ACC Championship 2015: North Carolina vs. Clemson Complete Game Preview
For the first time in a few seasons, the ACC will have a brand-new champion and a fresh name to place in the race for the national championship.
Undefeated and No. 1 Clemson knocked off defending conference champion Florida State earlier this season in Death Valley, and the Tigers are one win away from being firmly locked into the College Football Playoff. Head coach Dabo Swinney's team is led by Heisman contender Deshaun Watson at quarterback, and his elite defense can rely on the talents of stars such as Shaq Lawson and Mackensie Alexander.
No. 8 North Carolina will look to shock the college football world in its home state and prove it belongs in the national championship picture. Since losing to South Carolina in a bizarre Week 1 game, the Tar Heels have rattled off 11 impressive victories in a row thanks to their own dual-threat star in Marquise Williams, a highly explosive offense and a defense that has had an impressive turnaround under first-year coordinator Gene Chizik.
This prime-time matchup in Charlotte has everything you could ask for in a conference championship game—national-title stakes, high-powered offenses, playmaking defenses and two programs looking for more respect on the national stage.
Before we break down the matchup, here's all the basic info you need to know about the 2015 ACC Championship Game:
Date: Saturday
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
TV: ABC
Line: Clemson -5, according to Odds Shark
North Carolina Keys to Victory
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Get off to another quick start
North Carolina has done an excellent job this season of putting teams in early holes. Last weekend, the Tar Heels hung 35 points on NC State in the first quarter, and they put up 21 first-quarter points on rival Duke earlier in the month.
Teams that have played close with UNC this season—including South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech—all prevented that early surge. North Carolina needs to get its big-play offense humming early and punch Clemson in the mouth from the opening bell.
Run the dang ball
Clemson's defense is elite, but it's not without its flaws. Florida State, Syracuse and South Carolina all rushed for more than 180 yards on the Tigers, and they rank 88th nationally in allowing rushes of 20 or more yards, with 21.
North Carolina should look for ways to torment Clemson on the ground with the combination of quarterback Marquise Williams and running back Elijah Hood. Half of UNC's 36 rushing touchdowns this season have come in their last four games, so it should be ready to roll Saturday night.
Grab some takeaways
North Carolina is tied for 17th nationally in takeaways this season (24), and it will need to generate some more of those against a Clemson offense that has turned the ball over multiple times in eight of its 12 games this season.
As the underdog in this matchup, North Carolina needs to capitalize on any opportunity to flip momentum and get Deshaun Watson off the field. The Tar Heels have done a great job in recent weeks of forcing turnovers through the air, and they'd love nothing more to add a couple more against a Heisman-contending quarterback.
Clemson Keys to Victory
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Put together long, sustained drives
North Carolina's offense loves to operate at lightning-fast pace—the Tar Heels have the third-lowest time of possession of any FBS team this season, and they're still 11-1. Clemson's offense can help out its defense in a big way by consistently moving the chains and frustrating North Carolina with sustained drives.
Clemson's offense will want to play at its own pace, too, but this UNC offense has shown it's capable of scoring from anywhere on the field in a heartbeat. If the Tigers can keep the ball out of the Tar Heels' hands while still getting efficient offensive production, they'll be in fantastic shape.
Slow down the ground game
Part of the reason North Carolina is so successful on offense is that it can hit big plays through the air or on the ground. By taking one of those dimensions away, the Tigers will have a huge advantage in this one.
Clemson needs to tighten up its run defense and limit the Heels' explosiveness in that category. The Tigers pass defense has the best opponent completion percentage in all of college football, which plays a huge role in their overwhelming success on third downs. Clemson should look to force North Carolina into obvious passing situations, because...
Generate pressure on Williams
...the last time Marquise Williams was in Bank of America Stadium, he threw three interceptions on scoring situations in a 17-13 loss to South Carolina. Since then, Williams has only thrown five more picks, standing tall behind an offensive line that ranks eighth nationally in fewest sacks allowed (12).
But Clemson should be able to generate defensive pressure unlike anything North Carolina has faced this season. If Williams doesn't have all day to throw, he could get rattled and make some bad mistakes against this defense.
North Carolina Players to Watch
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RB Elijah Hood
Elijah Hood has been on a late-season tear for North Carolina, racking up 220 yards and two touchdowns in last weekend's win over NC State. Before that game—in which he averaged more than 10 yards per carry—Hood had rushed for 316 yards and six touchdowns in his previous three games.
Look for Hood to keep that momentum rolling against the Clemson defense, which has been prone to allowing big-time running plays this season.
QB Marquise Williams
North Carolina's dual-threat star has come a long way from his three-interception loss to South Carolina in the season opener. He's put up more than 300 yards of total offense in four different games this season and has averaged more than 10 yards per play in four additional contests.
He threw for 345 yards and four touchdowns against Clemson last season, but he was ultimately outgunned by Watson in a 50-35 loss. This year, he has a more successful defense alongside him and a chance at ending his prolific North Carolina career with a championship.
DB M.J. Stewart
M.J. Stewart has been a star this season for a North Carolina pass defense that jumped from 104th nationally in 2014 to 19th in 2015. He leads the team with four interceptions, twice as many as any other player, and is second in pass breakups.
This ball hawk will definitely be one to watch Saturday night for a North Carolina defense that has picked off 10 passes in its last six games.
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Clemson Players to Watch
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QB Deshaun Watson
Who else is there to lead off with on Clemson other than Deshaun Watson? The Heisman-contending quarterback is ninth nationally in total yards per game (331.6) among all players, and he's averaging three touchdowns per game for this Tiger offense.
Watson's gotten hot through the air at the perfect time, as he's thrown for more than 275 yards in six of his last seven games, including four different 300-yard efforts. On top of that, he's deadly accurate, completing 70 percent of his attempts in 2015.
WR Deon Cain
Artavis Scott might be the top receiver in terms of yardage for Clemson this season, but freshman Deon Cain is the one with the hot hands right now. Since sitting out the Miami blowout for what Swinney called an "attitude adjustment," per TigerNet, Cain has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games.
Cain excels at taking the top off defenses with pure speed, as he averages almost 18 yards per catch this season. He scored a 55-yard touchdown against South Carolina last week and will look to do more of the same against its northern neighbor.
DE Shaq Lawson
The unquestioned star of Clemson's ferocious defensive front, Shaq Lawson leads the entire country in tackles for loss this season with 20.5. He's come up big in huge games already this season, recording a season-high 3.5 takedowns behind the line of scrimmage against Notre Dame.
North Carolina's offensive line has been strong all season long, but slowing down Lawson and the rest of his Clemson teammates will be a brand-new challenge. He'll be tasked with attacking Marquise Williams from the first snap of the night.
What They're Saying
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All quotes are from the ACC Championship Game teleconferences.
North Carolina
Head coach Larry Fedora on facing Clemson:
"Well, I would say this will be the best defense we've faced this year, and this will be the best offense we've faced this year. So you know, for both sides of the ball we're going to have to play extremely well. There's a reason they're the No. 1 team in the country. I mean, they're ranked above everybody else because everybody feels like they're the best team in the country. So we understand that, and you know, we have to do a great job of preparing, and we're going to have to play an error-free game.
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Quarterback Marquise Williams on the matchup:
"That's just a challenge where we know if we can come out and execute and put up points, we know our offense is very successful and we've been doing some great things on the offensive side of the football. It doesn't go around just the offense. This is a team sport for us. We're good on special teams, we're good on offense, we're good on defense. Just having those three things is the best way to win football games.
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Linebacker Shakeel Rashad on defensive coordinator Gene Chizik's influence:
"I think from day one he's preached physicality. It's not like in past years we've gone out and decided that we were going to be a soft defense. But the way that we went about it this season is we preached physicality. He said the way we're going to do it is you practice what you preach or whatever the saying is. Basically we were going to go out and do it every day, and that's what we've done. We went out and did every day in practice all through camp and managed to do that throughout the season too. So we'll go out, we tackle, and we shed blocks and that's what we take in the games.
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Clemson
Head coach Dabo Swinney on what he sees out of North Carolina:
"I think the biggest thing is they just have not given up near the big plays. They gave up a lot of big plays last year. We had a bunch of big plays on them, and that's probably the biggest thing is they've been very sound in what they've done. I think he's really done a great job of just giving them the best chance each and every week to be successful. ... The immediate thing is they're very disciplined and sound and playing with good fundamentals, and they have not given up near the amount of big plays.
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Quarterback Deshaun Watson on Clemson's success this season:
"This team has been special. It's been exciting. What we've been through this season during the games and the adversity we've had and just everything we've been going through has been really fun. Everyone's been staying focused and on a mission and grinding each and every week. Just following Coach Swinney and all the coaching staff, and just been coming out special.
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Defensive end Shaq Lawson on North Carolina's big-play offense:
"I tell you, Florida State gave us a lot of big plays, but they are just different from North Carolina. They like to run the ball a lot, Florida State does. And North Carolina's just more passing-type but they also can run the ball too. So we've just got to be ready for a run and the pass against them because they're he a very talented offense, very good offense. Great quarterback they have and some great skill guys they have.
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Prediction
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Both Clemson and North Carolina have big-play offenses that have been on fire this season. They have excellent quarterbacks who can hurt opponents in a variety of ways, and the skill talent in this matchup is massively underrated from a national standpoint.
The winner of this game will be the one that gets the most out of its defense. Clemson has more of the talent on that side of the ball with a fierce front and a stingy secondary, but North Carolina's unit is much improved under Gene Chizik and can give problems to a Clemson team that gets loose with the ball at times.
I've been high on the Tar Heels for a while now, but this Clemson team just has the look of a complete contender. Swinney should have his team extra sharp for this matchup after a few close calls down the stretch.
Clemson's defense should be able to force North Carolina's big-play attack into some tougher situations where the Heels will have to settle for field goals. If Clemson can hold onto the ball, its offense should be able to turn more of those possessions into touchdowns.
This will be a fun one that goes down to the fourth quarter. In the end, Clemson should get the big stop and the crucial scoring drive in crunch time against a North Carolina team that will give the Tigers all they can handle.
Prediction: Clemson 38, North Carolina 30
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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