Fiesta Bowl 2016: Preview, Predictions for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
"Two legendary programs."
That was Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer's first impression when the Fiesta Bowl matchup between No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Notre Dame was officially announced, per David Jablonski of the Dayton Daily News. Both teams had College Football Playoff aspirations, but the historic clash between these two programs is as good a consolation prize as either school could ask for.
The Buckeyes (11-1) were knocked out of playoff contention when they fell to Michigan State at home in Week 12, while the Fighting Irish (10-2) had their hopes dashed by Stanford at the last second in the season finale.
That sets up this huge matchup between two of the most storied programs in college football. Ohio State and Notre Dame last met in the Fiesta Bowl in January 2006—a game the Buckeyes won 34-20.
Can the Irish draw even a decade later?
Viewing Information
Date: Friday, Jan. 1
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Place: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7Two very evenly matched teams will face off in Glendale, Arizona, on New Year's Day.
Keys to Victory for Ohio State
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Rediscover the Passing Attack
Ohio State was supposed to have one of the most potent offenses in the country this season, and a big reason for that was its bevy of talent at the quarterback position. But the Buckeyes passing attack has wavered between pedestrian and downright awful in 2015, and they'll need to find a groove in the 15 practices leading up to the Fiesta Bowl.
Quarterback J.T. Barrett will benefit greatly from those practices, and the coaching staff would be smart to work on ways to get Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller open against a secondary that has been solid all season.
Notre Dame's pass defense ranks 28th in the country, allowing an average of 195.9 yards per game, so Ohio State will have to make strides before New Year's Day.
Win the Turnover Battle
In Notre Dame's two losses, it also lost the turnover battle.
That was a huge storyline on the road against Clemson, when the Irish offense coughed the ball up four times while only forcing one turnover on defense. And in the season finale against Stanford, Notre Dame failed to turn over the Stanford offense in the close two-point loss.
Thanks to the struggles at quarterback, Ohio State didn't win the turnover battle consistently early in the season, but it improved down the stretch. The Buckeyes will have their opportunities against quarterback DeShone Kizer, who has thrown at least one interception in six of his 10 starts this year.
Keys to Victory for Notre Dame
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Get DeShone Kizer in a Rhythm
Notre Dame's offense is heavily reliant on the passing game, so getting quarterback DeShone Kizer in an early rhythm will be very important.
The sophomore signal-caller has been absolutely sensational for the Irish this season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He's been the trigger man for a passing attack that ranks 37th with 256.7 yards per game.
Kizer will need to be at his best, though, because he'll be going against one of the best pass defenses in the country. The Buckeyes secondary allows an average of 176.2 yards per game while the front seven fuels a defense that averaged 2.8 sacks per game, which is good for 16th in the country.
Stop 'Zeke
The only team to beat Ohio State this year was also the only team that was able to stop Ezekiel Elliott.
The star running back was riding a 15-game streak of 100-plus yard rushing performances when the Spartans sold out to stop him. Elliott gained just 33 yards on 12 carries in the 17-14 loss.
There's no reason for Notre Dame to try anything different. Until the Buckeyes can prove that their passing attack is functional, the Irish should use its active defensive front and outstanding linebacker unit to throw the kitchen sink at Elliott and Ohio State's elite run game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Players to Watch for Ohio State
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WR Michael Thomas
Ezekiel Elliott will have plenty of opportunities to impact the game from the backfield. If Ohio State wants to make things really difficult for the Notre Dame offense, it'll find a way to get Michael Thomas going.
The 6'3" junior is far and away Ohio State's best pass-catcher, leading the team with 49 receptions for 709 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. When Thomas is opening things up down the field, Ohio State's offense is much more dynamic because it can use him as a complement to Elliott and rushing attack.
Notre Dame has been one of the most snakebitten teams in the country, and they were dealt a heavy blow when cornerback KeiVarae Russell suffered a broken leg against Boston College. The Irish secondary will need to step up to shut down Ohio State's star wideout.
DE Joey Bosa
Superstar defensive end Joey Bosa has the ability to completely take over a game, and he'll be key in Ohio State's efforts to shut down Notre Dame's powerful offense.
Bosa's numbers are down after his breakout sophomore campaign in 2014, when he ranked fifth nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. He only has five sacks in 11 games this year, but he's still making a huge impact with 16 tackles for loss despite consistently facing double- and triple-teams.
Notre Dame does an ordinary job of protecting its quarterback, ranking 57th nationally while giving up 1.8 sacks per game. Bosa will be the best pass-rusher the Irish have faced all year, so he'll have some big opportunities in the Fiesta Bowl.
Players to Watch for Notre Dame
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RB C.J. Prosise
If Notre Dame wants to establish a rhythm offensively, it'll have to find balance with the run game.
Much of the onus will fall on senior running back C.J. Prosise, who has paced the Irish rushing attack all season long. Prosise ran for 975 yards and 11 touchdowns during Notre Dame's first nine games, highlighted by a 198-yard, three-touchdown performance against Georgia Tech in Week 3.
But he'll be going into the teeth of an Ohio State run defense that ranks No. 22 after allowing an average of 127.3 yards per game. However, the Buckeyes front seven has been susceptible to big games, like in Week 7, when Penn State freshman running back Saquon Barkley ran for 194 yards on 26 carries.
LB Jaylon Smith
Ohio State boasts one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the country in Joey Bosa. Notre Dame can counter that with one of the nation's best linebackers in Jaylon Smith.
The explosive linebacker headlines a star-studded Notre Dame defense. He leads the unit with 113 total tackles to complement nine tackles for loss, five pass breakups and five passes defended. He is an absolute monster for the Fighting Irish, evidenced by his inclusion in the Butkus Award finalist pool.
The Buckeyes' offensive struggles could be brought out single-handedly by the star Irish linebacker.
What They're Saying
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Ohio State had high expectations for making the College Football Playoff or a potential berth in the Rose Bowl, but Meyer was excited for a huge matchup with Notre Dame, according to Eric Seger of Eleven Warriors.
"I've just never have been to Rose [Bowl], but there's no disappointment," Meyer explained. "You start talking about that level of football and that level of a bowl game and that level of opponent you're going to play and you just have to get locked on."
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly said that his team wasn't exuberant about its matchup with Ohio State, per Tony Gerdeman of The-Ozone.net:
"Brian Kelly says his team wasn't jumping up and down at the Fiesta Bowl announcement because they were upset they weren't in the playoffs...
— Tony Gerdeman (@GerdOZone) December 6, 2015"
But that doesn't take away from what should be a great matchup that Kelly is looking forward to.
"Ton of respect for Urban and what he’s accomplished in his career," Kelly said, according to Nick Ironside of 247Sports. "I think it makes for a great matchup in the Fiesta Bowl."
Prediction
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It'll be a close game until Ohio State takes over in the fourth quarter.
The Buckeyes will come out hot and score the game's first 10 points thanks to the elevated play of J.T. Barrett and a rejuvenated passing attack. Michael Thomas will get the first score of the game on a perfectly placed 35-yard touchdown in the back of the end zone.
The Irish will fight back and score 14 unanswered points as DeShone Kizer gets hot, but the Buckeyes will steal momentum back right before halftime when Ezekiel Elliott breaks free for a 60-yard touchdown.
Ohio State and Notre Dame will trade touchdowns to open the third quarter, and back-to-back field-goal drives will give the Irish a 27-24 lead to open the fourth, but the Buckeyes will take over from there. Elliott and the rushing attack will dominate time of possession and put two more scores on the board as Ohio State wins it by 11.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 27
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
