Big Ten Championship 2015: Michigan State vs. Iowa TV Info, Odds, Predictions
No game Saturday has higher stakes than the Big Ten championship. One of the Iowa Hawkeyes or Michigan State Spartans is a victory away from the College Football Playoff.
Of course, both Alabama and Clemson are playing for playoff berths as well, but the same can't be said of their opponents. North Carolina or Florida isn't necessarily guaranteed a top-four spot should either prevail this weekend. In addition, many expect the Crimson Tide and Tigers to prevail, somewhat limiting the anticipation.
Iowa sits fourth in the playoff rankings, while Michigan State is one place behind the Hawkeyes in fifth. Both teams have one foot in the semifinals. The loser could do much worse than making a New Year's Six bowl game, but nothing will replace the disappointment of getting so close to the playoff, only to fall short.
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What Saturday's title game will likely lack in aesthetic beauty, it will more than make up for in drama.
Big Ten Championship Info
| Saturday, Dec. 5 | 8 p.m. | Michigan State (-4) | Fox | Fox Sports Go |
Preview
Iowa is either the most criminally underrated 12-0 team in recent memory, or the Hawkeyes collected the softest 12 wins in recent memory. FiveThirtyEight's Andrew Flowers, Jay Boice and Reuben Fischer-Baum calculated the Big Ten West champions have a 38 percent chance of winning the conference and a 39 percent chance of making the playoff.
It's hard not to be skeptical about Iowa's resume when looking at a number of different performance-based metrics:
| Record | 12-0 | 11-1 |
| Strength of Schedule | 62nd | 53rd |
| Total Offense | 404.3 YPG (63rd) | 399.4 YPG (68th) |
| Passing Offense | 200.6 YPG (92nd) | 239.8 YPG (48th) |
| Rushing Offense | 159.6 YPG (80th) | 203.7 YPG (32nd) |
| S&P+ Rating (Offense) | 32.5 (47th) | 36.4 (26th) |
| Total Defense | 331.7 YPG (21st) | 349.2 YPG (27th) |
| Pass Defense | 221.7 YPG (63rd) | 231.0 YPG (T75th) |
| Rush Defense | 110.0 YPG (6th) | 118.2 YPG (16th) |
| S&P+ Rating (Defense) | 21.5 (27th) | 20.3 (18th) |
Sports on Earth's Matt Brown also pointed to two additional arguments as to why Iowa might be a little worse than its record would indicate:
"The Hawkeyes are plus-14 in turnover margin and 5-0 in games decided by eight points or less, both of which are unsustainable numbers that tend to even out over time. Even though Iowa is undefeated, there is plenty of evidence that Iowa is not actually one of college football's four best teams -- which is what the College Football Playoff is supposed to include.
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You could raise similar concerns about Michigan State, especially since the Spartans' three biggest wins have varying levels of footnotes. They should have lost to Michigan, beat an Oregon team while Vernon Adams was still learning the Ducks offense and narrowly edged out Ohio State the week before the Buckeyes actually became the team everybody was expecting.
To be fair to Michigan State, it didn't have Connor Cook in the victory over the Buckeyes. He promptly returned for the Penn State game and threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns in a 55-16 win.
The last time the Spartans played Iowa in 2013, Cook went for 277 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio said that's when his quarterback "sort of took off," according to Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press.
Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz also noticed a bit of a change in both Cook and the Spartans from that point forward, per Rexrode:
"The thing I remember about some of the early-season film that we saw, it almost looked like the receivers were allergic to the ball. They really were just not catching the ball very consistently. It just seems like in our game is when that all came together. The receivers really played well. And Connor Cook really hit stride. … It seems like they haven’t looked back since then.
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Shutting down Cook will be Iowa's main objective on defense. The Hawkeyes can't allow this game to turn into a track meet. C.J. Beathard has been good under center for Iowa this year, but he won't be able to match Cook in a head-to-head quarterback battle.
The other worrying aspect of this matchup for the Hawkeyes is Michigan State's run defense, which is ranked sixth in the country.
Say what you want about Urban Meyer's play-calling, but the Spartans still held Ezekiel Elliott to 2.8 yards per carry—his lowest average since his freshman season.
If Michigan State bottles up Jordan Canzeri in similar fashion, Iowa's offense will have a hard time stringing scoring drives together.
Defense has been a hallmark of Dantonio's tenure in East Lansing, but his offense will propel the Spartans to the playoffs. Michigan State will do enough to limit Canzeri on the ground and outpace Iowa through the air on the strength of Cook's right arm.
Prediction: Michigan State 38, Iowa 24
Note: Big Ten championship odds are courtesy of Odds Shark. Advanced metrics are courtesy of Football Outsiders.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
