College Football Playoff 2015: Latest Rankings and Standings Entering Week 14
Conference championship week is upon us, and Tuesday's release of the College Football Playoff rankings gives us a clearer picture of which teams are in the driver's seat to end up in the Top Four.
Obviously nothing is guaranteed for this weekend's winners, as the committee could change its mind for any number of reasons. But the current rankings appear to put eight teams in contention: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Stanford and North Carolina.
Trying to figure out who will end up where is a tough task requiring a lot of guesswork, but let's take a stab at it.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Below are the updated rankings, followed by projected playoff scenarios for the contenders in each conference.
ACC
Clemson has a very simple win-and-you're-in scenario. The only undefeated Power Five conference champion will be in the playoffs as the No. 1 seed.
If Clemson loses to North Carolina, however, chaos ensues.
Since only four conference champions can get into the playoffs, a victory over the Tigers does not guarantee North Carolina a spot in the playoffs.
The Tar Heels enter the final week of the season at No. 10 in the CFP rankings, three spots behind Stanford, which also has a chance to win its conference.
As a result of Stanford's placement ahead of North Carolina, a Cardinal win would appear to eliminate the Tar Heels—regardless of the ACC title-game outcome.
If Stanford loses, however, the Tar Heels would still be in the conversation, along with Ohio State.
Big Ten
Michigan State and Iowa play in a de facto national quarterfinal game, with the winner virtually guaranteed to finish no lower than No. 4 in the final rankings.
But since the conference currently occupies the fourth, fifth and sixth spots in the rankings, the possibility is out there for the conference to end up with two teams in the playoffs. Ohio State, currently sixth, is the highest-ranked team without the possibility of a conference championship and appears to be the only non-champion with the opportunity to sneak into the playoffs.
The most likely scenario in which Ohio State could join the conversation would be for North Carolina to knock off Clemson.
If North Carolina wins, the committee would need to decide between the ACC champion Tar Heels, the potential two-loss Pac-12 champion Stanford Cardinal and one-loss Ohio State.
If Stanford loses to USC in the Pac-12 title game, that debate likely gets swung even further in the Buckeyes' favor. While North Carolina would have the advantage of being a conference champion, would the committee move them from No. 10 all the way to No. 4 after just one victory?
As Columbus Dispatch writer Bill Rabinowitz points out, CFP committee leader Jeff Long has stated that Ohio State's strength of schedule has them well ahead of North Carolina:
"Long said the CFP committee does not use Sagarin in its data. Said #OhioState's strength of schedule is clearly superior to North Carolina's
— Bill Rabinowitz (@brdispatch) December 2, 2015"
Of course, there's also the unlikely possibility that Alabama loses to Florida in the SEC title game.
If Alabama, Stanford and North Carolina all lose (an unlikely but possible scenario), Ohio State would appear to be the only logical selection remaining for the committee to place at No. 4, joining Clemson, Oklahoma and the Big Ten champ.
Big 12
While the Big 12 regular season continues for some teams on Saturday, Oklahoma is already in the clubhouse as the undisputed conference champs and are sitting at No. 3 in the current rankings.
It's possible (maybe even likely) that the Big Ten champion jumps the Sooners in the rankings by adding one more quality victory to its resume. However, it's difficult to envision a scenario in which one of the other contenders (Ohio State, Stanford or North Carolina) would rise high enough to knock Oklahoma from the playoffs.
It's true, the committee did drop TCU from No. 3 to No. 6 in the final poll a season ago, but that was under much different circumstances.
Due to the Big 12 tiebreakers, Baylor actually clinched the conference title in the final week of the season, forcing the committee to elevate the Bears above the Horned Frogs. Having already wrapped up the conference, Oklahoma does not need to worry about history repeating itself.
Pac-12
Stanford is the only Pac-12 team in the conversation, and the conference could potentially be eliminated entirely if USC upsets the Cardinal in the conference title game.
Sitting at No. 7 in this week's rankings, Stanford needs some help, even if it wins on Saturday.
Assuming the Cardinal win, they will likely jump No. 6 Ohio State and the loser of the Big Ten title game due to the fact that they will be a conference champion. But jumping those two teams only places Stanford at No. 5.
So to have a shot at reaching the playoffs, Stanford fans should be rooting for North Carolina to upset Clemson and/or Florida to pull a shocker and take down Alabama.
SEC
The SEC has the most simplistic playoff scenario of the Power Five conferences.
If Alabama wins, they're in. If Florida wins, the SEC gets left out in the cold.
In most years, the SEC champion—even a two-loss champ, as Florida would be—will get into the playoffs, but Florida would be the worst SEC champion we've seen in well over a decade.
The committee dropped Florida in the rankings after a close call against Florida Atlantic, and then dropped the Gators all the way to No. 18 after their embarrassing 27-2 loss to rival Florida State.
It's safe to say Alabama is the SEC's last shot at reclaiming the national championship trophy.
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