Which Conference Will Dominate College Football Bowl Season?
Most people will look at bowl season and its results as a measuring stick for conference vs. conference supremacy (looking at you, Big Ten and SEC). In more realistic terms, though, bowl games say less about the overall strength or weakness of a conference and more about matchups (i.e. selection order) and motivation.
Still, it's always a calling card for conferences to do well in the postseason. The win-loss record might be meaningless in the big picture, but the comparisons exist all the same.
So if we're predicting which conference will dominate this bowl season, the most straightforward way to judge is based on the matchups. And no one has a more advantageous set of games on paper than the Pac-12.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Of the Power Five conferences, only the Pac-12 opened as a favorite or even in every bowl game according to OddsShark. Every other conference opened as an underdog in at least one game.
Of course, opening lines can change—many already have—and it goes without saying (but we'll say it anyway) that Vegas favorites aren't guaranteed to win. But from top to bottom, the Pac-12 has a more manageable slate than anyone. Below is a table of each Pac-12 bowl game, the opponent and most recent line per OddsShark (or opening line if it hasn't been updated):
| Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 19) | Arizona | New Mexico | Arizona (-11.5) |
| Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 19) | Utah | BYU | Utah (-3) |
| Hyundai Sun Bowl (Dec. 26) | Washington State | Miami | Washington State (-1.5) |
| Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl (Dec. 26) | Washington | Southern Miss | Washington (-8.5) |
| Foster Farms Bowl (Dec. 26) | UCLA | Nebraska | UCLA (-6.5) |
| Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 29) | California | Air Force | Cal (-6.5) |
| Holiday Bowl (Dec. 30) | USC | Wisconsin | USC (-3) |
| Rose Bowl Game (Jan. 1) | Stanford | Iowa | Stanford (-6.5) |
| Valero Alamo Bowl (Jan. 2) | Oregon | TCU | Even |
| Motel 6 Cactus Bowl (Jan. 2) | Arizona State | West Virginia | Arizona State (-1.5) |
Now compare this to the ACC, which opened as an underdog in seven games. The Big Ten is next with six underdogs, and the Big 12 opened as an underdog in four games. Only the SEC comes close to the Pac-12 with one underdog: Florida (+4) against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
However, the top of the SEC bowl schedule is far more difficult. In addition to Alabama getting Michigan State in the College Football Playoff semifinal, the SEC has to play three top-16 teams plus Memphis. It's just an overall harder slate.
Again, this doesn't mean the Pac-12 is the best conference, in perception or reality. In fact, perhaps no other conference had a worse start to the 2015-16 season. It just means the Pac-12 is in a position to win a majority of its bowls, at least as far as Vegas is concerned.
Now that the games have been set and the lines established, here's what awaits each Pac-12 team in their bowl game (and why they can win):
New Mexico Bowl
It's interesting to see Arizona as a double-digit favorite. Only Oregon State has allowed more rushing touchdowns in the Pac-12, and all New Mexico does is run the ball. However, the Wildcats have been banged up this year and could finally hit their stride with a healthy squad.
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah fans are m-a-d mad about falling down the Pac-12 bowl pecking order and playing rival BYU. The Utes haven't been the same since running back Devontae Booker sustained a season-ending knee injury, either.
But what would be better for Utah than to have the final say (at least until next season) in the latest edition of the Holy War? Also, Utah can send BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall, who is leaving to take the same job at Virginia, out with a loss.
Sun Bowl
Luke Falk should be back for the Cougars, and Falk is maybe the best quarterback in college football who no one talks about. Miami's pass defense is good, but the Hurricanes haven't faced a team that throws as much as Wazzu.
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Head coach Todd Monken has done a terrific job at Southern Miss, but Washington's defense is stingy. Plus, the Huskies offense thrived late in the season and freshman quarterback Jake Browning played more consistently down the stretch. The question here is whether Washington is motivated for this game.
Foster Farms Bowl
Nebraska is 5-7 and wouldn't be in a bowl to begin with if there weren't so many of them. The Huskers offense has been underwhelming, too. This is UCLA's game to lose.
Armed Forces Bowl
It's fair to wonder about Cal's mentality. Even though head coach Sonny Dykes recently agreed to a two-year extension, his days in the Bay Area seem limited. Still, the Golden Bears have a potent offense, and this is the best defense Dykes has had at Cal.
Holiday Bowl
It's a bit surprising to see USC as such narrow favorites on paper. The Trojans are clearly the more talented team skill-wise, but Wisconsin's defense is excellent. If USC can get off to a fast start, it's going to put pressure on a Wisconsin team that's not built for shootouts.
Rose Bowl
Iowa's defense played lights out against Michigan State in the Big Ten championship—for about 51 minutes. Stanford has the most dynamic player in college football in Christian McCaffrey. The guy makes too many plays in too many different ways.
Alamo Bowl
Be prepared for fun and points. TCU will have quarterback Trevone Boykin, but the status of leading receiver Josh Doctson (wrist) is to be determined. Oregon's pass defense is terrible, but there were few more efficient passers this season than Ducks quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. His ability to run and throw at a high level makes him almost impossible to stop.
“Oregon is playing at a very high level,” TCU head coach Gary Patterson said, via Carlos Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
Cactus Bowl
The last bowl game before the national championship could be sneaky good. Arizona State quarterback Mike Bercovici vs. the Mountaineers defense is a great matchup. However, nobody shoots themselves in the foot like West Virginia.
Predicting bowl winners is a toss-up, but this sets up well for the Pac-12. The conference gets bowl games against a sub-.500 team, three non-Power Five teams and a hated rival. Additionally, some banged up teams are getting healthy players back at the right time.
If nothing else, there's plenty of entertainment value with the Pac-12's bowl slate. Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports listed the Rose Bowl as one of the games he's most excited to watch. Mandel also pointed to the Alamo Bowl as one you shouldn't miss and named the Las Vegas Bowl the "under-the-radar gem."
So be sure to keep an eye on Pac-12 bowl games over the next several weeks. When the bowl dust settles, this is the conference that could surprise in a good way.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
