Cotton Bowl Classic 2015: Preview, Predictions for Alabama vs. Michigan State
The Cotton Bowl is one of the oldest bowl games in college football history, with this year's edition the 80th in its storied history. But not since the 1990s has it had an impact on the national title picture, as this time around it will serve as one of the sites for the College Football Playoff semifinals.
No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Michigan State will face off in AT&T Stadium, with the winner moving on to the CFP National Championship Game on Jan. 11 in Glendale, Arizona.
Alabama is coming off a dominant 29-15 win over Florida in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, a game that saw Derrick Henry rush for 189 yards en route to becoming the SEC's single-season rushing leader. This will mark the second year in a row the Crimson Tide are in the playoff, the only repeat entrant in this new system.
Michigan State's route to the playoff, at least on Saturday, was far more treacherous. The Spartans needed to put together an epic 22-play drive in the Big Ten Championship Game that lasted more than nine minutes, scoring on LJ Scott's one-yard touchdown run with 27 seconds left, to beat Iowa 16-13.
This will be the first meeting between the schools since the 2011 Capital One Bowl, when Alabama rolled to a 49-7 win against Michigan State. That's the only time MSU head coach Mark Dantonio has faced his former boss, Nick Saban, who originally hired him as an assistant in 1995 in East Lansing. Saban was the Spartans head coach from 1995-99, winning 34 games with Dantonio as his defensive backs coach.
We've put together a rundown of everything you'll need to know about this playoff matchup, starting with the nuts and bolts and then getting into greater detail. Follow along and then give us your thoughts in the comments section.
Date: Thursday, Dec. 31
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Place: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: ESPN
Spread: Alabama -9.5 (per OddsShark.com)
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7If there's anything you can glean from the above infographic, it's that both Alabama and Michigan State are used to being the dominant team when on the field. Each tends to outscore and outgain its opponent, taking the ball away more and holding onto it better than the foe.
A key to the Cotton Bowl will be which squad is able to break through against the other team's defense, as both are among the top 30 nationally in yards allowed per game.
Keys to Victory for Alabama
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Feed the beast
Alabama's offense has been known in most years for being balanced, a mix of running and passing the ball and spreading the touches around. But running back Derrick Henry has made it clear that the Crimson Tide's best option is to hand him the ball and let the 6'3", 242-pound junior rumble.
Henry is the SEC's single-season rushing leader, going for 1,986 yards with 23 touchdowns this year. That includes 460 yards on a whopping 90 carries the past two games, with 44 runs in Saturday's SEC title game.
With 339 carries this season, Henry has run the ball 20 more times than the next player.
Go deep when it's there
Quarterback Jake Coker only averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt, but when the opportunity presents itself to sling the ball down the field, he's had success. And he could get more of those chances against Michigan State, particularly if the Spartans are stacking the box to slow down Henry.
The Spartans have allowed 122 passes of 10 or more yards and 48 that went for at least 20 yards. Both of those figures rank near the bottom in the FBS, the result of MSU's youth and lack of depth in the secondary. In the Big Ten title game, Iowa scored its lone touchdown on an 85-yard pass when its receiver was easily able to get behind the defense.
Take care of the ball
Look back on Alabama's lone defeat in 2015 and you'll see where things went wrong. The 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss saw the Crimson Tide turn the ball over five times, the most in a game since the 2014 Sugar Bowl.
After that loss, Alabama had a minus-two turnover margin. Now it sits at plus-seven, having given the ball away only 10 times in the last 10 games, with just five in the last seven contests.
Michigan State, at plus-16, is tied for third nationally in turnover margin.
Keys to Victory for Michigan State
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Stop the runaway train
Michigan State ranks seventh in the FBS in run defense, allowing 113.1 yards per game, and along the way, it's slowed down some potent rushers. But none of those previous opponents had someone like Alabama's Derrick Henry, who leads the nation with 1,986 yards and averages better than six yards per carry.
The Spartans have held six of their last eight opponents to less than four yards per carry on the ground, but 12 of the 24 rushing touchdowns scored against them have come in the fourth quarter.
Get Connor Cook healthy
Now 34-4 as a starting quarterback, Connor Cook has had few more difficult games at Michigan State than the last ones. Not just because of the competition but also because of the pain he's been feeling in his right (throwing) shoulder, an injury that caused him to miss a game-and-a-half in November and was re-aggravated in the Big Ten title game against Iowa.
Cook completed 16 of 32 passes for 191 yards with an interception against Iowa, but he hardly threw the ball late. On MSU's game-winning 22-play drive, he attempted only five passes and none in the final 12 snaps. However, he did put his shoulder in harm's way by keeping the ball on a 4th-and-2 at the 5-yard line for a critical first down.
Without Cook, MSU was able to win at Ohio State on Nov. 21. It doesn't want to have to deal with that scenario again.
Keep it close
For a team that's had as successful a season as Michigan State, it's played quite a few close games and not just against the better opponents. Seven of its 13 games have been decided by seven or fewer points, including the 39-38 loss at Nebraska.
In its biggest victories—at Michigan and Ohio State and against Iowa—the Spartans trailed in the fourth quarter. But by keeping the deficit small, they've stayed in position to win late, resulting in the go-ahead score against Iowa with 27 seconds left and wins over Michigan and OSU with no time left on the clock.
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Players to Watch for Alabama
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Derrick Henry
The most prolific rusher in SEC history has also become the most-used weapon in the country down the stretch. Not just as the season has gone on but in the late stages of games, when Alabama smartly protects its leads by going to the big, dependable running back.
"Derrick Henry ran for 1,003 yards this year...after halftime," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee tweeted.
Of Henry's 339 carries this season, 85 have come in the fourth quarter. He's averaged 6.13 yards per carry with 24 first downs when given the ball in the final period.
Jake Coker
A highly regarded transfer when he came over from Florida State before the 2014 season, Coker wasn't able to beat out Blake Sims last year and only saw action in six games. He won the quarterback competition this fall, and while his numbers haven't been anywhere close to Sims', he's done nearly everything asked of him.
Coker has completed 65.7 percent of his passes, throwing 17 touchdowns with eight interceptions. His last pick came on Nov. 14.
Cyrus Jones
Used as a running back, receiver and defensive back throughout his Alabama career, Jones has found a niche in his senior season as the most dangerous punt returner the school has had in some time.
His three touchdowns are the most in the country, with his first coming against Mississippi State on Nov. 14, a 69-yard TD that broke a scoreless tie in the second quarter.
Players to Watch for Michigan State
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Connor Cook
Michigan State has had a great run of quarterbacks over the past 15 years, with several ending up in the NFL. Cook figures to join that group in the spring, projected by many (including WalterFootball.com) as a first-round draft pick.
But where Cook stands out from his predecessors is how his performance has translated into team success. The fifth-year senior has a 34-4 record as a starter, and Michigan State has won at least 11 games in all three seasons with Cook at the helm.
Aaron Burbridge
The top receiver in the Big Ten by a wide margin, Burbridge made a big leap this season as a senior. He has 80 receptions for 1,219 and seven touchdowns, compared to 80 catches and three TDs in his first three years combined.
The 6'1" Burbridge had more receptions and yards than any other two Spartans players. His rise helped fill the void left by the graduation of Michigan State's top two wideouts from 2014, Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery.
Shilique Calhoun
Calhoun first made a name for himself two years ago as a sophomore on Michigan State's defensive line, and he's just gotten better over time. Now a senior, the 6'5", 250-pound defensive end is having his best year yet, capped by a huge performance against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.
This season Calhoun has 10.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss, nabbing two sacks against Iowa along with a forced fumble. For his career, Calhoun has 27 sacks and 43.5 TFLs.
What They're Saying
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Second time around
Alabama has been here before, the only team that is appearing in the playoff for a second straight season. Head coach Nick Saban said on ESPN's playoff reveal broadcast on Sunday that he expects his team to be better prepared than in January, when it lost to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
"The whole idea of a playoff game and a bowl game being together was sort of a new recipe," Saban said.
Dance with the girl that brung ya
Saban said on ESPN that as much as he would have loved to rest workhorse running back Derrick Henry late in the SEC Championship Game, it just wasn't possible. And after seeing how he produced, he couldn't help but keep feeding him.
"I was happy to see him go back in, and then he made me happy by the way he ran," Saban said. "How do you not play the guy? I was happy watching him running the ball 14 times in a row against Auburn. He gets better as he goes. He does make me happy."
A familiar matchup
Though Alabama and Michigan State have not played since 2011, it might feel like the teams are mirror images of each other when they line up on Dec. 31. That's because the coaches have a long history together, dating back to when MSU head coach Mark Dantonio was an assistant on Saban's Spartans teams from 1995-99.
"There's a lot of similarities in the things we've done here, or tried to do, that he's done," Dantonio said on ESPN of Alabama and Saban. "They're going to be very well-coached; they're going to be disciplined."
Both coaches claim they haven't watched much of what the other team has done this season, though Saban is well aware of the 22-play drive MSU used to win the Big Ten title.
"That was enough for me to see in terms of the competitive spirit that team had to come through when it was needed most," Saban said. "We know what kind of physical, tough teams they have at Michigan State."
Prediction
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It's the cream of the crop from the SEC, perennially considered the best conference in college football, against the winner of arguably the toughest league in the country in 2015. When Alabama and Michigan State line up on New Year's Eve, it's going to be as close to an old-school game as we've seen in a championship atmosphere in a long time.
And like it's been for each team throughout this season, it will come down to the fourth quarter.
Michigan State somehow won at Michigan and Ohio State without ever leading with time on the clock, and it almost did the same by scoring with 27 seconds left to beat Iowa for the Big Ten title. That speaks to the Spartans' drive and determination but also means they've struggled to assert themselves earlier in the game.
That hasn't been the case with Alabama, which since losing to Ole Miss has more or less dominated the last 10 opponents. Only once, against Tennessee, did the Crimson Tide trail in the fourth quarter; most of the time, they were pulling away in that final period.
All that could get in Alabama's way is complacency, but after losing to Ohio State last year, it doesn't want to make the same mistake again. Michigan State has had to use every ounce of itself to win its biggest games, but the tank will not have enough for one more late push.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Michigan State 17
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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