Bowl Predictions 2015: CFP Projections with Conference Championships on Horizon

With conference championships less than a week away, the College Football Playoff is starting to take shape. If this season has proven anything, though, at least one or two more surprises remain before the final four semifinalists are announced.

The selection committee has yet to unveil its playoff rankings for Week 14, but the top four is unlikely to change after Clemson, Oklahoma, Alabama and Iowa all picked up victories.

Michigan State overtaking the Hawkeyes is the only foreseeable alteration. Bleacher Report had the Spartans in fourth place in its most recent rankings:

Two of the four playoff spots are essentially locks at this stage.

Oklahoma won't play again until bowl season. Unless the committee radically reverses in its opinion of the Sooners, the Big 12 champions are on course for a possible national championship. Similarly, either Michigan State or Iowa will be in the playoff depending on the result of the Big Ten title game.

Date	Bowl	Matchup	Projection
National Semifinals
Dec. 31, 2015	Orange Bowl	No. 1 Seed vs. No. 4 Seed	Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Dec. 31, 2015	Cotton Bowl	No. 2 Seed vs. No. 3 Seed	Alabama vs. Michigan State
Selection Committee Bowls
Dec. 31, 2015	Peach Bowl	At-large vs. At-large	Notre Dame vs. Florida State
Jan. 1, 2016	Sugar Bowl	Big 12 vs. SEC	TCU vs. Ole Miss
Jan. 1, 2016	Rose Bowl	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Ohio State vs. Stanford
Jan. 1, 2016	Fiesta Bowl	At-large vs. At-large	Iowa vs. Houston

Clemson and Alabama are the only two variables. Both teams are playoff-bound with victories—an outcome the playoff committee must secretly be praying for. Should one or both of the Tigers and/or Crimson Tide lose, Stanford, North Carolina and Ohio State would all lay claim to a playoff berth.

You'd expect conference champions to get preferential treatment over a team that failed to even make its title game. But the Buckeyes are the defending national champs, and the lasting memory the committee will have of them is their 42-13 demolition of Michigan—their best performance of the season.

Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod believes Ohio State could be the team that defies committee expectations:

Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora, on the other hand, doesn't believe his team should be overlooked by the committee, per David Hale of ESPN.com:

Here's a look at how the resumes of Ohio State, Stanford and North Carolina stack up against one another:

	UNC	Ohio State	Stanford
Record	11-1	11-1	10-2
S&P Rating	30th	4th	15th
F/+ Rating	22nd	6th	9th
Strength of Schedule	63rd	61st	16th
vs. Top 25 Teams	1-0	1-1	3-0
vs. Bowl-Eligible Teams	5-0	6-1	7-2
vs. Power Five Teams	9-1	8-1	9-2

Of course, the Cardinal and/or Tar Heels would have much stronger metrics should they win their respective conferences.

All of these doomsday scenarios illustrate the fact that no perfect means of determining a national champion in college football exist.

The four-team playoff is an upgrade over the Bowl Championship Series, but you could envision a future in which five or six teams have strong arguments for making the national semifinals. And increasing the playoff to six or eight teams will only mean the list of aggrieved fans would grow.

Smart Football's Chris B. Brown astutely noted any system predicated on what he labels a "Council of Platonic Guardians" is bound to be impacted by subjectivity inherent in human nature. The playoff committee is bound to let emotion get in the way of its decision-making when tough choices are necessary.

With any luck, Clemson and Alabama will win, thus eliminating the need for much drama. As much fun as it would be to see complete anarchy in the playoff rankings, you'd hate to see any sort of controversy cloud a team's road to the semifinals.