College Football Playoff Championship 2016: Predictions, Odds for All Matchups
Configuring the top four teams in the country is somewhat easy at this stage of the college football season. Figuring out who among that four is the best is slightly more difficult.
Barring a major surprise, Clemson, Oklahoma, Alabama and one of Michigan State/Iowa will make it to the College Football Playoff.
In most years, one or two teams really stand out from the rest. Oregon fell under that umbrella last year, and Florida State did back in 2013. That isn't necessarily the case in 2015. Clemson is deservedly No. 1 in every major poll, but the Tigers aren't a class above Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State and the other top-five schools.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As a result, forecasting how the playoff will unfold is an exercise in futility.
National Championship Odds
| Alabama | 11/10 |
| Oklahoma | 5/2 |
| Clemson | 11/2 |
| Michigan State | 9/1 |
| Iowa | 16/1 |
| Ohio State | 16/1 |
| North Carolina | 20/1 |
| Stanford | 33/1 |
Bowl Predictions
| National Semifinals | |||
| Dec. 31, 2015 | Orange Bowl | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Michigan State | CLEM, 27-20 |
| Dec. 31, 2015 | Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oklahoma | OKLA, 30-24 |
| National Championship | |||
| Jan. 12, 2016 | CFP National Championship | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 3 Oklahoma | CLEM, 35-17 |
Orange Bowl
Clemson may not be a dominant team, but the Tigers are the most complete team in the country.
According to ESPN.com, the ACC Atlantic champions are allowing the eighth-fewest yards a game (288.5) and are surrendering 18.8 points a game, which ranks 17th. On the offensive side of the ball, the Tigers also have a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback in Deshaun Watson.
Michigan State, on the other hand, looks like a good, but not great, team. According to Football Outsiders, the Spartans rank eighth in the F/+ combined rating.
It's not a far stretch to say they would've lost to the Ohio State team that beat Michigan rather than the one that showed up in Columbus on Nov. 21. In addition, Michigan State should've lost to Michigan, and you wonder how Oregon might have performed against the Spartans with this version of Vernon Adams.
Michigan State would be more than deserving of a playoff spot should it win the Big Ten, but its flaws would be exposed should it meet Clemson in the semifinals.
Cotton Bowl
While Clemson is the No. 1 team, Oklahoma surely owns the title of hottest team in college football. The Sooners will enter the playoff coming off successive victories over Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.
"You want to get better as each game goes on, and that's what we've done," said defensive end Eric Striker, per ESPN.com's Chris Low. "It's just seemed to roll ever since that Texas game. We've been getting better and have more football to play."
Before Oklahoma's loss to Texas, one of the most perplexing aspects of the Sooners offense was its inability to get either Samaje Perine or Joe Mixon going on the ground. Since then, offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley has done an excellent job of establishing a steady running game:
| vs. Akron | 11 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD | 5 CAR, 27 YDS |
| at Tennessee | 23 CAR, 78 YDS | 10 CAR, 38 YDS |
| vs. Tulsa | 22 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD | 6 CAR, 28 YDS |
| vs. West Virginia | 16 CAR, 65 YDS | 6 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD |
| at Texas | 10 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD | 6 CAR, 24 YDS |
| at Kansas State | 11 CAR, 56 YDS | 15 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD |
| vs. Texas Tech | 23 CAR, 201 YDS, 4 TD | 16 CAR, 154 YDS, 2 TD |
| at Kansas | 11 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD | 6 CAR, 44 YDS |
| vs. Iowa State | 13 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD | 8 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD |
| at Baylor | 28 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD | 7 CAR, 7 YDS |
| vs. TCU | 26 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD | 11 CAR, 87 YDS |
| at Oklahoma State | 17 CAR, 131 YDS, 2 TD | 14 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD |
"We knew we had to make changes after the Texas game and guys really bought into the system Coach Riley brought over and the mentality just changed," said wide receiver Sterling Shepard, per USA Today's Dan Wolken. "When you find that mentality, it's kind of hard to stop."
Having such a potent ground attack would be a major help to the Sooners if they meet Alabama in the playoff. Ezekiel Elliott carved open the Crimson Tide in last year's semifinals to the tune of 230 yards on 20 carries.
Oklahoma is allowing 149.2 yards a game on the ground, which would be a concern against a team with Derrick Henry. The advanced metrics are more kind to the Sooners run defense, with the team ranking seventh in the S&P+ run defense rating, per Football Outsiders.
More importantly, the Sooners have intercepted 22 passes this year, fifth in the country. Turnovers played a key role in Alabama's defeats to Ole Miss and Ohio State in the last two years.
If Oklahoma can keep Derrick Henry relatively in check and force Jake Coker to win the game, the Sooners would have found the right combination to win the game.
National Championship
This would set up a rematch of last year's Russell Athletic Bowl, which Clemson won 40-6 over Oklahoma. Sooners QB Baker Mayfield is licking his chops at a chance for revenge, per Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer:
As ESPN noted, this is a very different Oklahoma team:
As good as Watson is under center for Clemson, the Tigers don't have the running game to match. Between Mayfield through the air and Perine/Mixon on the ground, the Sooners are the more balanced offensive team.
Clemson is far from a perfect team. Look no further than the fact it has turned the ball over 24 times, tied for 105th in the country, according to NCAA.com.
Those turnovers would prove costly against a ball-hawking Oklahoma, with the Sooners boasting enough offensive strength to translate those takeaways into points.
Note: National championship future odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
