Why Jose Mourinho's Chelsea Future Will Be Determined by UCL Clash with Porto
The Champions League has been Jose Mourinho's saving grace this season.
Lose to Porto at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday however, and the Chelsea boss would have surely traded in his one trump card.
It's been Chelsea's European journey that has saved Mourinho from losing his job. It's the only logical explanation for why Roman Abramovich hasn't handed him his P45.
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A successful defence of the Premier League title has long since passed and we haven't even reached Christmas. After the weekend defeat to Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge—Chelsea's fourth home defeat in eight matches this term—a place in the top four is also looking out of reach.
That means automatic qualification for the Champions League next season is gone—that much Mourinho admitted himself after Saturday's defeat.
Speaking on the eve of his Champions League showdown with former employers Porto, Mourinho wasn't so quick to acknowledge where he stands personally at Chelsea.
"I think I've done lots of good things at this club for [Roman Abramovich] to know the qualities that I have," Mourinho told the gathered media at Cobham on Tuesday.
"[...] I don't think the owner is one to change with the wind [and] I know this wind is really strong because the results in the Premier League are really bad."
The wind at Chelsea isn't just strong, it's a full-on hurricane.
We're still baffled how a team of champions containing the talents of John Terry, Cesc Fabregas and Eden Hazard has even got to this point.
Given how Mourinho is still to arrest the decline, it's evident he is too.
We thought Chelsea's victory over Dynamo Kiev in early November was the turning point in all of this.
With his family sitting behind the dugout for moral support that night, Mourinho was able to ride a wave of emotion that poured from the terraces to earn him a stay of execution in west London.
A 2-1 victory helped his cause, but the chants of his name from the crowd played a bigger part. The Chelsea fans united the club, but it would have been for nothing if a wounded Porto arrive in west London and kill Chelsea's Champions League hopes.
This is the day of judgement.
It's a simple task on paper. Avoid defeat and Chelsea will progress into the last 16 and there's no reason Mourinho should be looking over his shoulder regardless of the league predicament.
It's if Porto snatch victory that things will get complicated. The Portuguese side would go through as group winners, leaving Chelsea to rely on results elsewhere to determine their fate.
It'll rest on whether or not Maccabi Tel Aviv—the whipping boys of Group G who have lost all five of their games to date—can pull off a shock away win at Dynamo Kiev.
Chelsea can ill-afford to tempt fate so brutally. More to the point, Mourinho can't.
The Chelsea boss has often poked fun at the Europa League, deeming it not fit for purpose. It's a competition where he doesn't see himself; it's not one for the elite.
If he takes the Blues there on Wednesday, it will be a spectacular fall from grace, and Abramovich would surely have seen enough.
Chelsea's season will be over and it's from there that the rebuilding process will begin. And when teams reach that stage midseason, it's a rare occurrence the manager is leading the comeback.
The Champions League is the holy grail in west London. It always has been, especially with the success Chelsea have enjoyed domestically.
They've long had a stab at establishing themselves on the continent, with just one successful season in 13 not enough to satisfy Abramovich.
It's for that reason manager after manager has come and gone at Stamford Bridge. The moment Champions League success is at risk or gone completely, the axe falls.
Andre Villas-Boas suffered such a fate soon after a 3-1 loss away to Napoli seemed to knock Chelsea out in the last 16. Roberto Di Matteo picked up the reins and took the Blues to an unlikely victory that May.
Six months after sealing a first European Cup, Di Matteo was gone himself. The timing was similar to Villas-Boas, but on this occasion it followed elimination from the Champions League group stage.
All the while Chelsea compete in Europe, Mourinho is safe. It's when that ends that we'll see Abramovich play his hand.
For Mourinho's sake, that can't come on Wednesday evening.
The irony in all of this is that it was Mourinho's success with Porto that got him the job at Chelsea over a decade ago. From there he became a Chelsea legend to be held in the affections of supporters.
Now at his lowest ebb, it's the club who started it all that has the chance to end Mourinho's Chelsea love affair once and for all.
Garry Hayes is Bleacher Report's lead Chelsea correspondent. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter @garryhayes
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