College Football Playoff 2015-16: Schedule, Odds and Projections for Final 4
There isn't a whole lot of difference between Christmas gifts under a tree and the College Football Playoff. We might have an idea of what we'll see, but the anticipation is the worst part.
With a full month between the last full weekend of major college football and the championship game, there's plenty of waiting to be done. Sure, there are other bowl games, but watching two teams battle it out to be the winner of the Ray-Ray's Auto Care Bowl isn't exactly the same as watching teams play for it all.
But the wait should be worth it.
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Once again, the playoff field is offering some intriguing matchups, and all four teams have a shot to hoist that trophy on January 11. Here's a look at the complete schedule, along with the latest odds for the semifinals from Odds Shark.
| Dec. 31 | 4 p.m. | ESPN | Orange Bowl | No.1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma | Oklahoma -3.5 | Clemson |
| Dec. 31 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State | Alabama -9.5 | Alabama |
| Jan. 11 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | National Championship | TBA | TBA | N/A |
Key Factors
Which Connor Cook Will Show Up Against Alabama?
The Michigan State Spartans' hopes of upending the Crimson Tide in the Cotton Bowl come down to the play of Connor Cook.
When Ole Miss beat Alabama this year, it was in part because Chad Kelly was able to make big plays in the passing game. That's been the case in just about every Alabama loss over the last five years.
Fortunately for the Spartans, they have a quarterback who is considered to be the most pro-ready quarterback in the nation, according to B/R's Matt Miller. The question is if he's up to the challenge.
If it's the Cook from early-to-mid season, then the answer might just be yes. Up until a shoulder injury at Maryland, he's lived up to the hype this season. After Maryland? Not so much.
| Before Maryland Game | 9 | 169/291 | 58% | 2,405 | 21 | 3 |
| After Maryland Game | 3 | 41/78 | 52% | 516 | 3 | 2 |
Those struggles can be traced to a shoulder injury the quarterback suffered during the game against the Terrapins.
However, Cook says the shoulder is improving, per Mike Griffith of MLive.com.
""I'm feeling a lot better, but obviously there were some shots I took in that (Big Ten title) game that hurt a little bit, but having three weeks is going to be crucial," Cook said. "(Alabama) is a very physical team. Their front seven is probably going to be the best front seven we'll play all year, (and) their DBs can come up and hit like linebackers."
"
As Cook mentioned, the Alabama defense will be the best Cook has seen all season. It's going to take more than just an individual performance to consistently find the end zone.
The Spartans running game isn't known for its effectiveness. It averages just 3.97 yards per carry as a team.
Alabama's defense only gives up 2.38 yards per carry.
That's a mismatch.
If Michigan State is to keep this game within its 9.5 points spread, it's going to come down to Cook. If he can consistently move the ball against the Tide defense, the Spartans have a shot.
Unfortunately for Sparty, Cook's game isn't really all that consistent. Even when Cook is at his best, he doesn't complete a high percentage of his passes—he's at just 52.4 percent against ranked opposition on the season.
With Michigan State's run game likely a non-factor, Cook will need to lead every scoring drive. He'll be able to do it a few times, but enough times to outscore the Tide will be a tall task.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Michigan State 17
Can Oklahoma Protect Baker Mayfield?
Oklahoma and Clemson are about as evenly matched as two football teams can be.
Both have developed notoriety on the offensive side of the ball but boast defenses that have set them apart from their opponents all season. As Sharon Katz of ESPN notes, no teams can claim the dominance that these two teams have shown both offensively and defensively this season:
When two teams are that evenly matched, any obvious strength versus an obvious weakness takes on an even bigger role. In this case, that just might be the Clemson defensive front taking on an Oklahoma offensive line that has struggled at times to protect its quarterback.
The Tigers are extremely efficient at getting to the quarterback. Led by Shaq Lawson with 9.5 sacks, the Tigers rank fifth nationally with 38 on the season.
The Sooners aren't that great at keeping their quarterback's jersey clean. They've allowed 36 sacks. That's 112th nationally.
That's—less than ideal.
Obviously, Oklahoma has found ways to be successful without great protection. And some of the blame for those numbers can certainly be traced back to Mayfield being a scrambling quarterback who finds trouble himself on some occasions.
However, it's important to note that Oklahoma gave up six sacks in its lone loss of the season to Texas. Against TCU—a game it almost lost in the final moments—it gave up another four.
That's two games in which the Sooners were put in a bad position because sacks were a detriment to the offense.
This game is going to be close. These two teams have been rated similarly by various metrics throughout the season. What could make the difference is a drive that gets stalled by an untimely sack.
That gives the Tigers a slight advantage in a game where few exist.
Prediction: Clemson 31, Oklahoma 27
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