Military Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Navy vs. Pittsburgh
A pair of teams that had breakthrough seasons in 2015 will hope to end on a high note when Pittsburgh and Navy meet in the Military Bowl.
The matchup will be an unofficial home game for Navy (9-2), as it will be played on the Midshipmen's home field in Annapolis, Maryland. They went 6-0 this season at home, winning by an average of 25.7 points en route to finishing second in the American Athletic Conference's West Division.
Pittsburgh (8-4) has its most regular-season wins since 2010, the season that started a trend of coaching turnover. First-year head coach Pat Narduzzi is the Panthers' eighth coach, including interim leaders, in the last six years.
The teams last met in 2013, with Navy claiming a 24-21 home win on a 30-yard field goal as time expired. This will be their 40th all-time meeting, with Pitt holding a 22-14-3 edge in the series.
Follow along as we run down everything you need to know about the Military Bowl along with a prediction of who should come out on top.
Date: Monday, Dec. 28
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Place: Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland
TV: ESPN
Keys to Victory for Navy
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Stick to the basics
Navy ranks second in FBS in rushing offense, its triple-option attack generating 330.1 yards per game with 46 rushing touchdowns. It's a system the Midshipmen have used to great success for years, averaging better than 300 yards per game in four of the past five seasons.
The Midshipmen have scored at least three times on the ground every game this year, including in a loss at Notre Dame, when they ran for 318 yards on 49 carries.
There are two main runners who get the bulk of the carries, with quarterback Keenan Reynolds rushing 220 times and fullback Chris Swain getting the call 169 times.
Don't fall behind
As good as Navy is at running the ball, the same can't be said for when it has to take to the air. Though Reynolds threw for 312 yards in the last game, at Houston, that came in a 52-31 loss when the Midshipmen were playing from behind almost the entire afternoon.
For the season, Navy has 994 passing yards and seven touchdown passes, with Reynolds and backup QB Tago Smith only completing 53.3 percent of their throws.
Keys to Victory for Pittsburgh
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Assignment football
Defending the triple-option is extremely tough in a live-game situation and just as tough to practice without having scout-team players who understand its nuances. It's not impossible, though, as long as every player on defense understands his individual role.
Because Navy will have several choices for whom to hand the ball of to—and it might on occasion drop back to pass—each Pitt defender will have a specific assignment to handle. That could mean following the pitch man or staying on the edge to guard against the quarterback keeping it. The key is for everyone to stay on his mission and not try to freelance.
Get the ball to Boyd
Pittsburgh averages fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and when it does throw the ball, there aren't many options. There's basically wide receiver Tyler Boyd, and that's it.
Yet despite opponents knowing full well whom the Panthers are going to target, they haven't done a good job of stopping Boyd. The junior has 85 of Pitt's 199 receptions despite missing the first game of the season. He has caught at least 10 passes five times in 2015 and eight times in his career.
Players to Watch for Navy
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Keenan Reynolds
Not since Roger Staubach has Navy had a quarterback as good as Reynolds, who will go down in history as the most prolific rusher in FBS history in terms of touchdowns.
The senior has scored 83 rushing TDs in four seasons, including 19 this year, which is the all-time record. He's also tied with Louisiana Tech's Kenneth Dixon and former Wisconsin star Montee Ball for the all-time mark of total TDs scored at 83.
Reynolds has run for 4,279 yards in his career, which is 216 behind ex-Michigan star Denard Robinson for the most ever by a quarterback.
Will Anthony
A participant in all 50 games Navy has played the past four seasons, Anthony has risen from a special teams player to a two-year starter at defensive end. He anchored the right side in 2014 and moved to the left side this season.
The 6'1”, 254-pound senior has a career-high 6.5 sacks with 10.5 tackles for loss this season, and he's also forced three fumbles.
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Players to Watch for Pittsburgh
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Tyler Boyd
The 6'2” junior figures to be one of the first receivers taken in the 2016 NFL draft if he chooses to turn pro. He's Pittsburgh's career leader in receptions (248) and yards (3,308), and his 21 touchdowns are fourth-most in school history.
Boyd, who missed Pitt's first game in 2015 after being suspended for an offseason DUI citation, has more catches this year (85) than his team's next five receivers. His 873 yards are more than the second- and third-leading receivers combined.
Ejuan Price
The 6'0”, 250-pound senior defensive end has missed two full seasons because of injury, including last year when he sat out after needing surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle. At full strength for the first time since 2011, Price has erupted to record an ACC-best 11.5 sacks along with 19.5 tackles for loss.
Price had five sacks in a November win against Louisville, and in October he returned a fumble 32 yards for a touchdown against Notre Dame.
What They're Saying
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Not much prep time
Even though Navy moved into the American Athletic Conference this season, the longtime independent program had previously arranged to play in the Military Bowl in 2015 if it reached bowl eligibility. When it looked like the Midshipmen had a shot at landing a spot in a New Year's Six-affiliated game, though, their spot in the Military Bowl would have gone to another AAC team.
Now that the matchup is set, though, it means Navy won't have nearly as much time to prepare for Pittsburgh as the Panthers will for it. That's because Navy still has its annual rivalry game with Army set for Saturday in Philadelphia. The Military Bowl is 16 days later, while Pitt will have had 22 days to get ready.
“Our players are excited about the opportunity to play one last game in what is hallowed ground at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium,” Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said, per the school's website. “The 32 seniors that will be playing their last football game for Navy deserve to play in front of a full house at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium one final time.”
Not too far to go
Despite facing a team on its home field, Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi doesn't seem too concerned about his opponent having any sort of added advantage than it would on a neutral field. If anything, he's glad the Panthers only have to travel about 270 miles for the game.
“Given our proximity to Annapolis, we are looking for a great contingent of Pitt fans to make the short trek and see us play one more time this year,” Narduzzi said, per Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Prediction
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Both Pittsburgh and Navy exceeded expectations this season to each finish second in their respective divisions. Claiming one last victory will make the year even more of a success.
Each school faced a tough schedule in 2015, with three of Pitt's losses coming to Iowa, North Carolina and Notre Dame (by a combined 22 points) and Navy's losses coming against Notre Dame and American Athletic Conference champ Houston. They're both battle-tested, so one more tough assignment won't be an issue.
This game will come down to pace and momentum, as both teams like to control the clock. Pitt ranks 15th nationally in time of possession, while Navy is 20th.
Navy has the edge thanks to its dominance as a run team as well as playing at home. Pitt might have more balance, but its offensive weapons aren't explosive ones who can keep pace with the Midshipmen.
Prediction: Navy 29, Pittsburgh 21
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