Big Ten Championship 2015: Predictions for Michigan State vs. Iowa
The Big Ten Championship Game is set, with the Michigan State Spartans and Iowa Hawkeyes facing off on Saturday night.
While nothing is guaranteed to the winner of this game, the College Football Playoff committee appears to think highly of the Big Ten this season and will likely reward the winner with a spot in the playoff.
The loser will be eligible for selection into one of the New Year's Six bowl games, potentially the Rose Bowl, which will be awarded to the highest-ranked Big Ten team not selected to the playoff.
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Here's a look at the key matchups in this game, followed by a prediction for Saturday's outcome.
| Sat., Dec. 5 | 8:17 p.m. | Michigan State (-4) vs. Iowa | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis | FOX |
Series History
This will be the eighth meeting between head coaches Kirk Ferentz and Mark Dantonio, with Ferentz currently holding a 4-3 series lead.
The two teams last met in 2013, with Michigan State winning 26-14 in Iowa City.
Michigan State is returning to the Big Ten Championship Game for the third time in the five years of the game's existence. The Spartans won the game in 2013 against Ohio State.
This is Iowa's first trip to the championship game, and it would be the Hawkeyes' first outright Big Ten title since 1985.
Key Matchups
Michigan State QB Connor Cook vs. Iowa Defense
Despite their perfect record, the Hawkeyes defense isn't exactly cruising into the Big Ten Championship Game.
In its last four games—against Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska—the Iowa defense allowed over 400 yards of total offense in each contest while surrendering an average of 25.5 points per game.
In that four-game span, the Hawkeyes defense also managed to force six turnovers, with four coming courtesy of Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong.
Connor Cook has turned the ball over just four times this season, making him a difficult matchup for a Hawkeye defense that has been struggling as of late.
If Cook can help Michigan State control the ball and avoid any costly turnovers, the Spartans offense should move the ball consistently and put pressure on the Iowa offense to match its production.
Michigan State DE Shilique Calhoun vs. Iowa Offensive Line
The Spartans front seven will be the most difficult test Iowa's offensive line has faced all season.
Calhoun is the most concerning matchup for the Hawkeyes due to their inexperience at offensive tackle.
Iowa has rotated offensive linemen this season, starting four different players at offensive tackle as Ferentz has tried to find the right combination.
Calhoun is a disruptive force on the edge who could wreak havoc in the backfield if the Hawkeyes fall behind and are forced into more obvious throwing situations.
Iowa Rushing Attack vs. Michigan State Defense
Michigan State boasts the 16th-ranked run defense in the nation based on yards per game allowed. But the Hawkeyes won't be intimidated.
Iowa has already faced four of the top 25 teams in run defense (Pittsburgh, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin), rushing for 696 yards and 10 touchdowns in those games.
The Hawkeyes primarily rely on senior running back Jordan Canzeri, who leads the team with 964 rushing yards, but will also feature LeShun Daniels Jr., who has added another 592 yards.
Michigan State should be up for the challenge, as the Spartans have faced some of the nation's top running backs this season and contained them all.
Most notably, Michigan State held Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott to just 33 yards on 12 carries two weeks ago.
| Ezekiel Elliott | OSU | 12 | 33 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | ORE | 24 | 92 | 1 |
| De'Veon Smith | MICH | 19 | 46 | 0 |
Final Thoughts
Iowa's recent defensive struggles are concerning, especially given the level of competition the Hawkeyes have been facing.
Michigan State, on the other hand, is led by one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation and arguably playing its best football of the season.
Neither team has the offensive firepower to run away with this game, but if the Spartans can avoid costly turnovers, Michigan State should control the flow of the game and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: Michigan State 27, Iowa 17
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