NBA Players Who Have Exceeded Expectations so Far

A quarter through the NBA season, some players have gone beyond what we expected.

Simply put: Kristaps Porzingis.

While the Porzingod makes the list as a shoe-in, there are other players who have exceeded expectations, regardless of how small they may be.

The rules are simple for this list so let's get them out of the way.

First, expectations are relative. Expectations around the league aren't as clearly defined as they were with Porzingis. Not every player on this list exceeds expectations so much as improved aspects of their games. That includes Paul George, too. (The NBA is just a better place with him in it.)

Second, it's not limited to performance. Wesley Matthews makes the list because he's playing less than a year removed from an Achilles injury, a tear that has ended careers and severely hindered others. 

Having said that, third, performance does count. If there's a big boost in career numbers, say Brandon Knight, or if a player is completely dominating an aspect of the game, say Andre Drummond, then they'll make the list. Think of "exceeding expectations" simply as improving upon one's game.

Fourth, the list is not ranked. These players are on the board strictly from when they popped in my head. That is except for Godzingis, who's No. 1. 

Stephen Curry

You may be suffering from Curry fatigue from the way he has dominated headlines and the basketball world since the season started, so I'll keep this short.

Curry just casually scores 28 points in the quarter immediately after his father is honored by the Charlotte Hornets. That's cold blooded. 

Curry makes the list because he's leading the league in scoring with 32.2 points per game, a full 8.2 points better than his career high and 8.4 points better than last year when he won the MVP award.

For players that won scoring titles, Curry's average isn't near the highest ever, but he's only playing 32.2 minutes per game. Curry is averaging one point per minute played. 

Adjusting for per-36-minute averages via basketball-reference.com, only two players averaged over 33 points per game, Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

As for his current PER of 34.82, no player has cracked 32 for an entire season.

Couple in the facts he's shooting 53 percent from the field, 46 percent from three (on 11 attempts per game) and 90 percent from the line and you have an all-time great season unfolding. He's also fourth in the league in steals with 2.3 per game.

Right now, it's a matter of whether you believe he can keep up this production over 82 games. You may be correct, but I'm not willing to bet against Curry.

And the Warriors are 23-0.

Philadelphia 76ers

As a lifelong 76ers fan (and resident of the Philadelphia area), I understand the process of tanking, why it was done and the intended goals.

But, a quarter of the way through Year 3 and 21 out of 22 losses later, things have gotten so much worse than anticipated.

The 2014 No. 3 overall pick, Joel Embiid, drinks Shirley Temples by the pitcher. He re-broke his foot and was lost for another season due to surgery. Dario Saric—though his father said he will definitely join the Sixers next season—is still overseas.

Rookie and No. 3 overall pick, Jahlil Okafor, has been caught speeding on the Ben Franklin Bridge, had a gun put to his head and has knocked a guy out in Boston. (He’s a 19-year-old who just became a millionaire overnight. No criticisms here. He made mistakes. It’s part of growing up.)

Outside of Okafor and Nerlens Noel—whose offensive game is still developing—the Sixers have a stash of picks, but no assets. They have no other viable NBA players on their roster.

General manager Sam Hinkie has made all the right moves when it comes to trades, but no one could have expected Year 3 of the tank to be this bad (Granted, luck is a part of the deal). They make the list because somehow the dumpster fire has become a super dumpster fire. All intended, but the flames have gotten more out of control than expected.

It’s been so bad other owners around the league lobbied to have the NBA step in and make changes, which sparked Sixers owner to hire Jerry Colangelo, per Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com.

In a league where stars are encouraged to stay with their current teams instead of testing free agency, tanking and drafting good-to-great players is the best way to ensure stardom gets to your team. But, it was risky and Year 3 is by far the worst year of the tanking session.

Maybe it’s the last time the process hits the bottom.

Deron Williams

It's hard to believe that at one point, there was an actual debate between Williams and Chris Paul regarding who was the best point guard in the NBA.

That debate has since been settled and while one half (Paul) seems to continually elevate his game, Williams has been on the decline, culminating in a forgettable (or unforgettable depending on your allegiances) three-year period after the Nets moved to Brooklyn.

This season, however, Williams looks a bit revitalized, averaging the most points per game in three years. He's scoring 15 points per game and dishing out six assists. He's shooting 38 percent from three and his PER of 17.19 is closer to the Deron Williams in Utah, where the Paul-Williams debate started.

He'll never get back to the 10 assists per game he averaged over a stretch of seasons with the Jazz, but he's playing his best basketball in recent memory.

Credit Williams for fighting back and Rick Carlisle for being an awesome coach.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Caldwell-Pope isn't on the list for his blazing numbers, but his effect on the game defensively.

In the video, Caldwell-Pope guards Curry throughout the game. Though the Warriors won, Curry had his worst game of the season in terms of efficiency, shooting less than 40 percent and scoring only (quote unquote) 22 points.

According to Box Score Geek, Caldwell-Pope adds .143 wins produced per 48 minutes, up from .45 last season, per Steve Hinson of detroitbadboys.com.

I know it's only one game, but Caldwell-Pope's perimeter defense is getting praise across the league. Caldwell-Pope is nowhere near the elite defender Kawhi Leonard is, but he's holding his own.

Caldwell-Pope's averages are up throughout his stat line, slightly, even though his three-point-average has dropped below 30 percent. If Caldwell-Pope's career is any indicator, it's that he can shoot threes close to 35 percent.

The glaring issue is Caldwell-Pope's efficiency offensively, but if he can get back to his three-point averages for his career, then he'll be a solid player in the league.

C.J. Miles

The expectations for C.J. Miles were never that high, but he's flying under the radar.

His ability to play the 4 not only helps the Pacers in their small-ball lineups, but it allows Paul George—the superstar of the Pacers—to play minutes at his preferred position of small forward.

The move has worked well for the Pacers as George is completing his ascension back into superstardom and Miles has become a great stretch 4.

Miles is shooting a career-best 44 percent from three and averaging a career-high 16.1 points per game.

Miles's shooting from the outside is perfect for George because a couple of shots on the perimeter opens up the paint for George to attack.

Miles will never get to the level of George, but he's playing better than he has during his entire career.

Tobias Harris

Tobias Harris is the one player who makes the list, not strictly because of an increase in offensive production.

Truth be told, Harris is down in points per game, three-point percentage and field-goal percentage.

But, where he has improved is defensively. Using fancy NBA.com metrics, Harris’ defense has improved throughout.

Last season, types of players guarded by Harris (think the forward position) averaged 60 percent from the field around the basket, but averaged close to 65 percent when guarded by Harris.

This season, those same players average 61 percent around the basket, but now shoot 54 percent when guarded by Harris.

Less drastically, in 2014-15, Harris-guarded players shot 48.6 percent on two-point field goals on 7.6 attempts. This season, the average is down to 47.7 percent on 7.0 attempts per game. (It’s not as drastic as around the basket, but considering in 2013-14, players were shooting over 50 percent on Harris means he’s improving.)

And this is all without the benefit of his offensive game. If Harris can get back to his efficient scoring like last year, he’ll be an even more reliable player.

Wesley Matthews

Matthews isn't on this list so much for his stats as he is his toughness. 

His numbers are down across the board, and last week Matthews simply said "I suck right now," via Tim McMahon of ESPN.com.

If the above video of a game that happened a day or so after his comments shows anything, it's Matthews doesn't suck. Only a handful of players have ever hit 10 three-pointers in a game.

What's unfortunate is he tore his Achilles back in March.

Matthews makes the list because of his toughness. In less than a year, he came back from an injury that devastates players and has even ended careers. And Matthews just turned 29 years old.

So don't be so hard on yourself, Wes. You're coming back from a major injury.

Nicolas Batum

Batum is on the Matthews-scale (though toward the lower end) when it comes to expectations.

Batum has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, except during the 2013-14 season, when he played all 82 for the Portland Trail Blazers. It's the only time he's played a full season.

The season is young and there’s a ton of time left, but Batum has played—and started—in all 21 games for the Charlotte Hornets this season.

He’s well above his career averages in points, rebounds and assists, averaging a career-high 16.6 (11.4 career), 6.8 (5.1) and 5 (3.1), respectively.

His above-the-midline averages this season make him a triple-double possibility each night, like his 10 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists game against the Miami Heat—as shown in the video.

Basically, it seems when Batum can stay healthy, he’ll be productive.

Derrick Favors

Favors has been trending up the past couple of seasons in terms of production.

But, what can get lost is that Favors is also trending up in efficiency, too.

Through 19 games, Favors is averaging a career-high 17.4 points per game while shooting a career-high 55 percent from the field. His 8.9 assists per game are a career high, as is his 70 percent shooting from the free-throw line. Favors is even averaging 1.7 steals per game.

This season seems to be his biggest jump in improvement, as he already has scored a career-high 35 points against the Indiana Pacers.

While his game started to mold, his issue has been injuries (like so many others on this list), but if he can stay healthy, it seems Favors is really coming into his own.

Hassan Whiteside

When Hassan Whiteside stormed into the NBA last season, his talent was questioned, and he answered strongly.

However, the new question became his ability to keep up this level of production, especially as a rim protector and shot-blocker.

To top last year, he's only nearly averaged double the number of blocks and has entered the top five of players in the NBA who have the best chance to record a quadruple double. (I have him at No. 1 because 10 blocks happens more often that 10 steals. Is Russell Westbrook 1a or 2?)

He's upped his points per game to 13.1 and had the slightest uptick in rebounds at 10.5.

Whiteside is averaging 4.5 blocks per game, almost two full blocks better than second-place Anthony Davis.

Whiteside's rim protection helps explain why the Miami Heat are second in opponent points per game (93.3) and second in opponent shooting percentage (41.2 percent).

If Whiteside keeps up this production, what stops him from getting a DeAndre Jordan offer from Miami or another team, especially with the cap spike?

Zach LaVine

After seeing LaVine take over during the dunk contest (even throwing a Space Jam tribute in there) I was worried.

LaVine is one of the best and smoothest jumpers in the NBA, and the moment he won the dunk contest I was afraid of the possibility he'd just be known as a contest dunker and never put together a cohesive game in the NBA.

If the video shows anything, it's that LaVine has the potential to be more than just a high flyer. He does have the ability to score in multiple ways.

He shoots an off-balance three to end the quarter and scores through contact while driving to the basket. He scores in transition (which we definitely knew he could do) and he even pulls up twice off the dribble.

LaVine is still shooting 43 percent for the season but is making 36 percent of his three-pointers on roughly four attempts per game. He's also increased his scoring average to 14.7 per game, all in the same number of minutes per game as last season.

And a team visit from Gary Payton about LaVine's defense are steps to proving me wrong. LaVine could be turning into a young, viable NBA player.

C.J. McCollum

McCollum has always been pegged as a shooter first, but it's something to see his handles on display like that, too. (Even if Dirk is about 50 years old.)

Doubling his minutes has allowed McCollum to transform into a solid NBA shooting guard.

Stuck to the bench behind the likes of 2014 starter Wesley Matthews, his signing a contract with the Dallas Mavericks opened the door for McCollum to make an impact.

In twice the minutes, McColllum has nearly tripled his points per game average from 2014 to 2015, going from 6.8 to 19.5 points per game.

If McCollum can keep up this production, he'll be a definite upgrade over Wesley Matthews offensively, but he hasn't replicated Matthews' defensive contributions so far.

It was known McCollum could score when he came out of Lehigh, but the question was if he could do so against higher competition.

Now that he's shown he's capable, he seems like a great complement to point guard Damian Lillard.

Andre Drummond

Poor Meyers Leonard. Just look at how active Drummond is on the glass. Lord.

We knew Drummond was one of the best rebounders in the league, but this level of boards he's racking up this season is amazing.

Taking his stats of 18 points per game and 16.5 rebounds (3.4 better than second-place DeAndre Jordan), let's try to fully understand the streak Drummond is on this first quarter of the season.

First, to be fair, these stats aren't unheard of. Here is a list of players who averaged at least 16 rebounds and 18 points in one season, according to basketball-reference.com. All finished with more rebounds and points per game than Drummond, and many of them did it multiple times:

• Wilt Chamberlain
• Bill Russell
• Elgin Baylor
• Bob Pettit
• Nate Thurmond
• Jerry Lucas
• Elvin Hayes
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
• Gus Johnson
• Moses Malone
• Walt Bellamy

What do all of these players have in common? They're Hall of Famers. 

But, all of those players averaged over 40 minutes per game during the seasons they averaged 18 and 16. Drummond is averaging 34.4 minutes per game.

Adjusting the scale to per 36 minutes to get everyone on the same level, Drummond is only 3.6 rebounds per game less that Chamberlin's all-time per-36 rebounding mark for a single season. (But when you get into 20-rebounds-per-game territory, 3.6 is a huge gap.)

Round of applause for Drummond's start.

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard is known for his on-ball defense. 

But, as shown in the video above, he's becoming a deadly outside shooter.

The reigning defensive player of the year (who can repeat if he keeps playing defense like this) has completely taken off offensively and turned himself into a scoring machine dominant defenders don't always put together.

In 20 games this season, Leonard is averaging 21.6 points per game on 51 percent shooting from the field that includes 50 percent from beyond the arc—he's a career 38 percent from three so we know he can shoot, but this is Curry-type efficiency.

Across the board, Leonard is up five points from his previous per-game average (16.5) and increased his free-throw percentage from 80 percent in 2014 to 85 percent this season.

He's averaging career highs in both rebounds and assists (7.5 and 2.6 respectively) though the jumps aren't as drastic.

Kawhi Leonard was always a scary-good defender, but if he continues to shape his offensive game, he'll be every team's nightmare.

Brandon Knight

While Brandon Knight is infamous for getting posterized, getting his ankles broken or missing open layups (yeesh), he’s really turning into a good young player.

Knight is tied for 12th in the league in scoring, averaging 21.6 points per game. He’s shooting a career-high 45 percent from the field (on a career-high 17.5 attempts per game).

He’s shooting 37 percent from the three-point line and 81 percent on free throws. His 5.2 assists per game are a bump from his career average of 4.5, and his 4.4 assists are a jump from a career of 3.2.

Knight will probably never escape the haunt of DeAndre Jordan. (And once you get the Jim Ross treatment, it’s over. You’re officially part of basketball lore, forever.)

But, in Phoenix he’s morphing into a very good player and, at still only 24, he could turn into a star.

Rajon Rondo

After a tumultuous relationship with the Dallas Mavericks last season (a colossal failure of a trade), Rondo was banished to the depths of basketball hell, Sacramento. (Sorry for the harsh words, Kings fans.)

His assist total with Dallas (6.5) over 46 games was his lowest since his second year in the league. Last year was just a season we'd like to forget.

His career seemed to be in mini-turmoil because he had such a strange stretch in Dallas; no one knew where his career was going.

But Rondo has more than bounced back from the Dallas debacle and reminded us he's one of the best passing point guards in the league.

In the video, you can see the vintage Rondo fake-behind-the-back into a one-handed pass off the dribble to Rudy Gay for the finish.

Rondo is back at the top in assists per game with 11.01 and all is right in the basketball distribution industry.

Draymond Green

Stephen Curry garners most of the attention for the Warriors, and rightfully so; he's the best basketball player in the world right now.

But Draymond Green is the engine to the Warriors. His length, size and ability to defend all five positions is the cog that allows the Lineup of Death (Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Curry, Klay Thompson and Green) to operate.

Green has upped his points per game from 11.7 in 2014 to 13.0 in 2015. His rebounds are up from 8.2 last season to 8.5 this year.

Yet, there are two glaring differences in Green's numbers. The first is he's averaging seven assists, up from his 3.7 average last year. And, Green is shooting 38 percent beyond the arc, up from 34 percent last year.

Green was paid $80 million for his ability to defend and contribute on all aspects of offense, but not at this level. He's a walking triple double every night the likes of Rondo. And Rondo is a point guard.

Paul George

When Paul George injured his leg during a team USA scrimmage in March of 2014, it was the most gruesome basketball injury I had seen since Louisville's Kevin Ware.

(I've only seen the replay of George's injury once. It makes my stomach turn.)

George returned for the final six games of the 2014-15 season, but he didn't really look like Paul George. He averaged a shade less than nine points per game over that stretch, shooting 36 percent from the field. (Though he did say the games were immensely important toward his mental hurdles, per David Aldridge of NBA.com)

It was worrisome. Sports fans are overreactive about a lot of things, but that injury just made me nervous that Paul George wouldn't be himself again.

But I was wrong. George is back to being a full-blown MVP candidate and a player who has transitioned well into his new role of playing power forward.

In 20 games this season, George is averaging 27.7 points per game on 45 percent shooting from the field and 45 percent from beyond the three-point line. His 8.2 rebounds per game would be a career high (barring the six games he played last year).

Welcome back, Paul George. Welcome back. Wel... (*cries tears of joy*).

Kristaps Porzingis

Twenty games into his rookie season and Proznigis already has a putback dunk compilation.

I have a confession:

When NBA commissioner Adam Silver stepped up to the podium to announce the third pick, I was nervous the 76ers (my favorite team) were going to draft Porzingis. I thought if any player would be a bust, it'd be the player from Latvia everyone heard about but never saw.

As a basketball fan, I'm glad my assumption was wrong. Porzingis is a baller.

Porzingis crashed the NBA scene since Day 1 and has been arguably the most pleasant surprise of this rookie class (a list that includes the versatility of Karl-Anthony Towns).

Speaking of Towns—the No. 1 overall pick of this draft class—his production is minimally more than Porzingis.

Towns averages 14.8 points per game, second among rookies (Jahlil Okafor is first). Porzingis is third with 14.6 points per contest.

Towns is first among rookies with 9.1 rebounds per game. Porzingis is second, averaging 8.9.

Both players shoot above 80 percent from the free-throw line and are the only rookies over 20 PER. 

We knew Towns had the talent, but we didn't know Porzingis would show out this soon, and this is only a couple of months after being booed at the draft.

I would've booed that night, too, Knicks fans, but that's why I confessed. I'm happy I was wrong.