Bowl Projections 2015: Playoff Predictions and Championship Odds
There weren't many surprises when the College Football Playoff committee announced the Final Four on Sunday.
As expected following the results from Saturday’s games, the Clemson Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Michigan State Spartans and Oklahoma Sooners—four conference champions from the Power Five—will be the representatives in the second annual tournament.
The only slight tweak was Michigan State jumping a spot to No. 3 to pass Oklahoma, which didn’t play Saturday after winning the Big 12 outright in the regular season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The minor shuffle arguably creates more appealing matchups in the semifinal round, pitting Alabama head coach Nick Saban against protege Mark Dantonio of Michigan State in a game that should feature rugged, hard-hitting defense.
Clemson and Oklahoma creates appeal for the unknown. The Tigers are college football’s lone unbeaten, but they haven’t been on such a grand stage since winning the national championship in 1981. And the Sooners successfully pulled off one of the biggest dark-horse campaigns by rising from No. 15 in the initial rankings after Week 10.
RJ Bell of Pregame.com shared the early championship odds as of Sunday's announcement:
Here is a look at the matchups and spreads for the pair of games on New Year's Eve and the most recent polls released Sunday:
| Game | Matchup | Time | Venue | TV | Odds |
| Orange Bowl | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma | 4 p.m. ET | Sun Life Stadium (Miami, Fla.) | ESPN | Oklahoma (-3) |
| Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State | 8 p.m. ET | AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) | ESPN | Alabama (-9) |
Predictions
ORANGE BOWL: Clemson vs. Oklahoma
ACC champion Clemson opens as a three-point underdog against the Big 12’s best in Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is the hot pick, given its rapid ascension in the polls and convincing trio of wins over the Baylor Bears, TCU Horned Frogs and Oklahoma State Cowboys to finish the season and claim the conference crown.
Clemson hasn’t displayed the dominance it rode to through the first two months of the season, outscoring its final five opponents by 10.6 points per game, down from a margin of 23 during its 8-0 start.
The Tigers still enter the playoff unblemished and with wins over the No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, No. 9 Florida State Seminoles and No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels as of Sunday’s latest AP polls.
These teams met last December in the Russell Athletic Bowl, and believe it or not, Clemson was a three-point underdog in that game as well. The Tigers went on to win, 40-6.
But this Oklahoma season has been one of redemption, as ESPN Stats & Info showed:
Midway through last season, they were all but irrelevant. And now they’re two wins away from their first national title since 2000.
Not many thought the Ohio State Buckeyes had a remote chance to knock off heavyweights Alabama and the Oregon Ducks in consecutive games a year ago, and the Sooners certainly have a team capable.
CFP committee chairman Jeff Long even alluded that there was an argument the Sooners should be No. 1, per Dr. Saturday:
But the Tigers will be ready. They’ve stumbled somewhat to season’s end, but still remain perfect—a testament to their poise. A win over respectable North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game was a great warm-up for what will be arguably the biggest games in program history ahead.
Prediction: Clemson wins
COTTON BOWL: Alabama vs. Michigan State
Alabama opening as a nine-point favorite against a Michigan State team that has won seven of its last eight in Top 10 matchups says a lot about the conviction Vegas has in the Crimson Tide.
The Spartans looked vulnerable in their 16-13 Big Ten Championship win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, with just 283 yards of total offense before their game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
Iowa’s defense is certainly respectable, but Alabama’s will give Sparty a rude awakening. The Tide are coming off an SEC Championship Game win over the Florida Gators in which they went on an eight-possession stretch from the second to fourth quarter where they limited Florida to -17 yards.
Florida’s offense is among the worst in the SEC, ranking 12th overall with 381 yards per game and 11th in scoring—24.5 points per game—but such a convincing performance from Alabama shouldn’t be discredited by virtue of its opponent.
Since its Week 3 loss to Ole Miss—which prompted brash speculation that the Tide’s dynasty may be over—Alabama has churned out dominating wins like clockwork and did so through its archetype: defense.
ESPN College Football shared a graphic of the Tide’s defensive run since their lone loss this season:
Michigan State will make it close and will counter with a strong defense of its own. But this year has another feel of crimson.
Prediction: Alabama wins
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