College Football Playoff Rankings: Biggest Takeaways from Week 14
Conference Championship Week is over, which means we're hours instead of days away from learning who made the College Football Playoff.
Week 14's results made the selection committee's job easier, but that doesn't mean the reveal will lack intrigue. It won't have the intrigue of last year's reveal, but some questions still need answers.
Here is what we learned on Saturday. Scroll to the bottom for a prediction of the semifinal matchups.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The Selection Committee Gets Its Wish
The selection committee got its dream scenario with Clemson beating North Carolina and Alabama beating Florida.
The Tigers, Crimson Tide and Oklahoma will join 12-1 Big Ten champion Michigan State in the national semifinals, barring something wildly unforeseen.
That "something wildly unforeseen" would be Stanford jumping Michigan State, which is possible—technically—after the Cardinal beat USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game but still a giant long shot. Stanford has lost two games to MSU's one, including a loss to Oregon, which MSU beat. The common opponent ends that argument before it starts.
Even Pac-12 Networks acknowledged this reality, captioning a video of Stanford with a mention of the non-playoff Rose Bowl:
Last year's selection show was gravid with intrigue. Would Ohio State pass TCU? Would Baylor pass TCU? Who would claim the fourth spot? We waited on pins and needles to see which teams made the field.
This year is the opposite. We know which teams made the field. The only intrigue lies in where they're ranked.
The Biggest Question: Will Alabama Play Oklahoma?
If the current rankings hold, No. 1 Clemson will play No. 4 Michigan State and No. 2 Alabama will play No. 3 Oklahoma.
But will the current rankings hold?
The committee might not want Alabama playing Oklahoma, especially if they meet in the Cotton Bowl, in Dallas, where the Sooners would hold a home-field advantage. Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons, who works for the Westgate Superbook, explained this theory to Marcus DiNitto of Sporting News last week.
"I don’t see them playing Alabama," Salmons said of the Sooners. "I think they’ll get Alabama up to 1 and leave Oklahoma in the 2,3 area; or if Clemson (beats North Carolina in the ACC championship game), then they’ll drop Oklahoma to 4 and bump Iowa or Michigan State up one."
"That’s what I expect from these guys (on the selection committee)."
As far as conspiracy theories go, this one holds merit. Alabama and Oklahoma are big draws and playing well. They would make for an awesome championship game, especially since the Sooners beat Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl. Rematches sell tickets!
But moving Alabama ahead of Clemson would take some mental gymnastics. Clemson is undefeated to Alabama's 12-1, and it's not as if the Crimson Tide looked awesome beating Florida.
On the other side, Michigan State scrapped past Iowa but hardly looked impressive enough to jump Oklahoma. It might get the "conference championship game bump" and leap ahead of Oklahoma, but doing so would sound alarms from conspiracy theorists.
Keep a close eye on how the committee sorts this out.
No Matter What Happens, Alabama's First Game Will Be Awesome
There's no way Alabama plays Clemson in the first round. It will play either Oklahoma or Michigan State.
Both of those games would be awesome.
The first would be that aforementioned rematch. Oklahoma beat Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, riding a huge performance from then-starting quarterback Trevor Knight, who now backs up Baker Mayfield, to victory. It also got a huge game from then-sophomore linebacker Eric Striker, who is now a senior All-America candidate.
The second game would feature Alabama head coach Nick Saban against Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio.
Dantonio was Michigan State's defensive backs coach when Saban led the Spartans from 1995-99. Aside from Saban playing his former school in a national semifinal, he would also be playing one of his best—if not his single best—proteges.
"Coach Saban really has been probably my biggest mentor as a coach," Dantonio told reporters before the 2011 Capital One Bowl, when Alabama beat MSU 49-7. "When I had the opportunity to come here—and I probably sit here now as a head football coach because of him bringing me here—I'm very, very appreciative of that."
Dantonio also worked under former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel, winning a national title as the Buckeyes' defensive coordinator. That he mentions Saban above Tressel as his mentor says a lot about the respect those coaches share.
Saban vs. Dantonio or Saban vs. Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops would both provide awesome intrigue.
One Man's Prediction
Having parsed all the data, read all the tea leaves and consulted my (often-wrong) gut, I have come up with the following prediction.
- Orange Bowl: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State
This prediction subscribes to the Vegas theory listed above. The committee will want to move Oklahoma away from the Cotton Bowl, and the best way to do that is to drop it behind Michigan State—the rationale being how highly the committee valued Iowa—and bump the Spartans up to No. 3.
Oklahoma fans wouldn't hate that. All chips on the table, most teams don't want to play Alabama. It doesn't matter how strong Clemson has looked.
But it is worth mentioning how no matter which team Oklahoma draws, its semifinal matchup will be a rematch of a recent bowl game. The Sooners beat Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl but lost to Clemson in a landslide, 40-6, in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl.
Get ready for an awesome month of storylines!
Brian Leigh covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @BLeigh35
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