College Football Playoff Championship 2016: Date, Schedule, Odds and Predictions
College football fans can universally agree the playoff committee selected the four best teams to play in the semifinals. Picking the two teams destined to make the national championship is bound to create a little more division.
In some years, you have one or two teams that have the right combination of talent and coaching that makes them stand out above the rest of the competition.
That isn't the case in 2015, with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Michigan State all possessing discernible problems with varying degrees.
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Below are predictions for how each of the two semifinals will unfold.
Playoff Schedule
| Dec. 31 | Capital One Orange Bowl | No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Clemson | 4 p.m. | ESPN | OKLA (-4) |
| Dec. 31 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State | 8 p.m. | ESPN | BAMA (-9.5) |
| Jan. 11 | College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T | Oklahoma/Clemson vs. Alabama/Michigan State | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | TBD |
Preview and Predictions
Orange Bowl
Oklahoma may be the hottest team in the country, but it's still surprising to see it favored over the only unbeaten team remaining in the FBS. The way their year has played out so far, though, the Sooners will get the better of the Tigers, per ESPN Stats & Info:
The success or failure of the Oklahoma running game may be the deciding factor in who advances from this semifinal.
Baker Mayfield has received a lot of deserved credit for the Sooners' second-half turnaround, but the combination of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine has been excellent since the defeat to Texas earlier in the year. Here's a look at how their numbers improved in the back end of the campaign:
| vs. Akron | 11 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD | 5 CAR, 27 YDS |
| at Tennessee | 23 CAR, 78 YDS | 10 CAR, 38 YDS |
| vs. Tulsa | 22 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD | 6 CAR, 28 YDS |
| vs. West Virginia | 16 CAR, 65 YDS | 6 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD |
| at Texas | 10 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD | 6 CAR, 24 YDS |
| at Kansas State | 11 CAR, 56 YDS | 15 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD |
| vs. Texas Tech | 23 CAR, 201 YDS, 4 TD | 16 CAR, 154 YDS, 2 TD |
| at Kansas | 11 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD | 6 CAR, 44 YDS |
| vs. Iowa State | 13 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD | 8 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD |
| at Baylor | 28 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD | 7 CAR, 7 YDS |
| vs. TCU | 26 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD | 11 CAR, 87 YDS |
| at Oklahoma State | 17 CAR, 131 YDS, 2 TD | 14 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD |
Pro Football Focus' Gordon McGuinness provided some advanced metrics to put Mixon and Perine's combined performance into perspective:
"Between weeks seven and thirteen, when the Sooners played their last game of the regular season, their running backs had improved so much that both running backs graded in the top 12 at the position. Perine (+15.6) came in at 8th, forcing 33 missed tackles on 129 carries, while Mixon (+15.1) forced 23 from 75 and was 12th. Grade wise they have been the best running back tandem in the country in the second half of 2015. With the best quarterback in the country to go with that, it just makes their offense all the more dangerous heading into the College Football Playoff semi-final.
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If there's any weakness in the otherwise stout Clemson defense, it's the Tigers' work against the run. They're allowing 128.8 yards a game (26th) and rank 13th in Football Outsiders' S&P+ run defense metric. Neither figure is necessarily bad, but they're both a step back from where the defense sits in most measuring sticks for pass defense.
Oklahoma won't want this game turning into a battle of quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson is the best quarterback in the country and capable of beating you with his arms or legs. Mayfield simply can't stack up with the Heisman Trophy finalist head-to-head.
In addition, Clemson boasts a better secondary that's allowing 166.9 passing yards a game, compared to 201.5 yards a game for Oklahoma.
Should Mixon and Perine consistently gain positive yards against the Tigers, then they'll have no choice but to respect the Sooners' running game, which will level the playing field for Mayfield against Watson.
The Orange Bowl could be a suitable national championship considering the strength of these teams. The Sooners get the slight edge by virtue of their strong backfield. Mixon and Perine put Oklahoma on their backs one more time to put the Big 12 champion into the national championship.
Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Clemson 21
Cotton Bowl Classic
Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio might be wishing his team had drawn the fourth seed instead of No. 3 since the Spartans arguably have a tougher matchup against Alabama than they would have against Clemson.
Over the last few years, the Crimson Tide have had the hardest time against teams with some combination of of an uptempo offense, a mobile quarterback and speedy wideouts who can stretch the field.
Michigan State, meanwhile, is built much in the same way as Alabama. The Spartans have a deliberate offensive style perfectly encapsulated by their 22-play, 82-yard drive that led to their game-winning touchdown against Iowa in the Big Ten championship.
At least since Saban took over, fighting fire with fire is generally a recipe for failure against Alabama.
The Spartans know that all too well after losing the 2011 Capital One Bowl 49-7 to the Crimson Tide. Dantonio's team gained just 171 yards, including rushing for minus-48 yards.
"We were 11-1 as we went down there that particular day and had some turnovers, and it became a rough day as things sort of spun out of control a little bit," said Dantonio of the loss, per Mike Griffith of MLive.com. "That was our first game in a situation like that ... we're going to find out if we've grown up a little bit."
Michigan State fans are likely looking at Alabama's semifinal defeat to Ohio State last year as reason for optimism.
If you go by the numbers, though, this year's Spartans can't match up with the Buckeyes team that won a national championship:
| Total Offense (YPG) | 396.8 (68th) | 511.6 (9th) |
| Passing Offense (YPG) | 236.1 (53rd) | 247.1 (52nd) |
| Rushing Offense (YPG) | 160.7 (78th) | 264.5 (9th) |
| S&P+ Rating (Offense) | 36.5 (26th) | 47.6 (1st) |
| Total Defense (YPG) | 342.9 (26th) | 328.0 (15th) |
| Pass Defense (YPG) | 229.8 (73rd) | 188.2 (17th) |
| Rush Defense (YPG) | 113.1 (7th) | 139.8 (33rd) |
| S&P+ Rating (Defense) | 18.8 (13th) | 17.4 (11th) |
| F/+ Combined Rating | 44.8% (6th) | 69.6% (1st) |
Cardale Jones was enough of a threat on the ground that Alabama had to respect his legs, and Devin Smith was the kind of receiver who could beat the Crimson Tide secondary over the top. He only caught two passes, one of which was a 47-yard touchdown.
The Buckeyes also had Ezekiel Elliott, who went for 230 yards and two touchdowns.
LJ Scott might carve open the Alabama defense in the same manner Elliott did, but nothing he's done this year leads you to believe that will happen.
Michigan State has passed all of its biggest tests this year, but the wins over Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa came by a combined 13 points.
The Spartans have teetered on the brink quite a bit in 2015, and playing Alabama might be when their biggest flaws become exposed.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan State 20
Note: College Football Playoff odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
