Rose Bowl 2016: Full Preview and Predictions for Stanford vs. Iowa
The Rose Bowl wasn't what either Stanford or Iowa wanted. A month ago, the Cardinal were a playoff hopeful that likely only had to win out to earn a chance at a national title. A week ago, the Hawkeyes were the national No. 3 seed, with only Michigan State standing in their way.
Neither got the job done.
Stanford saw its playoff dreams dashed in a 38-36 loss to Oregon, and Iowa went down in a 16-13 classic against the Spartans on Saturday. Instead, they wind up heading to Pasadena in a traditional Rose Bowl matchup that doubles as an intriguing consolation prize.
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Iowa fared far better in the Big Ten Championship Game than nearly every skeptic expected. The Hawkeyes skated through the regular season without having to play Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State or Michigan, a rare scheduling quirk that helped them glide through undefeated. But what made some skeptical was the way Iowa failed to win with style points. Five of its wins came by single digits, with Minnesota, Indiana and Nebraska being among the close calls.
All the doubts washed away Saturday night. Iowa played Michigan State as well if not better than Ohio State, holding Connor Cook in check and forcing a grind-it-out slugfest that went down to the last minute. The Hawkeyes' inability to stop the Spartans on a 22-play, nine-minute drive that sealed the deal ultimately came down to their formidable defense running out of gas.
“They had it when they needed it,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said, per John Bohnenkamp of the Hawkeye. “We couldn’t quite get off the field. It’s that close. It’s how close this game was.”
Nonetheless, when the playoff committee ranked Iowa over Ohio State, it proved to be validation of the team's season-long effort.
“To play in any New Year’s Day bowl is great,” Ferentz said, per Mitch Sherman of ESPN.com. “To play in the Rose Bowl is really special if you coach in the Big Ten. Every game is important. To win this one would be a really big accomplishment.”
Iowa will come up against a Stanford team with its own elite ground game. Running back Christian McCaffrey emerged this season as a Heisman candidate, rushing for 1,847 yards and seven touchdowns. The son of former NFL receiver Ed McCaffrey, Christian also broke Barry Sanders' single-season record for all-purpose yards. He also returns kicks and was Stanford's leading receiver in the regular season.
"One-handed catches, making guys miss, finishing 40 yards into the end zone, it's just every day," coach David Shaw said last month, per Ivan Maisel of ESPN.com. "And he comes back, and there's no fanfare. A lot of guys, 'Hey, did you see that?' He comes back and it's ready for the next play."
| Date | Time | Network | Stream |
| Friday, Jan. 1 | 5 p.m. ET | ESPN | WatchESPN |
McCaffrey's brilliance has made things easier on Kevin Hogan, who turned in a quietly efficient senior season. Hogan threw for 2,644 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions, completing nearly 69 percent of his passes while also adding 312 yards on the ground.
The McCaffrey-Hogan duo will offer an interesting challenge for Iowa, which faced a similarly stellar punch against Michigan State. LJ Scott and Madre London are not on the same level as McCaffrey from a dynamism standpoint, but Connor Cook is an improvement over Hogan, and both teams run a more traditional pro-style attack.
Iowa's offense has been mostly an accessory to its defense all season but has consistently found ways to churn out yardage. C.J. Beathard's 85-yard touchdown pass to Tevaun Smith was the most exciting play of the Big Ten Championship Game, and the Hawkeyes have scored 35 touchdowns on the ground this season. Four players (Beathard, Akrum Wadley, LeShun Daniels Jr. and Jordan Canzeri) have rushed for at least six touchdowns.
That's one area where the Hawkeyes could have some success, as Stanford allowed opponents to average 4.6 yards per carry this season. Playing in a more pass-oriented Pac-12 helped the Cardinal avoid having a truly below-average run defense—they rank 53rd nationally in counting stats—but they're far from perfect. Football Outsiders FEI metric ranked Stanford 54th overall during the regular season.
The victor here likely comes down to which team can play to its strengths the most. Iowa has spent its entire season thwarting opposing running attacks. It's not allowed a play of longer than 37 yards, and only 10 times have the Hawkeyes been scored against on the ground. Only Navy and Akron have been better at limiting big plays.
Stanford has spent its entire season with McCaffrey carrying the load. If he's able to perform at even 75 percent of his regular-season averages, Stanford will come away with a win. Iowa's offense just isn't explosive enough to keep up with his dynamism. That said, Michigan State learned the hard way that the Hawkeyes have the ability to dictate the pace themselves.
Look for this to be another down-to-the-wire finish.
Prediction: Iowa 20, Stanford 17
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