Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (10-1) hope to rebound from their first loss of the season when they host the struggling Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) on Sunday. The Patriots were upset by the Denver Broncos 30-24 in overtime as 2.5-point road favorites last Sunday night, while the Eagles have lost three in a row both straight up and against the spread.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.0-19.6 Patriots

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

There is no doubt that New England is banged up right now, and Denver was able to take advantage of the team’s injuries last week.

Offensively, the Patriots are without their top four receivers from earlier in the season, including running back Dion Lewis (knee), wide receivers Julian Edelman (foot) and Danny Amendola (knee) and tight end Rob Gronkowski (knee). While Amendola hopes to return to action, quarterback Tom Brady can only do so much with the group he has available to him.

Philly also has to be extra motivated in this spot because the team is only one game out of first place in the NFC East despite a three-game losing streak. A win over New England could be a huge confidence boost and help the Eagles steal the division away from the two co-leaders, who are both under .500. In addition, they are an impressive 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their past six as underdogs in the series.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Pats have had several close calls lately, and it finally caught up to them in the loss to the Broncos. That being said, Philadelphia is not Denver, and this game is not being played on the road in a tough environment. They have shown a great tendency to play well off a setback like that, too, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a loss.

New England still has the best head coach in the NFL in Bill Belichick, who will work hard to exploit the weaknesses of the Eagles. Philadelphia has lots of them, which is why they have struggled more than many expected them to this year.

Starting at the quarterback position, Eagles head coach Chip Kelly has painted himself into a corner and has no other options there. Known as an offensive genius in college, Kelly’s system has seemingly hit the wall in the pros and will be exposed again by Belichick.

Smart pick

Philadelphia’s last two losses should ruin any confidence you might have in backing this team to cover the spread here. Losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home and the Detroit Lions on the road by an average of nearly 30 points is unexplainable and might ultimately be the reason Kelly gets let go at the end of the season. For that reason, take the Patriots to bounce back and hand the Eagles another double-digit loss.

Betting trends

The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games in December.

The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.