didn't play a difficult stretch toward the end of the season, but it did win its final four games, including one against Georgia Southern. This is definitely not the same team that lost to UNC-Charlotte in Week 1. 

Similarly, Central Michigan has been on a roll, winning five of its last six games. However, the Chips, too, have only beaten one team in that stretch with a winning record. It has one big win: against Northern Illinois. 

Additionally, CMU is 0-for vs. Power 5 teams, losing to all three of its Power 5 non-conference opponents, including Syracuse; however, the Chips gave Oklahoma State and Michigan State, who are a combined 22-3, everything they could handle for most of the respective games. 

In major statistical categories, Central Michigan and Minnesota are relatively even as you can see in the tables below:

	Yards Per Play	Rushing Yards Per Carry	Passing Yards Per Attempt	Explosive Plays (10+ yards)	Points Per Game
Central Michigan	5.80	3.09	8.1	192	26.8
Minnesota	5.33	4.21	6.5	140	22.6

	Yards Per Play Allowed	Rushing Yards Per Carry Allowed	Passing Yards Per Attempt Allowed	Explosive Plays (10+ yards) Allowed	Points Per Game Allowed
Central Michigan	5.10	3.99	6.4	136	22.1
Minnesota	4.95	4.16	6.0	145	26.1

Overall, Central Michigan is more explosive on offense, especially in the passing game. Conversely, what's held Minnesota back this year has been a lack of offense. But as Austin Ward of ESPN.com wrote, the Gophers have done better in the second half of the season letting the passing game rip: 

"

After failing to throw for more than 300 yards in any game during the first half of the season, quarterback Mitch Leidner helped produce three of them during the closing stretch, including a 317-yard outing in a near upset of Michigan that showed how dangerous the offense can be when the threat of the pass exists. 

"

If Minnesota can pick up where it left off in the aerial attack, it might yet go toe-to-toe with Central Michigan in a quarterback duel. Otherwise, this is a fairly even game on paper despite the line. That gives the Gophers reason for optimism that a sixth win is coming. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.