Orange Bowl 2015: Updated Odds and Comments for Clemson vs. Oklahoma
What a difference a year makes.
Last December Clemson and Oklahoma engaged in a postseason scrap—the unheralded Russell Athletic Bowl. The Tigers were No. 17, and the Sooners were unranked. Clemson dominated the contest, forcing five turnovers en route to an easy 40-6 victory.
This year both teams have new starting quarterbacks, fiercer defenses, better records and a whole heck of a lot more to play for.
In 2015, and it's No.1 Clemson (13-0, 8-0 ACC) taking on No. 4 Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1 Big 12) December 31 in the famous Orange Bowl—now at Sun Life Stadium—as one of two College Football Playoff semifinal games.
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A shot at a national championship is on the line for these two standout squads. Despite Clemson's undefeated record and top-ranked status, Oklahoma is holding as four-point favorites, according to Odds Shark. Points are expected in this one, as the over-under is at 66 points.
So what gives?
Why is Oklahoma getting the oddsmakers' love? Well, Baker Mayfield is obviously a huge part of that. He played better than just about any quarterback in the country down the stretch, save for perhaps Clemson's Deshaun Watson.
However, the players surrounding Mayfield also deserve plenty of credit. Big 12 Newcomer of the Year and wide receiver Dede Westbrook complimented offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley on getting players in place to succeed.
“Coach Riley knows what he’s doing,” he said, via ESPN.com's Brandon Chatmon. “It’s not about a player, it’s about a position. Whatever position you’re in, if that’s where the holes [in the defense] are [that week], be prepared and ready to go because you’re going to get the ball.”
Even guys like fullback/tight end Dimitri Flowers, whose biggest contributions don't necessarily show up in a box score, are getting their due by playing their part in Riley's schemes.
“He’s made an impact in a big way. His improvement has been crucial for us,” center Ty Darlington said, via Chatmon.
There's also Oklahoma's aggressive defense to consider. The Sooners ranked 31st in yards per game allowed, at a minute 4.68 yards per play, according to NCAA.com. Clemson co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott thinks the Sooners' defense is sharper than it was last year.
"They are doing a better job in their assignments,” Scott said, via Zach Lentz of the Times and Democrat. “You don't see the missed assignments that showed up last year. They are a lot more sound this year and where they are supposed to be, and that's making it more difficult to steal some more of those big plays.”
The pass rush is one of the most feared in the nation. Oklahoma has racked up 38 sacks this year, tied with Oklahoma State and—hey, wouldn't you know—Clemson. The ability to contain and/or disrupt Watson is going to be a key to this game. Scott feels the defensive line, in particular, has stepped up its intensity.
"I feel like their defensive line is playing harder,” Scott said, via Lentz. “They are doing a better job of using their hands, getting off blocks. I think they have slimmed down. The defensive fronts are a little bit quicker."
Clemson's own defense is, of course, a force to be reckoned with. While the sack and pressure numbers are impressive, Mayfield has been one of the better QBs in college football at making plays against the blitz, per ESPN.com's Jake Trotter:
"On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions when opposing defenses bring five or more pass rushers. That is the best rate among Power 5 quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Info. He’ll meet a Clemson defensive coordinator in Brent Venables who loves to blitz. The Tigers, in fact, bring five or more pass rushers on 37 percent of opponents’ dropbacks—the sixth-highest rate among Power 5 defenses. On such rushes, Clemson has held opponents to the third-lowest Total QBR (12.3) and second-lowest completion percentage (40.4 percent) of Power 5 defenses, according to ESPN Stats & Info. The Tigers are also third among Power 5 defenses on such plays with 20 sacks. Whether Mayfield can continue to burn the blitz figures to go a long way in determining the outcome of the Orange Bowl.
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Last year, the Tigers forced Trevor Knight into three interceptions in the Russell Athletic Bowl. That's unlikely to happen with Mayfield, who threw just five interceptions all season.
If anyone is going to snag an errant Mayfield throw, it might be cornerback Cordrea Tankersley, who leads the team with five interceptions this year. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney praised Tankersley, even suggesting he's as good as the team's other excellent corner, Mackensie Alexander, via the State's Matt Connolly:
"He’s been as consistent a player as we’ve had on that defense all year. He’s made a ton of plays, huge plays for us. He’s a physical guy and he’s very confident because of the experience and success that he’s had. He’s just as good as Mackensie. He’s a great player. There’s no question about it.
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It's going to be a war at Sun Life Stadium on December 31.
Both teams will need all hands on deck in this contest. The battle between the two star quarterbacks is the easy headline going into the game. Watson and Mayfield finished third and fourth, respectively, in Heisman voting this year, leading their teams to lofty heights.
However, it could be the less-heralded players on either team, like Tankersley, Westbrook or Flowers, who end up making a national championship-level difference.
Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, December 17 at 8 a.m. ET.
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