Cotton Bowl 2015: Full Preview and Predictions for Alabama vs. Michigan State
Right about now, the Michigan State Spartans might be hoping they were the fourth seed instead of the third in the College Football Playoff as they look at their opponent for the 2015 Cotton Bowl Classic.
Instead of facing off with the top-ranked Clemson Tigers, which might have been a slightly easier matchup, the Spartans play the Alabama Crimson Tide, pitting Nick Saban against the school he coached from 1995-99.
Aesthetically, Alabama vs. Michigan State isn't the first head-to-head clash fans would choose to see in the playoff, but fighting fire with fire might be the best way to topple the Crimson Tide. The Spartans aren't a carbon copy of the SEC champions, but the two teams share many similarities.
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Few gave Ohio State a chance of knocking Alabama out last year, so lightning may well strike twice in the playoff.
Cotton Bowl Classic Information
When: Thursday, Dec. 31 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Watch: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
Ticket Info: ScoreBig.com
Preview and Prediction
Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio must have "Stop Derrick Henry" scribbled atop his team's to-do list ahead of its semifinal battle with Alabama.
Henry looks like a man among boys at times on the field with the way he runs through tackles and seemingly welcomes contact. He's the kind of running back who wears down an opposing defense the longer the game goes, which is illustrated by this incredible statistic from Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee:
You wonder, however, whether Henry's workload will start to be an issue for Alabama. Through the Crimson Tide's first eight games, he carried the ball 180 times. Through their last five games, he has touched the ball 159 times out of the backfield, including 90 carries over the last two weeks.
"I can't tell you how proud I am of this guy," said Saban after the SEC Championship victory over Florida on Saturday, per Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh. "He's had a phenomenal season, and he deserves every accolade that anyone could ever throw his way."
Michigan State's run defense tends to run hot or cold depending on the week.
The Spartans successfully bottled up Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott and Oregon's Royce Freeman, who averaged 2.8 and 3.8 yards, respectively, against them in defeats. However, they also allowed 255 combined yards on the ground to Purdue's Markell Jones and Nebraska's Imani Cross.
Dantonio's team is allowing 113.1 rushing yards a game, seventh in the country, but the advanced metrics are a little less favorable. Football Outsiders has the Spartans at No. 21 in its S&P+ rush defense rating.
Alabama is much more than a one-man team, especially with quarterback Jake Coker's improvement in the second half of the season. Still, limiting Henry to under five yards a carry would put the Spartans in a great position to advance to the national championship game.
The layoff between the Big Ten Championship Game and Cotton Bowl should help Michigan State in its bid for a national title. The more time Connor Cook has to recover from his shoulder injury, the better.
Cook went 16-of-32 for 191 yards and an interception against Iowa, and Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde observed that the senior quarterback remains less than 100 percent:
In past years, the Spartans have had running backs such as Javon Ringer, Jeremy Langford and Le'Veon Bell who could shoulder much of the offensive burden.
If Michigan State had a running back of that caliber this year, Cook's health wouldn't be as much of a deciding factor. LJ Scott impressed in the Big Ten title game, particularly on his game-winning touchdown run, but he hasn't quite played to the level of some of his predecessors in the Spartans backfield.
Scott certainly lacks the explosiveness of Elliott, who carved the Tide defense open to the tune of 230 yards and two touchdowns in last year's semifinals.
A consistent running game certainly isn't a prerequisite to beating Alabama. Jaylen Walton and Jordan Wilkins combined to run for 72 yards in Ole Miss' upset of the Crimson Tide in September. The Rebels also forced five turnovers, while Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns.
While Michigan State has earned the seventh-most takeaways in the country (28), the chances that 'Bama has a similarly sloppy game are slim. In addition, Cook will have a hard time replicating Kelly's numbers, especially if his shoulder continues to give him trouble.
The Spartans might be able to keep this game close by virtue of their defense, but Alabama is a better team across the board and should prevail in the end.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan State 20
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