Big Ten Championship 2015: Odds, Preview, Prediction for Michigan State vs. Iowa

After 13 weeks of college football action, the Big Ten Championship will come down to Iowa and Michigan State, just like we all predicted. 

OK, this isn't exactly the matchup that fans and analysts saw coming for the title game. According to Odds Shark, the Hawkeyes came into the season with just 25-1 odds to win the conference, while the Spartans started the season at 6-1. 

Yet, here we are. Iowa was one of only two schools to make it through its schedule unscathed, and the Spartans bested the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus to win the East. Now, it's likely that the winner of this game will head to the College Football Playoff. 

Here's a look at how the two teams match up. 

Odds

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Looking at the odds for this matchup, two things are clear: Those who make the lines think these two teams are fairly evenly matched up, and we are going to see some points from both offenses. 

Here are the odds and the over/under for the matchup, according to Odds Shark:

	Line	Over/Under
Michigan State	-3.5	51
Iowa	+3.5	51

Unsurprisingly, the Spartans are slight favorites. Even though Iowa is undefeated, Michigan State has been in the forefront lately with its win over Ohio State. 

The total of 51 portends a game that won't exactly be a shootout but will see it fair share of touchdowns. Using the spread and the over/under to project the game, the books see something like 28-24 in favor of Michigan State. 

So that seems to be the conventional wisdom. But do the numbers and analysts agree?

Preview

Justin Hayworth/Associated Press

Both of these teams have reputations for being old school on the offensive side of the ball. They make no qualms about wanting to line it up and run the ball effectively to set up play-action passes downfield. 

Michigan State—for instance—has run the ball 480 times this season despite only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this season (versus 368 pass attempts). 

The Hawkeyes have attempted 506 passes to just 309 pass attempts but have been much more efficient on the ground (4.83 yards per carry). 

Ultimately, this game could come down to who can throw the ball more effectively. BTN.com's Tom Dienhart spoke to a few Big Ten coaches anonymously about both participants in this game. Here's an excerpt from a coach about Iowa's defense:

"

You can beat Iowa, if Connor Cook is on, they will beat Iowa because you can throw the ball over the top on Iowa. If you have an accurate passer and an ability to throw the ball you have a chance because they don’t have great skill at safety... They don’t have anyone who puts any fear in you in the secondary as a cover guy. They play cloud coverage in the boundary and quarters to the field. But it’s not like they are challenging you in man-to-man. So, if you have an accurate guy who can throw the ball, mid-range, down the field throws, I think you can get them.

"

The metrics back this thought up as well. The S&P+ numbers from Football Outsiders, which factor in play-by-play data to evaluate play based on five factors, rank Iowa as the No. 11 defense against the run but just No. 56 against the pass. 

Conversely, the Spartans numbers indicate a defense that is adept at slowing down passing attacks (No. 8) but fall just short of being elite against the run (No. 30). 

However, coaches don't see it that way. Another coach told Dienhart that the Spartans defensive line is the best in the conference:

"

They are the best defensive front in the Big Ten. Better than Penn State’s front, they are better than Ohio State. They have some athletic big boys. (Ohio State’s Joey) Bosa didn’t play well but still got defensive lineman of the year, but he didn’t play very well in my opinion. We ran all over them.

"

Overall, the numbers might not look elite in terms of run defense, but this is the same defense that held Ezekiel Elliott to just over three yards per carry. If the Spartans key in on stopping the run, chances are they can force the Hawkeyes to do it. 

Prediction

The hidden factor in this game is turnovers. Simply put, neither team has given up the ball much to its opponents, and both have had a knack for taking the ball away. 

Through 12 games both teams are tied for fourth in the nation in turnover margin with plus-14 on the season. That's a huge factor in the success of each team. It also shows just how important the turnover battle will be in this game. 

In a game where both running attacks will have a hard time getting going and both teams thrive when they protect the ball, quarterback play will be paramount. 

That's where Michigan State's biggest advantage comes in. Connor Cook was not a factor in his team's big win over Ohio State, but he will certainly be a factor in this one. 

His performance leading into this game against Penn State showed that he is back in top form after dealing with an injured shoulder in previous weeks. 

A healthy Cook gives Michigan State the advantage as both defenses force the offenses outside of their comfort zone.

C.J. Beathard has been a tremendous manager of the offense for Iowa. He's only thrown three interceptions all season. But he isn't asked to take many risks. He throws it five times less per game than Cook on average and only has 14 touchdowns on the season to Cook's 24. 

This game will be close, and it's going to come down to which team can make plays when its running game gets shut down. 

Right now, there's more reason to believe that team is Michigan State. As long as Cook looks like he has when he's been healthy this season, he should be the difference-maker who sends Sparty to the playoff. 

Prediction: Michigan State 21, Iowa 17