Predicting the Next Wave of Future Max-Contract NBA Stars
Get your checkbooks ready, general managers and team owners. The NBA's next batch of max-contract superstuds is here.
Cash will be gift-wrapped over the next two summers as the league enjoys a series of cap eruptions. Player salaries will rise too, but teams will have truckloads of money to spend, creating a more aggressive—and thus expensive—free-agent market.
And that should mean we're in for a larger-than-normal wave of max-contract newbies.
These newcomers are typically coming off their rookie-scale deals, preparing to negotiate an extension ahead of their third season or work the restricted free-agency landscape ahead of their fifth year. Though there are a few veteran, been-in-the-league-for-six-or-more-years-without-a-max-deal exceptions, this space is predominantly dedicated to the up-and-coming megastars.
Our pool of candidates is limited to those eligible for free agency (restricted and unrestricted) over one of the next two offseasons. So forget about LeBron James and Kevin Durant for a minute.
Focus instead on those who are about to get paid like James and Durant for the very first time.
Honorable Formality: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (2017, unrestricted)
Curry, the league's reigning MVP and foremost authority on draining 29-plus-footers just because he can, doesn't even rank inside the top 50 of player salaries.
That's all set to change in less than two years' time. Curry will enter unrestricted free agency to LeBron James-circa-2010-level fanfare.
The Charlotte Hornets will beg him to come home, presumably offering to erect a statue of him outside Time Warner Cable Arena while also promising to continue honoring his father (and former Hornets player), Dell, every other week. They may even throw in a max contract for Steph's brother, Seth, just to be thorough.
The New York Knicks will play the "Hey! Remember when you wanted to be drafted by us and we wanted to draft you but the Warriors beat us to the punch by one pick and we got stuck with Jordan Hill?" card. (They'll likely ignore the "We probably would have traded you for Tracy McGrady's corpse, or for Carmelo Anthony, or maybe even for Andrea Bargnani" card.)
The Los Angeles Clippers will start a "Chris Paul Who?" campaign. The Utah Jazz will claim it never snows in Salt Lake City.
The Los Angeles Lakers will declare their loyalty to Curry over Kobe Bryant, even though the latter will be a season into retirement. The Philadelphia 76ers will promise to never tank again—without general manager/potentially former general manager Sam Hinkie crossing his fingers.
My point: Curry is good at this whole basketball thing and will be appropriately compensated with a max contract that, following a second cap explosion in 2017, breaks your average calculator.
(Housekeeping note: He's not leaving the Warriors. Sorry...everyone.)
Buzzing
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors (2016, player option)
According to the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat, DeRozan is expected to decline his player option for next season and burst onto the free-agency scene—at which point he is then expected to chase a max deal that would pay him north of $25 million in 2016-17.
So, yeah, that's not going to happen.
Teams will pay pretty pennies for All-Stars, and DeRozan is clearing 20 points, four rebounds and 3.5 assists per 36 minutes for the third consecutive season. The only other players to match his splits in each of the last three years? Curry, James Harden, Blake Griffin and LeBron James.
Still, as far as All-Stars go, DeRozan is swiftly becoming obsolete. He is an understated passer and can stack up against almost any wing on defense when he tries. But he's shooting under 27 percent from long range for his career and jacks up mid-range looks with unsettling volume.
More than 40 percent of his shot attempts are coming from No Man's Land, where he's shooting well below 35 percent. Frequent trips to the foul line help bolster his scoring, but as we've seen with Bryant, absorbing above-average amounts of contact inevitably starts to take a toll.
DeRozan will still command a lucrative payday, but his search for a max deal is fated to come up empty.
Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic (2017, restricted)
Oladipo's case for an extension this summer is bound to get interesting.
Orlando's head honcho, Scott Skiles, has relegated him to bench duty. That's never a good sign.
Except in this case.
Moving to the second unit has galvanized Oladipo's energy levels, and his stat-stuffing continues to stand out among all guards. But his already shaky three-point percentages have declined, the Magic are statistically better with him off the floor and the going rate for sixth men isn't anywhere near a max deal.
Unless the Magic cut bait with restricted-free-agent-to-be Evan Fournier, they won't be in any rush to lock up Oladipo before he can explore restricted free agency in 2017. And even if Fournier leaves, Oladipo will need to offer some type of hometown discount to incentivize immediate action on Orlando's part.
Playing out next season without an extension gives him plenty of time to drum up his stock, and the 2015-16 campaign is still young. But the Magic's surplus of ball-dominant wings (Fournier, Tobias Harris, Mario Henzonja, etc.), in addition to Elfrid Payton running point on offense, means Oladipo's usage has peaked.
He just isn't going to have the starry-eyed numbers or the role to warrant a max deal.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat (2016, unrestricted)
Insane individual stat lines guarantee Whiteside a seat at the max-contract table. But that's all he's entitled to. He won't be served a helping of max-deal casserole.
At the same time...those lines. Man, oh man, those lines.
If Whiteside's numbers hold, he'll be just the fourth player to average at least 13 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks for an entire season, joining an esteemed list that reads like a who's who of Hall of Fame towers: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson.
That, ostensibly, should end the debate. There's only one gargantuan, Hassan Whiteside-sized problem: Miami's big man is anything but a finished product.
As Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley recently underscored:
"Finding the right focus would prevent him drifting in and out of the activity. Halting his hunt for highlight blocks would stop any leaks from springing on Miami's interior. Passing out of traps could buy him extra breathing room. Feasting off lobs, dump-off passes and offensive boards alone would maximize his strengths and mask his limitations.
Without doing those things consistently, he's still dominating from an individual standpoint. But the next step is making his presence felt by the entire team. That's still a significant work in progress.
"
For all of Whiteside's box-score heroics, he has failed to have a positive impact on more profound levels. Touted for his superior shot-blocking, Whiteside actually makes the Heat worse on defense and overall.
Giants who don't drill threes or pass very well aren't incapable of dominating the max-contract discussion. (see: Drummond, Andre). Desperate teams will even see value in overpaying Whiteside. The Heat don't own his Bird rights and will have to fit his next contract under the salary cap, increasing the likelihood they're outbid.
At a time when fewer franchises are tailoring their futures to traditional bigs, though, Whiteside must first show that he can be a cornerstone rather than a stat-piler who's merely along for the ride.
Max-Money Locks
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (2017, restricted)
All of Antetokounmpo's appeal has generally come back to potential.
Think of how good he could be if he developed a consistent jumper. Just wait for him to get his turnovers and raw offensive instincts under wraps. Picture what he might become in the future.
As it turns out, the future has arrived.
Antetokounmpo's Bucks are free-falling down the Eastern Conference standings, but the third-year every-position alien is having a career year. He is only credited with playing small forward, power forward and center thus far, but he has spent time manning the point guard and shooting guard slots.
Unlike last year, he looks comfortable in his ever-swaying role. His player efficiency rating has never been higher, his three-point shooting has improved and he once again ranks second on the Bucks in win shares.
Even during the age of multi-positional stars, Antetokounmpo's jack-of-all-trades, master-of-some skill set just stands out. Humans aren't meant to have his combination of height, length, speed and composure. The way he moves, with controlled and explosive finesse, isn't natural.
Still only 21, his potential to lead any team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks is enough on its own to generate max-contract attention. But it's the returns he's yielding now, this season, that have left him a virtual lock.
Should his current rate of production stand, Antetokounmpo will be one of only four active players to average 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and one block per 36 minutes before his 22nd birthday.
DeMarcus Cousins, Tim Duncan and Paul Pierce are the other three.
Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors (2016, restricted)
This is going to make some of you uncomfortable.
Barnes is the fourth option on the Warriors, behind All-Stars Klay Thompson and Curry and better-be-an-All-Star-this-season Draymond Green. Fourth bananas aren't known for receiving max-money attention, and Barnes hasn't exactly proved indispensable to Golden State's interplanetary domination.
To wit: The Warriors are killing opponents when Barnes is on the floor, winning the hardwood battle by more than 17 points per 100 possessions. That, for the record, is absurd. But the Warriors maintain the equivalent of a league-best net rating when he's riding pine.
Why dole out max money to someone whose presence isn't crucial to your stock? Because the Warriors are that unbelievably, unconventionally, mind-numbingly good.
And because Barnes is not alone:
The above chart shows how many points better per 100 possessions the Warriors are than their opponent without each of their key players. The San Antonio Spurs are also included because they have the NBA's second-best rating, trailing only Golden State.
Only Curry's, Green's and Iguodala's absences prevent the Warriors from posting a league-best differential. So Barnes' value cannot be evaluated in those terms, and they know it. They offered him a four-year, $64 million extension back in September, which Barnes declined. The impending salary-cap eruption ensures he can grab much more on the open market.
Of the 75 players averaging 16 points and two assists per 36 minutes, Barnes has the lowest usage rate by far. And while he capitalizes on the attention Curry, Green and Thompson draw, he is more than just a spot-up shooter. He can create for himself on drives and with his back to the basket.
Imagine what he could accomplish as a focal point. Cap-rich teams in need of No. 1 or No. 2 options sure will, and at least one of them is going to dangle a max offer sheet in his face—unless, of course, Golden State beats them to it.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (2016, Restricted)
By electing to hold off on giving Beal an extension prior to this season's deadline, Washington guaranteed his max-contract status.
The intent attached to the Wizards' delay is mostly pure. They are heavily invested in a Durant pursuit, as Zach Lowe recently reiterated for ESPN.com, and need all the extra cash they can get. Beal's cap hit leading into free agency is now less than $14.8 million, as opposed to more than $20 million.
Interested parties will know their best chance at landing him lies in a max deal. Washington won't hesitate to match said contract if it signs Durant, but Beal's internal value changes drastically if the 2013-14 MVP heads elsewhere or prolongs his decision-making process. Beal has, after all, yet to prove he can be a No. 2 option on a legitimate conference contender.
Not that this will stop the offer sheets from rolling in. Beal is tallying 20 points per game with an above-average assist rate, and this marks the third straight season he's burying at least 40 percent of his long balls. Curry, Kyle Korver, Khris Middleton and Klay Thompson are the only other players with a similar streak.
Beal's mid-range attempts are also down from last season, and he's getting to the basket with more frequency—a shot distribution that's inching closer toward becoming an analytics dream:
Too many of Beal's looks are still coming from mid-range, so he remains a work in progress. The Wizards, already noticeably worse than last season, are even more of a statistical nightmare when Beal is on the floor.
Sharpshooting wings who can play on and off the ball while at times orchestrating the offense aren't available in excess, though. And for all its struggles this season, Washington showed last year that you can build a top-tier defense with Beal in the fold.
Max money, whether it's from the Wizards or from someone else, will find Beal this summer.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons (2016, Restricted)
Drummond isn't a Curry kind of sure thing, but he's still a sure thing.
Extension talks between him and the Detroit Pistons were tabled prior to the October deadline when Drummond saw the value in waiting. His cap hit will be significantly lower entering restricted free agency (around $8.2 million), freeing up Detroit to stage other pursuits before taking care of its own.
Such a chip only gets played if Drummond knows the Pistons are prepared to take care of him. And it's clear they are.
"Andre wants to be here long-term," team coach and president Stan Van Gundy said, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "He wants us to have the flexibility to continue to add people to this team. ... Every player says 'I'm all about winning.' This guy is proving it."
Bigs who can't space the floor—or, for that matter, shoot 40 percent from the free-throw line—aren't today's typical max-contract locks. Drummond also remains a post-up oaf. He doesn't even rank in the 25th percentile of back-to-the-basket efficiency and cannot consistently pass out of double-teams.
But Drummond is a devastating pick-and-roll slasher, and his shot-swatting is the anchor of a Detroit defense that pesters opponents with top-seven stinginess when he's on the floor:
| With Drummond | 99.9 | 4 |
| Without Drummond | 106.5 | 25 |
Toss in that Drummond is on his way toward becoming the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to average 18 points and 16 rebounds per 36 minutes, and his sure-thing status resonates more clearly.
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (2017, Restricted)
Ample time is spent comparing Gobert to Whiteside, in large part because both bigs used 2014-15 as their own personal breakout grounds. But Gobert—who is sidelined indefinitely with an MCL sprain, per a Jazz team announcement—is clearly the more valuable of the two.
There is no better rim protector in the NBA. Gobert is holding opponents to under 36 percent shooting at the iron, the best mark among all players to make at least five appearances and contest three point-blank looks per game.
And his success comes while challenging shots in volume. Gobert is facing around nine attempts at the basket per game. Five of the other top-10 rim protectors see fewer than four, and eight guard against six or less.
Gobert isn't just a threat near the hoop either. Utah lets him chase blocks, often funneling ball-handlers into the paint so he can work his voodoo, but he's quick enough on his feet to play perimeter defense.
Challenge him from anywhere inside the three-point line, and you're liable to miss:
Opponents only shoot at above-average clips against Gobert when they're firing away from outside 15 feet. Like Whiteside's Heat, the Jazz defense is faring better when their prized behemoth sits. But unlike Whiteside's Heat, they're better with him in the game overall.
Gobert's decision-making within pick-and-rolls does need work, and Utah's clunky offense sorely needs him to get comfortable outside 10 feet from the basket. And if he's not going incorporate a baby jumper into his offensive arsenal, his post-up game needs to, you know, actually exist. He looks super awkward when handling the ball with his back to the basket and commits turnovers with unreasonable frequency.
Nevertheless, Gobert's offensive limitations won't impede his max-contract candidacy. He has the makings of a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate/winner, and despite what some of the numbers say, he remains the lifeblood for one of the NBA's most formidable brick walls.
Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder (2017, Unrestricted)
Although it feels as if Ibaka has been in the NBA forever, he's still only 26 years old. And he will be just 27 when he reaches unrestricted free agency.
Durant and Russell Westbrook tend to overshadow Ibaka's individual value. They're that good. But Ibaka is also that good, as one of the few (albeit growing number of) bigs who can stroke threes and block shots.
He is averaging two send-backs per game while shooting at least 33 percent from distance (minimum 20 total attempts) for the fourth time of his career. No player has ever matched that output more than twice.
And yet Ibaka, still in the thick of his prime, is regularly reaching those mostly unprecedented benchmarks. He is the future of the NBA's frontcourt ranks, and if the Thunder don't give him max money in 2017, another team will.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate leading into games on Dec. 7. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
