SEC Championship 2015: Full Preview and Predictions for Florida vs. Alabama
A classic rivalry gets renewed on Saturday in the 2015 SEC Championship Game as the Florida Gators look to knock the Alabama Crimson Tide out of the playoff picture and capture their first conference title since 2008.
The Gators come into this weekend's clash on a down note after a 27-2 loss against Florida State. That game was problematic in more ways than one because Florida's offense since quarterback Will Grier was suspended has been erratic, at best.
Having an inconsistent offense is not conducive to success against the Crimson Tide, who are third in the nation with 14.3 points allowed per game. Alabama has not been tested against top-tier competition often this year, with just one win against a team currently ranked in the College Football Playoff Top 25.
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Both teams want to play hard, smashmouth football, so expecting a low-scoring affair between two of the nation's best defenses is a given. The winner will be the team that can find an opening, so let's look at what makes these two SEC powerhouses tick.
Florida's Game Plan
There is nothing sexy about what the Gators want to do. The offense is not dynamic, though it doesn't need to be. Head coach Jim McElwain has found a formula that works for his team, even if it isn't always appealing to the eye.
| 214.9 | 137.0 | 353.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 |
| 74th | 104th | 101st | 97th | T-75th |
Quarterback Treon Harris is a huge question mark. The sophomore is completing just 53.7 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns and four interceptions. His legs aren't bringing much to the table with just 193 yards on 73 carries.
In other words, opposing defenses know they can load the box with as many defenders as they want because Kelvin Taylor is going to get the ball a lot. He's currently riding a three-game streak with at least 20 carries and 100 yards.
Taylor does understand what he's going up against on Saturday, per Robbie Andreu of the Gainesville Sun:
There's absolutely no one who believes Florida is going to win this game, with Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead stating why:
Because the Gators have to rely on the running game and defense to win, field position is going to be critical for them. That means Harris has to be smart with the ball when he throws, Taylor has to hit open holes as hard as he possibly can and special teams will be vital.
Both teams are evenly matched in the punting game. Florida's Johnny Townsend averages 44.2 yards per attempt; Alabama's JK Scott averages 43.4 yards per kick.
When Alabama does have the ball, Derrick Henry is going to get fed a lot. He had 295 carries in the regular season, including 46 in the finale against Auburn. Florida's front seven has to be on point and ready to tackle.
Jonathan Bullard, Jarrad Davis and Antonio Morrison have been as good as any trio in the nation, combining for 36.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. That doesn't even include Florida sack leader Alex McCalister (6.5), so McElwain has weapons to match up against Bama's offensive line.
And while Alabama's offensive line does get lauded for being among the best in the nation, including being named a finalist for the Joe Moore Award, it hasn't been perfect. It ranks 80th in tackles allowed for loss, so there will be chances for Florida's monsters up front.
Shutting down Henry enables the Gators to have arguably the nation's best defensive back, Vernon Hargreaves, an opening to take chances when Jake Coker targets Calvin Ridley on the outside.
Ball control and time of possession are Florida's best shot. If Alabama scores 20, the game is over because Florida needed overtime to hit that mark against Florida Atlantic.
Alabama's Game Plan
Is it fair to say just show up? That's too dismissive of Florida's talent, but Alabama would probably find a way to win this game if it was only allowed to play defense against the Gators' offense.
These two teams do share some common opponents this season, with Florida actually having a bigger point differential, per NFL.com's Gil Brandt:
Florida has a 28-point win over Mississippi, which is the only team so far that has defeated Alabama. The big caveat there is Florida's victory happened when Grier, who went 24-of-29 with 271 yards and four touchdowns, was still under center.
Henry is a one-man wrecking crew for Alabama right now, doing more on his own than Auburn's entire offense in last week's Iron Bowl, per the SEC Network:
Alabama's offense isn't as explosive as it was last year when Amari Cooper was shattering SEC receiving records. But it is better suited to the style of football Nick Saban wants to play.
The Crimson Tide have increased their average time of possession by more than three percent over last year, per TeamRankings.com.
That comes out to just under two minutes of game time that the defense doesn't have to be on the field or nearly two more minutes the opposing defense has to try slowing down Henry.
It should come as no surprise, then, that Henry is a monster in the second half, per Garry Smits of the Florida Times-Union:
"It’s in the last four SEC games that Henry has been an unstoppable force. He’s gained 495 yards in the second halves against Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn, and in each game had more yards after halftime than in the first half. ... Henry has converted third downs on 12 of 15 second-half attempts this season and on his last eight carries. Consider this jarring statistic: Henry’s 874 yards in the second half of games this season (with a 6.7 per-carry average) would be 10th in the SEC.
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The second half is when Henry makes his money, or wins his Heisman, to use a more appropriate NCAA analogy.
Coker isn't the dynamic quarterback Blake Sims was last year, but he does exactly what Saban wants. The senior doesn't make mistakes, throwing just four interceptions in the last eight games, and completes a high percentage of his passes.
Saban's defense has risen to the occasion against high-caliber running backs this season. LSU star Leonard Fournette had a season-low 31 yards on 19 carries on Nov. 7.
Taylor isn't on Fournette's level, so good luck trying to find enough space that will allow him to get any meaningful yards. And knowing that Taylor is Florida's only offensive weapon at this juncture due to the Gators' quarterback play, Alabama will force Harris to make throws against the secondary to prove he can do it.
The formula hasn't worked really well for Florida since Harris' first start against LSU, so the Crimson Tide are going to exploit him early and often.
Final Prediction
The College Football Playoff would turn into a chaotic mess if Florida found a way to win this game. It's not going to happen, but that does make for an interesting subplot.
Alabama doesn't have the overall resume it is accustomed to because its nonconference schedule wasn't very good outside of Wisconsin, and the SEC had a down season. The Crimson Tide will get their chance to prove how good they are in the playoff because they will destroy an overmatched Florida team.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Florida 10
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