Heisman Race 2015: Predictions, Stats and Highlights for Top Contenders
Three of college football's top players will be on hand in New York City on Saturday for the annual Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony: Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, Alabama running back Derrick Henry and Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey.
It's a small, elite group culled from a year lacking a clear front-runner to start the season—though LSU's Leonard Fournette took up that mantle quickly before fading from the conversation—or a player generating wire-to-wire buzz in the way that Oregon's Marcus Mariota did in 2014.
All three players are deserving in their own way, and any one of them could walk away with the famous trophy without it being a controversy. Still, only one can win.
Bleacher Report made a quick hype tape for the Heisman hopefuls:
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In a final preview before the award is announced, here are some stats, highlights and predictions for each player in contention.
No. 3: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
| Stat | 69.5 | 3,512 | 8.5 | 30 | 11 | 159.6 | 887 | 11 |
| NCAA Rank | 3rd | 16th | 25th | 9th | - | 12th | 3rd* (72nd overall) | 8th* (T-41st overall) |
He's the top player on the undefeated No. 1 team in the country at the most important position on the field. What's not to like? Watson's 2015 campaign has been an impressive display of what a dual-threat quarterback with an accurate arm can do for a team.
At first, Clemson kept Watson in the pocket, as he had little trouble picking defenses apart with his rifle of an arm. Eventually, the sophomore stud got more of a license to carry the football, and as the rushing yards increased, so did his passing yards.
Watson topped the 300-yard passing mark four times this season, including a 420-yard effort against Boston College in mid-October. He scored a rushing touchdown in eight games this year. In his last two games, he combined for five rushing touchdowns, getting Clemson much-needed points in close games against both South Carolina and North Carolina.
His best overall performance from a numbers standpoint was against North Carolina State, in which he threw for 383 yards and five touchdowns while picking up 54 yards and another score on the ground.
Watson, who tore his ACL as a freshman, points to his confidence and self-belief as reasons for his accomplishments and improvements.
“I’m doing better things than I did my freshman year before I was hurt,” he said, via USA Today's George Schroeder. “I never doubted myself or let negative thoughts in my mind. I think I can do anything. That’s the type of person I am. I’m very confident. I know my skill set and what I can do.”
His athleticism at the position is remarkable, as evidenced by this 30-yard dash to the pylon against the Gamecocks, per ESPN CFB:
Watson would make a fine winner in any other year, but two stellar, record-breaking campaigns from a pair of running backs are going to slightly overtake him in the Heisman voting.
Watson's stats are undeniably impressive but not the kind of far-out, jaw-dropping numbers put up by the likes of Mariota and some other Heisman-winning quarterbacks of years past. Still, you could do a lot worse than voting for the best player on the best team (so far).
No. 2: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Stanford's do-everything sophomore was the focal point of a team that finished No. 6 in the country. McCaffrey's second in the nation in rushing yards, which alone would garner most players attention for college football's top individual honor.
But McCaffrey is much more than a runner. He's also a dynamite presence in the passing game and returns kicks to boot. Check him out returning a kick 98 yards to paydirt against Cal:
| Stat | 319 | 1,847 | 5.8 | 8 | 540 | 4 | 1,042 | 28.9 | 67 | 1 |
| NCAA Rank | 2nd | 2nd | 28th (among players w/ 150+ carries | T-80th | 2nd* (200th overall) | T-6th* (T-168th overall) | 2nd | 6th | --- | --- |
McCaffrey also saved his best performance for last, racking up 461 all-purpose yards while running, receiving and passing for touchdowns in Stanford's win over USC in the Pac-12 title game. Check out his highlights from that contest, per Stanford Football:
As a result of his myriad talents, McCaffrey now holds the single-season record for all-purpose yards, with 3,496. The man who previously held that record? Barry Sanders. Per Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman, McCaffrey even won an award that cemented him as college football's most versatile athlete:
Some will point to McCaffrey's relative lack of touchdowns—13 total on the year—and the fact that Stanford faced several unimpressive defenses this season as reasons he should not win the award. Of the 12 teams Stanford played this year, only three finished in the top 50 in total defense (Northwestern, Notre Dame and Washington).
These arguments may very well do him in, but they won't convince everyone. Sports on Earth's Matt Brown made the case for the tailback on his ability to elevate his team:
"Nobody, however, is a game-changer in more ways than McCaffrey. He's a great running back. He's a great receiver. He's a great return man. He has injected life into what was a stagnant Stanford offense last year, pushing the Cardinal back to new heights after their early slip-up against Northwestern. He's been mentioned in sentences with Barry Sanders and Reggie Bush, emerging as one of the all-time great all-purpose players, someone capable of changing the game at any moment, regardless of how he gets the ball.
All three finalists have legitimately strong cases. But if I had a Heisman Trophy vote, I would give it to Christian McCaffrey.
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This race should be a close one, as all three candidates are wholly deserving. However, I believe McCaffrey will fall just short of picking up the trophy.
No. 1: Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
According to Odds Shark, Henry is the man to beat for the award as a minus-500 favorite. ESPN's David Hale thinks Henry will win, even though he bestowed superlatives often associated with the Heisman on other players:
| Stat | 339 | 1,986 | 5.9 | 23 | 10 | 97 |
| NCAA Rank | 1st | 1st | 24th (among players w/ 150+ carries) | 1st | --- | --- |
Henry is already racking up the trophies and accolades, and it appears he might pick up another on Saturday. On Thursday, he picked up the Maxwell and Doak Walker awards, given to the nation's top player of the year and running back of the year, respectively. According to SportsCenter, Henry is the first running back to win the Maxwell Award since Penn State's Larry Johnson in 2002.
Even after he took in the awards, the junior running back remained focused on the task at hand, delivering a championship to No. 2 Alabama.
"That taste from last year is still in my mouth," Henry said, per ESPN.com's news services. "That one really bothered us."
If Alabama is going to win a national title, it will likely be through Henry, as his Heisman credentials rest on his ability to drive his team's one-dimensional offense forward, even against top competition that knows exactly what's coming. ESPN.com's Alex Scarborough summed up his importance to the team:
"You want a "Most Valuable Player"? He's that, too. He represents more than 36 percent of Alabama's total yards and 42 percent of its total touchdowns. Take him away, and Alabama is a three- or four-loss team. The offense is predicated off of him running the football so quarterback Jake Coker can work play-action and throw the ball deep. And with Kenyan Drake injured for much of the season and the third- and fourth-string backs being true freshmen, it really is all on Henry's shoulders, unlike in years past when Trent Richardson was Mark Ingram's sidekick and T.J. Yeldon was Eddie Lacy's backup.
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The bruising Alabama back topped the 200-yard mark four times this season, each time against SEC opposition. Three times he scored three rushing touchdowns in a game. Alabama played seven teams ranked in the top 50 in rushing yards allowed per game, four of them in top 25.
If you're not fully acquainted with his speed and power, take a look at Henry rolling to a 74-yard touchdown against Mississippi State, via CBS Sports:
Henry led the nation in rushing yards and broke Herschel Walker's SEC record for rushing yards in a single season, despite coach Nick Saban giving him just nine carries in a late-season walkover game against Charleston Southern (two of those nine carries went for touchdowns in any case).
Saban was wise to rest his star back, as he would rely on Henry heavily to close out the regular season. Facing Auburn in the Iron Bowl on November 28, Henry carried the ball 46 times for 271 yards and one touchdown. The next week, against Florida's then-top-10 rushing defense in the SEC championship game, Henry steamrolled his way to 189 yards and one score on a staggering 44 carries.
Consider the fact that quarterback Jake Stoker threw the ball just 52 times for 383 yards in those two games. Passing the ball was practically an afterthought with Henry chewing up the gridiron. At times, Henry was simply inevitable.
Henry isn't as versatile as either McCaffrey or Watson, which could be a sticking point for some voters. He certainly isn't the flashiest elite back playing this year. One could point to McCaffrey, Fournette, Oregon's Royce Freeman or Florida State's Dalvin Cook (who really, really deserved an invite).
He was simply everything to the Alabama offense, the offense of the No. 2 team in the country and a potential national champion. It's a tough argument to beat, one that might win just over enough Heisman voters on Saturday.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
