Which QBs Can Take Back the Heisman Race in 2016?
2015 was the Year of the Running Back in college football, so it shouldn't have been a surprise when Alabama's Derrick Henry won the 81st Heisman Trophy over another running back, Christian McCaffrey from Stanford.
But the Heisman has been a quarterback award in recent years. Before Henry's win Saturday, 13 of the last 14 winners had been quarterbacks. The exception was former Alabama running back Mark Ingram in 2009 (and USC's Reggie Bush in 2005, if you still count it).
Can the quarterback take back the award in 2016? There's far more star power returning to the position next season, so the odds seem far better than they ever were this year. In the following slides are quarterbacks with starting experience who are almost guaranteed to come back in '16 (i.e., they're not at the top of draft boards or aren't eligible).
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson
1 of 10
Deshaun Watson is the most obvious choice if for no other reason than he was a Heisman finalist this year. Going into his junior season, he should be among the early odds leaders to win the award.
Watson didn't put up the gaudiest numbers this year—though 338.4 total yards per game and 41 touchdowns is nothing to scoff at—but no other quarterback looks more in control of an offense than him. He can hurt defenses with his arm and his legs. He has the arm and accuracy to beat defenses down the field, but opponents have to respect his running ability as well. His improvisation skills are a bit more subtle than, say, Baker Mayfield's, but he can extend plays all the same.
Watson, a first-team Associated Press All-American selection, will have most of his offense returning next year, including his top two wide receivers, Artavis Scott and Deon Cain. Chemistry shouldn't be a problem, at the very least.
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
2 of 10
Heisman snubs aren't always what you think they are since there are only three spots on a voter's ballot; basically, there are only so many spots for recognition. That said, Oklahoma cornerback Zack Sanchez wasn't alone when he commented that Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield was snubbed from a trip to New York.
Sure enough, Mayfield finished fourth in the overall voting, though by an obviously large margin.
Mayfield is one of college football's best stories. He started his career at Texas Tech as a walk-on, transferred to Oklahoma when it looked like the Sooners weren't in need of a quarterback and has completely taken over this team. His playing style resembles former Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel in that he basically plays all-time quarterback in backyard football.
But don't worry, Oklahoma fans. The #Baker4Heisman 2016 campaign is already underway.
Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.
3 of 10
Every so often, a prolific quarterback from outside the Power Five sneaks his way into the Heisman finalist voting (see: Jordan Lynch and Colt Brennan). Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. can be that guy in 2016.
Ward was an All-American Athletic Conference second-team selection behind Memphis' Paxton Lynch and Navy's Keenan Reynolds, which is no slight toward Ward. However, Reynolds is a senior and Lynch is listed as Matt Miller's second-best quarterback in the 2016 draft class, so it's possible Lynch isn't back next year.
That would make Ward the unquestioned best quarterback in the AAC, which had a banner year as a Group of Five conference that played like a Power Five conference at the top. Since Ward has some name recognition now and Houston is surging under head coach Tom Herman, another 11- or 12-win season could be the boost Ward needs to get to New York.
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Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett
4 of 10
It's impossible to consider an 11-1 season as a "down" year for Ohio State, but mercy did it feel like it. The Buckeyes didn't return to the playoffs, and didn't even win their own division thanks to their worst offensive performance of the year against Michigan State.
That, in a nutshell, is what you need to know about Ohio State's struggles. The quarterback competition between J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones wasn't solved until later in the year, and the offense's most dominating performance, against Michigan, came one week too late.
But at least we know what this offense is still capable of doing. Going into 2016, Barrett has the opportunity to bounce back and have a year more aligned to the one he had in 2014, when he was named the Big Ten's Griese-Brees Quarterback of the Year.
The question is how does Ohio State replace several key members of the offense? Most of the offensive line and running back Ezekiel Elliott are either seniors or off to the NFL draft. That's a lot of star power lost, but Ohio State has also shown the ability to reload year after year under head coach Urban Meyer without a significant drop-off. If it can reload successfully next season, Barrett's Heisman hopes should be high.
Washington State Quarterback Luke Falk
5 of 10
If the Heisman is driven by stats, then someone's going to have a heck of a time trying to explain why Washington State quarterback Luke Falk shouldn't be in the conversation.
All Falk did as a sophomore starter for the Cougars was lead the nation in passing (387.8 yards per game) and throw for 36 touchdowns to eight interceptions. Also keep in mind he missed a game due to a concussion.
There are ultimately two things that hurt Falk's Heisman stock, however. For one, he plays in the Pac-12, which means he often plays late at night when people aren't watching. Oregon's Marcus Mariota had two years of name recognition built up by the time he won the Heisman. Secondly, Washington State will need to win more than eight games for Falk to be a legitimate candidate. It's unfortunate, but that's the way it is.
Still, Wazzu surprised a lot of people this year, and head coach Mike Leach might finally have the program trending in the right direction for good. If nothing else, more people should know Falk's name in 2016.
UCLA QB Josh Rosen
6 of 10
Josh Rosen's true freshman campaign for UCLA has to be considered an overall success. Rosen finished fourth in the Pac-12 with 3,350 yards passing, 20 touchdowns and nine picks. He had his great moments and moments in which he looked like a true freshman. But that's part of the learning process for him.
For Rosen to be a Heisman candidate in 2016, he needs to improve his consistency from game to game. (And from series to series within games.) That's a natural step in his progression. One game he'd throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns. The next he'd throw a couple of picks and complete 50 percent of his passes.
The good news for Rosen is most of the offense around him should be returning, including a majority of his starting O-line. The Bruins already finished atop the Pac-12 with the fewest sacks allowed (14). With time to throw and a better understanding of the speed of the game, Rosen should flourish as a sophomore.
All you need to know about Rosen is what Washington coach Chris Petersen told Nebraska coach Mike Riley, per Jack Wang of the Los Angeles Daily News, ahead of the Huskers' Foster Farms Bowl appearance against the Bruins: “This guy is for real.”
Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs
7 of 10
2015 didn't end up as the breakout season for Tennessee that some thought it would be, but the Vols weren't that far away from winning every single one of their games. Ideally, you'd like to see the coaching staff put more faith into quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who has the capability to take over games by himself.
The good news for Dobbs and the Vols is that this offense is generally young. As a group, 2015 was about building chemistry and trust. The '16 edition of the Vols should be better for it. There's no shortage of talent, so there's no reason why Tennessee can't have an explosive offense in a winnable division.
Dobbs' ability to run and throw makes him the quintessential Heisman candidate. His "do it yourself" attitude has game-changer written all over it. If Tennessee wins a few more games and the coaching staff lets Dobbs loose, his Heisman chances will be as good as anyone's.
Baylor QB Seth Russell
8 of 10
Baylor's playoff hopes tanked in November, but not without cause. No other team in college football had more injuries to the quarterback spot (and as quickly) as the Bears. It all started when Seth Russell sustained a neck fracture against Iowa State, knocking him out for the final six games of the year. Before that injury, Russell accounted for 35 touchdowns—just a notch under six per game.
Though freshman Jarrett Stidham did a decent job filling in for Russell (until sustaining his own injuries), the offense clearly runs smoother with Russell on the field. He's a prolific passer, but also the fastest runner at quarterback Baylor has had since Robert Griffin III.
Back as a senior in '16, Russell should be able to pick up where he left off and rejoin the Heisman conversation. Staying healthy, not putting up video game stats, should be his biggest question mark.
Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly
9 of 10
Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott may have been the SEC's best quarterback according to B/R colleague Barrett Sallee, but Ole Miss' Chad Kelly was actually better numbers-wise.
With Prescott gone in 2016, though, Kelly and Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs should have early dibs for the title of the SEC's top quarterback. The challenge for Kelly will be thriving in an offense featuring new faces. As Daniel Paulling of the Clarion-Ledger notes, "How the roster is shaped next season could greatly impact Kelly’s chances.
"Four of the 10 offensive starters besides Kelly in the Mississippi State game are leaving because of graduation," Paulling writes. "Two more, left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, likely won’t come back in favor of entering the NFL draft early."
That's a lot to replace, and Ole Miss will have to win big again if Kelly's going to have a shot at the Heisman.
Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes II
10 of 10
If we're going to include Luke Falk in the way-too-early Heisman discussion (i.e., a quarterback that's going to put up ridiculous stats), then it's only fair to include Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes II.
In many ways, Mahomes is a lot like Falk. He's going to put up absurd numbers, but his team might not be in the running for a playoff spot or New Year's Six bowl appearance. That can be an uphill battle to climb, but keep in mind no Big 12 quarterback had more total yards per game this year than Mahomes (397.3).
Granted, TCU's Trevone Boykin and Baylor's Seth Russell were injured, leading the way for Mahomes to take control of the title of most prolific quarterback in the Big 12. However, with Boykin moving on to the next level, Mahomes should battle Russell for the Big 12's top signal-caller in 2016.
Now, if Texas Tech's defense can make a stop...
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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