New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (10-2) will look to end their first two-game losing streak since 2012 and cover the spread for the first time in more than a month when they visit the Houston Texans (6-6) in the Week 14 Sunday night matchup. The last time the Patriots lost three in a row was 2002 when they dropped four straight following a 3-0 start. They won the Super Bowl the previous season.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.3-20.3 Texans

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England may have suffered a bit of a hangover last week in a 35-28 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as eight-point favorites, but you can bet head coach Bill Belichick’s team will be prepared for an offensively challenged Houston team. Belichick is very familiar with his former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, who is the head coach of the Texans, along with quarterback Tom Brady’s former backup Brian Hoyer.

The Patriots also have to be motivated to finish the regular season strong considering they no longer own the top seed in the AFC. That distinction now belongs to the Denver Broncos, who defeated them two weeks ago as 2.5-point home underdogs. While there’s no doubt Brady misses tight end Rob Gronkowski (knee), he will have another week under his belt working with the team’s current group of receivers.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans have lost two of the last three meetings with New England on the road and should be fired up to be hosting the defending Super Bowl champions in prime time and on national television. The other matchup between the teams took place two years ago in Houston and resulted in a 34-31 loss with them covering as seven-point home dogs.

Defensively, the Texans also have the best pass-rusher in the NFL in J.J. Watt, who has taken over the league lead in sacks with 13.5. New England’s Chandler Jones has been held without a sack the last three games while Watt has picked up four during that stretch. Watt’s ability to pressure Brady could be the deciding factor in this game.

Smart pick

The Patriots have averaged nearly 37 points in winning four of the past five meetings both straight up and against the spread, but their current offense is a shell of itself and will be facing a Houston team fighting for a playoff berth. New England has not covered a road game since Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills and is also 0-3-1 ATS in its last four overall. This is a bigger game for the Texans, who will play the Pats tough and cover.

Betting trends

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Texans.

The Texans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs in December.

The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss.

All point spreads and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.