SEC Football Q&A: Does Alabama QB Jake Coker Have to Step Up in Playoff?
The season is in the books, the playoff is set and coaching silly season is in full swing.
Despite no games being played in the SEC, this is one of the busiest times of the year.
Will Alabama's passing game improve with a month to prepare for the Cotton Bowl semifinal against Michigan State? Does it need to? Which teams are the early favorites to play for the SEC title in 2016?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Those questions and more are answered in this week's Bleacher Report SEC Q&A.
Not in the immediate future, because I believe there's a really good reason why Alabama is a 9.5-point favorite, according to OddsShark.com, over third-ranked Michigan State in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic national semifinal.
Michigan State isn't equipped to get Alabama out of its comfort zone.
The Spartans, like the Crimson Tide, want to play in a phone booth, win the battle at the line of scrimmage and work the passing game off of play action. Quarterback Connor Cook, while a fantastic player, isn't suddenly going to become a force with his legs, and the Spartans don't put stress on defenses with tempo.
Those are the the things that get Alabama in trouble. Every team that has toppled the Tide since 2007—Nick Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa—either had a mobile quarterback who was a threat with his legs or used tempo to make the Tide defense as vanilla as possible.
What Michigan State will do is use different formations to try to create mismatches and confuse the Tide defense, which is exactly what offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin does every day in practice.
As a result, quarterback Jake Coker will be able to do exactly what he's done over the last two months. He'll let running back Derrick Henry do his work, take shots deep when appropriate and distribute the ball to his playmakers—often on the run, when he's at his best through the air.
There's a legitimate concern whether Coker can get into and win a shootout, because he hasn't been forced into that situation save for the hole he nearly dug the Tide out of against Ole Miss in early September. Michigan State doesn't have the shovels to dig that hole from an offensive standpoint, which should allow Coker to keep going about his business as usual.
If Alabama wins and faces either Oklahoma or Clemson in the College Football Playoff National Championship, then yes, he might have to step up.
The Sooners and Tigers are both in the top 12 nationally in total offense, both use tempo and both have mobile quarterbacks in Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson, respectively. In a hypothetical title game matchup, Alabama will still try to force its style of football on either opponent. But that will be much more difficult than it will be versus Michigan State, and could become the time for Coker to turn into a difference-maker.
"Who are your predictions for division winners heading into next season and why? https://t.co/dqgSPDCzMj
— Charles Post (@HornsTXSports) December 14, 2015"
In the SEC West, it's going to be Alabama.
While there will be a new quarterback and likely a new running back in Tuscaloosa, the level of talent Saban as amassed over the last few years makes this essentially plug-and-play in terms of staying in contention.
Whether it's David Cornwell, Blake Barnett or somebody else taking over for Coker under center, Kiffin has proved that he has what it takes to figure it out—sometimes on the fly—over the last two seasons. At running back, Bo Scarbrough should be healthy, and Damien Harris will have a full season under his belt after backing up Henry as a true freshman.
There are weapons outside for the eventual winner of the quarterback battle, the front seven is loaded with depth and youngsters like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey have played well in the secondary this year.
In the SEC East—I'll go ahead and jump on the bandwagon now—it's going to be Tennessee.
Don't fall into the trap of saying "we did this last year with Tennessee." This is a new year, and it's really hard to find a reason to pick anybody else in the division.
Defending champion Florida will be without quarterback Will Grier for six games next year (including its game versus Tennessee in Knoxville, which decided the division in 2015). They lose stud defenders Jonathan Bullard, linebacker Antonio Morrison and corner Vernon Hargreaves III.
Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina are all going through coaching changes, and all have major quarterback issues to answer. Kentucky isn't much of a threat, and Vanderbilt, while solid defensively, is still a mess on offense.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will have quarterback Joshua Dobbs back after the coaching staff developed confidence in him through the air during the back half of the season, two more big running threats in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, an offensive line with experience, another season of a deep and talented receiving corps and a defense led by defensive end Derek Barnett and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin that led the conference on third down.
The expectation should be the SEC East title, with anything short of that being a disappointment.
Had it not been for Florida wide receiver Antonio Callaway's 63-yard touchdown on 4th-and-14 with under two minutes to go in Tennessee's loss to the Gators in late September, the Vols would have had another shot at Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in 2015.
Even if the program takes a small step forward in 2016, that small step should include an SEC East title in a division that is even more littered with question marks than it was last offseason.
Head coach Butch Jones just got a $500,000 raise for his success in Year 3, but still is only paid like a mid-tier SEC head coach. He has built the program back to a competitive level, and that trajectory should land the Vols in Atlanta following the 2016 season provided there are no major injuries or unexpected departures.
It's OK to say it. The Vols should be SEC East champs next season.
For real, this time.
Now?
If now isn't realistic, September 2016?
There's no shortage of talent on the Plains, and if Auburn doesn't contend for the SEC West title in 2016, something is seriously wrong with the program.
Head coach Gus Malzahn has produced dynamic offenses every year of his college career up until the 2015 campaign, which saw the Tigers go through massive quarterback and play-calling issues.
Those two things have to change immediately, starting with the play-calling in the bowl game and continuing in the offseason by either developing quarterback Jeremy Johnson or Sean White into the weapons they were touted to be, or finding a mobile quarterback to add a different dimension to the Tiger offense.
On the defensive side, the Tigers were actually solid down the stretch. Another year of Carl Lawson, combined with a defensive line that should feature tackle Montravius Adams and Byron Cowart, should help the Tigers take the next step regardless of who the new defensive coordinator is.
Auburn needs to contend for the division title next season, otherwise it could get sketchy for Malzahn down the stretch.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee
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