The 5 Most Telling Stats for the Tennessee Volunteers This Season
Before we parachute down into the statistical stratosphere, where numbers rule and can be manipulated to tell various stories depending on your viewpoints, remember that only two of those figures really matter for the Tennessee Volunteers this year.
That would be eight and 25, as in the number of wins for the Vols in coach Butch Jones' third season—a tangible, definitive step forward for the program—and a ranking of 25th in the College Football Playoff, which is a nice little recruiting tool to show progress to prospects.
Both of those numbers will probably make Tennessee fans everywhere smile, albeit wanly.
Sure, winning more games than the team has in the past eight years (since going 10-4 in 2007) is great. But, oh, what might have been, right?
It's going to be forever impossible to think back on 2015 without the asterisk that accompanies last-quarter blown games against Oklahoma and especially Florida, which would have catapulted the Vols into the SEC Championship Game.
Even UT's players can't quite shake those thoughts that include a 4th-and-14 conversion by the Gators, a shocking, final-dagger touchdown by Antonio Callaway and a Joshua Dobbs overtime interception against the Sooners.
"If we would have finished those games out earlier, it might have been a different season," junior outside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin said after the Vanderbilt game last Saturday. "But we try not to focus on that, finish with eight wins, and it's the first time we've done that in a long time. Going for No. 9 next."
There's a whole lot to be excited about on Rocky Top. That goes for now as well as the future. Jones appears to be building a program on sturdy footing for the next few years. But, for now, the focus remains on the past season.
So, let's examine some stats that tell the narrative of the year.
2,682 Rushing Yards
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If you want to talk about a statistic that seemingly came out of nowhere, look no further than Tennessee's rushing prowess in 2015.
Not only was it good, but it was historically good in terms of a UT program that has built much of its winning reputation via a strong ground game.
After torching Vanderbilt for 331 rushing yards, Tennessee now has tallied 2,682 rushing yards so far this season, which is the most since 1989 when the Vols ran roughshod over the SEC to the tune of 2,701 yards.
If the Vols can gain 19 yards and eclipse that mark in the bowl game, they'll finish with the best single-season team rushing mark since they set a school record in the national championship season of 1951 with 3,068 yards.
In quotes supplied by the university during his press conference Tuesday, coach Butch Jones discussed Tennessee's run-game dominance, particularly against Vanderbilt.
"We don't want to dibble and dabble in things. We don't want a designer offense. We want to own something and each game is a game of matchups. Is this a better team to run zone against? Is this a better team to gap schemes against. Do you need a double-team at the point of attack? All of those things are matchups and so the counter game obviously was very, very effective for us and our players did a great job of really executing it at the point of attack, our pullers and then our backs getting the ball north and south and our quarterback getting the ball north and south as well. That was a defense that was only giving up 18 points a game. We felt we needed to get the ball north and south on them.
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The Vols were able to churn out yards all season on the ground, and it led to a crazy turnaround. Last year, UT finished 13th in the league in rushing offense with an average of 146.4 per game (1,903 yards). This season, the Vols were second in the league behind LSU.
Several factors contributed. First, it's hard not to give credit to offensive coordinator Mike DeBord, who was determined to run the football and did all year long, almost to a fault at times.
Second, it helps to have two freakish talents at running back, and Tennessee does with brawny sophomore Jalen Hurd and electrifying classmate Alvin Kamara. Also, quarterback Joshua Dobbs' ability to be dynamic while running the ball puts a ton of pressure on defenses.
Offensive tackle Kyler Kerbyson referred to Hurd, Kamara and Dobbs as a "three-headed monster" after the Vandy win.
Finally, the biggest difference in UT's offense from last season to this one is the growth of the offensive line.
DeBord really helped with that unit ever since he came in, and no matter the injuries the Vols faced—losing starters Marcus Jackson and Brett Kendrick for the season, as well as Jashon Robertson, Dylan Wiesman and others for spurts—they always had players step up.
The running game is the biggest reason for Tennessee's success this year.
The 13-Point Nightmare
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Thirteen is perceived by superstitious folk to be an unlucky number.
Tennessee fans may want to start avoiding black cats as they run in front of their cars or refraining from walking under ladders or breaking mirrors after this season, because the old adage about the bad luck rang true for the Vols.
UT led every one of the season's first five games by at least 13 points; the Vols' record at the end of that stretch was 2-3. For perspective, the five other programs that led by at least that many over the same span went 20-0.
Coaching gaffes, conservative play-calling, time mismanagement, big plays allowed and point-addition snafus all became popular picking points for the national media, who swooped in on Knoxville with finger-pointing and name-calling.
The choke jobs against Oklahoma (17-3 lead in the fourth quarter), Florida (27-14 lead in the fourth quarter) and Arkansas (14-0 lead in the first half) led to stories such as SBNation's Rodger Sherman calling the Vols the "world's greatest team at blowing big leads."
For all the excellent work coach Butch Jones and his staff did to rally the team and get back to a solid 8-4 season, we cannot gloss over the blunders.
They're the black cloud that stands between the comfortable state of steady improvement and the promised land of the SEC Championship Game and a shot at the playoffs. Don't laugh. All that was attainable.
All that stood between UT and another shot at Alabama in Atlanta was the Florida loss, and Jones inexplicably elected to have Aaron Medley kick an extra point to go ahead by 13 points (there's that number again) in the fourth quarter. The Gators scored two touchdowns, kicked two extra points and won.
There's nothing wrong with Tennessee's 2015 season—except it should have been even better.
Six Special Teams Touchdowns
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Everybody wants to point to the six kick-game touchdowns that led the nation, and that's a remarkable statistic, but it's only the beginning of Tennessee's special teams magnificence this year.
Simply put: The Vols have the best special teams in the country.
To start, sophomore Evan Berry is a special talent who leads the nation with a 38.3 kickoff-return average and is tied for the national lead with three return touchdowns.
With his punt return for a score Saturday against Vanderbilt (his second in as many seasons against the Commodores), junior Cameron Sutton moved into the national lead with 467 return yards. He's second in average behind only Texas A&M's Christian Kirk, and Sutton has 11 more returns.
When he got his opportunities this year, Alvin Kamara was strong too, even taking one to the house against Western Carolina.
The coverage units have been strong as well. The Vols rank 15th nationally in kickoff-return defense, allowing just 18.2 yards per return, according to official NCAA statistics.
Punter Trevor Daniel is seventh nationally with a 45.6 yards-per-punt average, and there were several games this year where he was UT's biggest weapon and deserved strong consideration for the team MVP.
Though kicker Aaron Medley had a forgettable game against Alabama, he rebounded strong. He's made 20 of 29 field goals on the season.
The Vols haven't just won games with offensive prowess—they've stressed special teams, which would make legendary UT coaches such as Gen. Robert Neyland and Johnny Majors proud. That kind of football hearkens back to the glory years of the Vols, and it has been a major catalyst for Tennessee in 2015.
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45.6 Percent on 3rd Down
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Good running teams normally control the clock, control the flow of the game and, therefore, control the games.
That's certainly been the case for the Vols this year, as they've consistently shown a propensity to get themselves in 3rd-and-manageable situations and convert those to stay on the field and keep opposing offenses from taking shots at the susceptible, injury-riddled defense.
Because of that, the Vols should be commended for their ability to sustain drives. The proof is in the numbers. For the year, UT is second in the SEC (behind the power-running Arkansas Razorbacks) in third-down conversion percentage, being successful more than 45 percent of the time.
Not only that, but the Vols also are first in the SEC in fourth-down conversions, converting 78.6 percent of the time (an 11-of-14 clip).
Here's yet another spot where there's no other way to describe it other than saying Tennessee's offensive line deserves a ton of credit. This may as well be a subsection of the running prowess discussed earlier in this column.
Again, it's just an immense change from a season ago when UT was 11th in the league, converting third downs at a sputtering 38.9 percent.
"This year we're definitely a better offensive line than we were in years past," senior offensive tackle Kyler Kerbyson said before the Missouri game, according to FoxSports.com. "We are more in sync and we know what we are doing. We aren't as inexperienced as we were last year."
Tennessee's offense was far from perfect, struggling at times in the passing game and failing to convert red-zone opportunities into touchdowns more than the Vols would like, but it was drastically improved from a season ago.
It was an odd dynamic for the Vols, who love to run tempo and predicate their entire offensive philosophy on speed. But, this year, they churned out yards a little at a time, finding success on the ground and methodically wearing down opponents.
53 Percent (Quarterback Joshua Dobbs' Completion Percentage in Losses)
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Tennessee junior quarterback Joshua Dobbs may be the team's most valuable player for the way he can win games on the ground or through the air, freelances in the open field and pummels defenders when he is forced into the power-running game.
But that doesn't mean his season was perfect.
It's quite the contrary, actually.
There's no denying the signal-caller's inability to consistently throw the ball downfield. At times (such as against Oklahoma) it's been downright ugly. At other times, when Dobbs was made into a dropback passer who was no real threat to run (such as against Arkansas), he was ineffective.
The story has been the same for the Vols throughout the offseason and all through 2015. Unfortunately for the Vols, it'll remain that way leading into Dobbs' senior season: Can UT's quarterback pass the ball effectively enough to beat quality opponents in big games?
The questions remain after this regular season. Consider the stats:
- In Tennessee's four losses, Dobbs completed 56 of 106 passes (53 percent) for 611 yards (153 avg.), two touchdowns and one interception.
- In the Vols' eight wins, he completed 135 of 213 passes (63 percent) for 1,514 yards (189 avg.), 13 touchdowns and four interceptions.
How Dobbs goes, so goes Tennessee. To be totally fair to him, UT's receiving corps continued to struggle this season, though it was better than the past two years.
Dobbs hasn't been a turnover machine at all this year (though he did throw a game-ending pick in overtime against Oklahoma). If anything, he's been too reluctant at times to make crucial downfield passes in fear of making mistakes.
To his credit, that appears to have improved as the season has matured. Later in the year, he opened up the passing game and threw into a few tight windows and on the run more, and UT's passing game improved because of it.
He has all the tools. There's nothing wrong with his arm strength; he's throwing better on the run than he has in his entire career, and he already has the elusive ability to put himself in a position to make all the passes.
Dobbs simply has to get better mechanically, improve his ball placement and throw his receivers open. It may just be the difference between UT being a good team and being a championship contender.
Can the Vols throw enough to win?
They have a firm foundation with all their running success, but improving the passing game moving forward is a necessity.
All stats gathered from CFBStats.com or UTSports.com unless otherwise noted. All quotes and information gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee lead writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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