College Football Playoff 2015-16: TV Schedule, Odds and Projections
Just when you thought you had the answers during the 2015 regular season, the college football gods changed the question.
North Carolina and Stanford could've created some fun during the conference championships, but instead, Alabama, Michigan State, Clemson and Oklahoma all advanced to the College Football Playoff. They're the best teams in the country, leaving little controversy with the committee's final rankings.
Considering how straightforward sorting out the top-four seeds proved to be, one or two surprises are likely on the horizon in the two respective semifinals.
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Below are three predictions for the Cotton Bowl Classic and Orange Bowl.
Playoff Schedule
| Dec. 31 | Capital One Orange Bowl | No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Clemson | 4 p.m. | ESPN | OKLA (-4) |
| Dec. 31 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State | 8 p.m. | ESPN | BAMA (-9.5) |
| Jan. 11 | College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T | Oklahoma/Clemson vs. Alabama/Michigan State | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | TBD |
Projections
Michigan State Can't Duplicate Ohio State's Success vs. Alabama
This time last year, a large segment of college football fans discounted a Big Ten team's chances against Alabama in the national semifinals. Then, Ohio State upended the Crimson Tide en route to a national title.
Michigan State fans are clinging to the hope lightning can strike twice.
The problem for the Spartans is they lack the offensive personnel who sparked the Buckeyes to victory.
In Cardale Jones, OSU had a somewhat mobile quarterback whom the Alabama defense at least had to respect. J.T. Barrett is the better runner of the two Buckeye QBs, but Jones is tough to bring down when he gets a full head of steam.
Devin Smith's speed at wideout stretched the Alabama secondary, and he used that to his advantage when he caught passes of 47 and 40 yards against the Tide.
Most importantly, Ohio State had Ezekiel Elliott, a running back with a perfect blend of size, strength, speed and agility. No player was more instrumental to the Buckeyes' win than Elliott.
From a personnel and stylistic perspective, Michigan State couldn't be much more different than last year's OSU team. LJ Scott isn't on Elliott's level, and Aaron Burbridge isn't the downfield threat Smith was.
The Spartans do possess one of the better quarterbacks in the country: Connor Cook. However, Cook has just 80 rushing yards this season, and there's no guarantee he'll be 100 percent even with an over-three-week layoff between the Big Ten title game and Cotton Bowl Classic.
After Michigan State's win over Iowa, the star senior admitted his injured shoulder adversely affected his performance.
"When you're out there with a dinged shoulder, you are kind of cautious," Cook said, per ESPN.com's Dan Murphy. "You are thinking in the back of your mind, 'If I get tackled, could I possibly injure it more?' There were times when I was a little hesitant on throws and trusting the pocket. The next few weeks are going to be huge for that progress."
If Michigan State fans are counting on "Ohio State did it last year" as their biggest reason for predicting an upset of Alabama, they might want to look elsewhere.
Jake Coker Will Be More Important to Alabama Offense Than Derrick Henry
No running back has been more consistent in college football this year than Derrick Henry, with the possible exception of Dalvin Cook.
Three of the four games in which Henry failed to eclipse 100 yards on the ground came against Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Monroe and Charleston Southern—situations in which he didn't need to take a high volume of carries.
Henry is one of three Heisman Trophy finalists, and he has to be considered the favorite to win at this point of the season.
As talented as the junior runner is, you wonder whether Alabama's reliance on him might become an issue against Michigan State. As the Post & Courier's Aaron Brenner noted, Henry's workload increased a bit in the second half of the season:
Michigan State's run defense can blow hot and cold, but the Spartans effectively shut down two of the best running backs they faced this year. Elliott averaged 2.9 yards a carry in MSU's upset win in Columbus, while Royce Freeman's 3.8 yards a carry against the Spartans was nearly three yards fewer than his season average (6.6).
As a result, Alabama might need Jake Coker to step up in a way he hasn't had to yet in 2015.
The Crimson Tide might be better off attacking the Spartans secondary anyway. Whereas Michigan State ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed, it is 73rd in passing yards allowed. They're also 69th in passing efficiency defense.
The Spartans may be able to limit Henry to under four yards a carry—something only Arkansas has done this year—but Coker will pick up his offense and give Henry a break for once.
Clemson Will Throw Away Early Lead against Oklahoma Before Suffering First Loss
Three times this year Clemson made things unnecessarily difficult for itself after jumping out to somewhat significant second-half leads.
Notre Dame was feet away from wiping out an 18-point deficit after outscoring the Tigers 16-3 in the fourth quarter. South Carolina also scored 29 second-half points to turn what otherwise looked to be a Clemson blowout into a competitive game.
In the ACC championship, North Carolina was a blown call away from having the ball with a chance to tie the game in the final minute after Clemson jumped out to a 19-point lead early in the fourth. Matt Hinton was correct in his assessment that you never thought the Tar Heels were going to win the game:
Still, the Tigers didn't close well and made the win much tougher than it should've ever been.
According to cfbstats.com, Clemson has had a noticeable dip, particularly against the pass the longer a game goes on:
| First | 45.2 | 337 | 2 | 456 | 4.07 | 4 |
| Second | 43.8 | 458 | 3 | 326 | 2.61 | 2 |
| Third | 48.1 | 595 | 2 | 436 | 3.69 | 4 |
| Fourth | 47.0 | 780 | 9 | 456 | 4.70 | 4 |
Clemson's tendency to close poorly will be its undoing against Oklahoma.
In Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, the Sooners have two running backs who can systematically wear down the Tigers defense. The more success those two have on the ground, the more the field will open up for Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma passing game.
Oklahoma may struggle to keep up with Clemson early in the game as its secondary is put the test by Deshaun Watson. The Tigers could even jump out to a double-digit advantage. Their lead will slowly dwindle, though, as Mayfield starts taking center stage.
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney will start getting more conservative with his play-calling, coaching not to lose rather than to win the game, in a similar fashion to how he called the fourth quarter against Notre Dame.
Unlike the Fighting Irish, the Sooners will have the offensive weapons to complete the comeback and advance to the national championship.
Note: College Football Playoff odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.
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