College Football Playoff Rankings: Biggest Takeaways from Week 13
Week 13 delivered on its annual promise, shining clarity on the College Football Playoff picture while leaving hints of intrigue for next week's conference championship games.
We didn't see an upset as big as Texas over Oklahoma, but rivalries across the country gave underdogs a chance to compete, and highly ranked matchups had inevitable playoff implications.
The CFP picture has crept into focus, and although most lines are still blurry, the shape is starting to become recognizable.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here are the biggest takeaways from rivalry week.
Oklahoma Punches First Ticket
Oklahoma won the Big 12 in dominant fashion, scoring 44 points in the first half of Bedlam and beating Oklahoma State 58-23.
The Sooners have rebounded from an ugly loss to Texas in October and punched the first unofficial ticket to the Final Four.
Clemson, Alabama and whoever wins the Big Ten title can punch tickets next weekend (more on that below), but Oklahoma clinched before them thanks to the lack of a Big 12 Championship Game, which gives the Sooners one fewer hurdle to clear.
Last year's Big 12 co-champions, TCU and Baylor, missed the playoff in part because the conference has no title game. It's more than a little ironic for that feature to prove beneficial the following season.
The Sooners and Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby are two of the weekend's biggest winners.
On to the national semis!
Notre Dame Falls Short
Injuries finally caught up with Notre Dame, which lost its second game of the season—and first against an opponent ranked lower than No. 1 in the current polls—on a last-second field goal at Stanford.
The Irish scored what appeared to be the game-winning touchdown with 30 seconds to play, but Stanford drove 45 yards on five plays to set up the game-winning kick by senior Conrad Ukropina:
The loss of starting cornerback KeiVarae Russell, who broke his tibia last week against Boston College, proved one too many for Notre Dame's depleted pass defense. Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan completed 17 of 21 passes for 269 yards and four touchdowns in the win.
The loss eliminates Notre Dame from reasonable playoff contention, although it's still likely to land in a New Year's Six bowl game. But that feels like a letdown for a team that head coach Brian Kelly said he would still put up against anyone, per Brian Hamilton of Sports Illustrated:
But bad news for the Irish spells good news for the playoff committee…
There Might Not Be a Controversy
Had Notre Dame beaten Stanford, there would have been another controversy on par with Ohio State over Baylor and TCU.
But Stanford's win over Notre Dame, along with the following results, keeps a fairly straightforward playoff in play:
- Iowa 28, Nebraska 20
- North Carolina 45, North Carolina State 34
- Oklahoma 58, Oklahoma State 23
- Michigan State 55, Penn State 16
As long as Alabama beats Florida in the SEC Championship Game—which seems likely based on Florida's 27-2 loss to Florida State—the playoff committee should have no trouble picking four teams.
Those four teams will be:
- Alabama (one-loss SEC champion)
- Oklahoma (one-loss Big 12 champion)
- Clemson/North Carolina (zero-loss/one-loss ACC champion)
- Iowa/Michigan State (0-loss/1-loss Big Ten champion)
If North Carolina beats Clemson, there's a chance 11-1 Ohio State, whose only loss came against Michigan State, could sneak in over the Tar Heels and ruin that projected foursome. But taking two teams from the Big Ten—even if one is the defending national champion—seems unlikely when there's a one-loss ACC champion who just (in this hypothetical) upset the No. 1 team in the country on a neutral field.
Respecting conference champions is how the committee took Ohio State last year. It's written right into its official selection criteria: "[The committee] will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines)."
As long as Alabama beats Florida, expect the playoff to turn out as stated above. A Crimson Tide win would turn Clemson-North Carolina and Iowa-Michigan State into CFP quarterfinals.
Or at least it would for all intents and purposes.
Craziest Playoff That's Still Possible
This one's for #TeamChaos.
The craziest playoff that's still realistically possible is:
- Iowa
- Oklahoma
- North Carolina
- Stanford
We get there with the above four teams winning their respective conference championship games, plus Florida beating Alabama.
The fourth spot would come down to Stanford and Ohio State, with the Buckeyes lobbying on the platform of having one loss to Stanford's two. But again, as mentioned above, Stanford's winning a Power Five conference would give it a massive leg up on OSU.
Either way, all chaos scenarios revolve around Florida beating Alabama. But don't hold your breath on that happening.
The Gators needed a safety to avoid getting shut out by Florida State.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
