Notre Dame vs. Stanford Complete Game Preview
Since its two-point road loss to Clemson, Notre Dame football’s season has been a week-to-week journey with a marquee matchup waiting Thanksgiving weekend.
Well, with six wins in six tries since the loss in Death Valley, the Irish do have their pivotal opportunity Saturday against Stanford, as College Football Playoff possibilities hang in the balance.
“They’re in a position to accomplish the mission that they went on and that was to have an opportunity to be part of one of the four teams selected for the playoffs,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly told reporters Tuesday. “They know they don’t control that. But they know that they control the way they prepare and the way they play on Saturday.”
The No. 6 Irish face the No. 9 Cardinal, an imposing foe despite the two-point home loss to Oregon two weeks ago. After a season-opening road loss to No. 20 Northwestern, the Cardinal rattled off eight consecutive victories, including wins over USC and UCLA.
“I know our players are excited about the challenge of playing Stanford on the road and a very good football team,” Kelly said.
Date: Saturday, November 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Place: Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California
TV: Fox
Radio: IMG College Sports, SiriusXM Channel 129
Spread: Stanford by 4, according to Odds Shark
Notre Dame Keys to Victory
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Find Will Fuller
Slowed by a few drops, Irish star wide receiver Will Fuller posted another quiet evening Saturday against Boston College.
The junior speedster followed up his three-catch, 37-yard performance on Senior Day against Wake Forest with a three-catch, 72-yard outing against the Eagles. And for the first time since the beginning of his breakout sophomore season, Fuller was held out of the end zone in consecutive games.
Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle helped shoulder the load against Boston College, but make no mistake: Notre Dame needs Fuller on Saturday.
“In big games the great players rise to the occasion,” Kelly said. “And so Will Fuller has to play great. Jaylon Smith’s got to play great. Sheldon Day has got to play great. Ronnie [Stanley] has got to play great. The great players have to step up. And for us to win they’ll have to play great. If they do, we will. If they don’t, we won’t. It’s that simple.”
Limit Big Plays
The Irish defense has had flashes of consistently stout play at various points this season. Yet the unit has also consistently allowed big plays, as it did in the fourth quarter Saturday against the Eagles, when Jeff Smith ripped off an 80-yard touchdown run to make Notre Dame fans squirm in their seats.
Notre Dame has allowed 12 runs of at least 30 yards to opponents this season, tied for the 107th-worst mark in the country.
“When you give up big plays, you need second-level and third-level support,” Kelly said. "I think our first-level defense has been really, really good. Our second-level defense has been solid. And our third level has not been as good. And so when you're giving up 75-yard runs, it's generally third-level support.”
Enter Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey and Stanford, which has posted 11 rushes of at least 30 yards this season, tied for the 18th most in the country.
“I think you can kind of understand that from a defensive structure, when you give up plays of that magnitude, you have to address it with specific eye control and discipline, which we've lacked at times,” Kelly said.
Stanford Keys to Victory
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Find the Playmakers
Beyond McCaffrey, Stanford head coach David Shaw has touted the Cardinal’s team speed on offense.
“I think we’ve got one heck of a four-by-one [hundred] team,” Shaw told reporters after the win over Cal on Saturday. “I think it’s truly special.”
Running back Barry Sanders is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and has tallied 312 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while senior wideout Michael Rector (27 catches for 423 yards and four touchdowns) has been the top pass-catcher not named McCaffrey.
“We’ve talked so much about increasing our speed really for the last six or seven years, to find those guys that can finish plays,” Shaw said. “We talked a couple years ago about tired of having 20-yard games. We want 50-yard touchdowns.”
Kelly said McCaffrey has been the primary difference in offensive speed for the Cardinal, but there are playmakers surrounding the Heisman hopeful.
Stop the Run
In its last two games against Wake Forest and Boston College, Notre Dame has mustered two of its four lowest rushing outputs of the season. The Irish picked up just 127 rushing yards against the Eagles on Saturday after a 171-yard showing on Senior Day. The Irish averaged just 23.5 points in those two weeks.
“Running the football against Stanford, any team, in a game like this, you have to be able to control the football,” Kelly said. “We've got to keep their offense off the field. We can't be three-and-out and let their offense have a number of possessions. So running the football is extremely important to what we do in the success that we're going to have.”
The Cardinal rank tied for 28th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 131 yards per game.
Notre Dame Players to Watch
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Running Backs
After leaving Saturday’s game with a high ankle sprain, Irish running back C.J. Prosise’s status is in question for this weekend.
Kelly said Sunday that Prosise is “doubtful” for Saturday, then Tuesday said the top running back is “day to day” and currently in a walking boot.
“We’ll see where that takes us through the week,” Kelly said.
If Prosise can’t go, the Irish will turn to true freshman Josh Adams and perhaps his backup, fellow rookie Dexter Williams, who’s only logged one carry over the last two weeks.
“We run the same plays with those guys,” Kelly said. “We don't change anything. When they're out there, when the second group takes their reps, we're running the same plays.”
Adams only produced 39 yards on 13 carries against the stiff Eagles defense. The wiry Pennsylvania product did notch 141 yards on 17 carries the previous week against Wake Forest, but the bulk of those came on his admittedly impressive 98-yard touchdown sprint.
“I thought he was productive,” Kelly said of Adams’ night against Boston College. “We asked him to get some tough yardage on Saturday. The kind of runs that he was making were between the tackles. So they were tough yards trying to close out the game.”
Williams, the highly-touted freshman from Florida, hasn’t factored into the game plan much in recent weeks, and Kelly said they’re bringing him along slowly and adding practice reps to his plate each week.
“He’s going to have to play and he’s going to have to contribute this weekend,” Kelly said. “And we think he’s ready to contribute and help the football team win this weekend. But it’s been slower than Josh, but it’s been, for a true freshman, accelerated in a sense.”
Cornerbacks
More injuries.
If you were thinking Notre Dame had reached its injury quota for this season—or maybe for the next few seasons, too—think again. Senior cornerback KeiVarae Russell is out six to eight weeks after suffering a fractured tibia Saturday against Boston College.
The Irish have options—all unproven—to step in, including junior and fall camp surprise Devin Butler, sophomore Nick Watkins and true freshman Nick Coleman, who also drew his share of fall praise and reps.
“Devin Butler started against Stanford last year,” Kelly said. “So Devin's got some starting experience and has played a lot. But we'd like to see Nick Watkins. We'd like to see Coleman. We'd like to see all three of them in the game and contribute.”
Kelly said using all three cornerbacks as a combination may be the best option for defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder and his unit.
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Stanford Players to Watch
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Christian McCaffrey
For all the attention and praise heaped on star running backs like LSU’s Leonard Fournette, Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott, Florida State’s Dalvin Cook, Oregon’s Royce Freeman and Alabama’s Derrick Henry, consider this.
Stanford standout Christian McCaffrey leads all of them in yards from scrimmage, averaging 178.4 yards per game.
Factor in his contributions in the kick return game, as well, and McCaffrey’s 255.2 all-purpose yards per game are far and away the most in the country, besting Fournette’s fifth-place mark of 174.8 all-purpose yards per game.
“This year it seems to be about Christian McCaffrey and rightfully so,” Kelly said of Stanford. “He's a game-wrecker. He's a guy that can influence the game in special teams, catching the ball out of the backfield, certainly running the football.”
On Saturday against Cal, McCaffrey carried 29 times for 192 yards (6.6 yards per carry), took a 49-yard reception to the house and churned out a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown seconds before halftime.
“Has anybody seen a running back—I’ll say this, a football player—better than Christian McCaffrey this year?” Shaw asked reporters after the game. “Tell me. Show him to me. I haven’t seen anybody.”
Neither have the Irish, David.
Blake Martinez
Stanford inside linebacker Blake Martinez directs a Cardinal unit that ranks 36th in the nation in scoring defense, at 22 points per game.
Martinez leads Stanford with 109 total tackles, 64 more than second-place outside linebacker Peter Kalambayi.
“Martinez leads their team,” Kelly said. “He’s the quarterback there on defense, and we have a great deal of respect for him.”
What They're Saying
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“Yeah, we do. But again, we don't control that. There's a committee that makes those decisions. All we can do is control the way we perform and the way we prepare.” — Irish head coach Brian Kelly, when asked if he thinks Notre Dame is a playoff team with a win Saturday.
“It hasn't been front-loaded. It hasn't been back-loaded. We've had to play good football all year.” — Kelly on Notre Dame’s argument for a playoff berth with a win.
“The one thing, if we have a weakness, when we feel the game is in our hands, we let up a little bit. That's unfortunate, but it's a little bit of who we are. And I'd like to have a little bit more of a killer instinct.” — Kelly when asked about the defensive focus.
“We’d like to see all three of them in the game and contribute. We think all of them can contribute and not necessarily have to rely on one guy. We think all three of them as a combination might be the best way to go.” — Kelly on cornerbacks Devin Butler, Nick Watkins and Nick Coleman, who could all log time in place of KeiVarae Russell, who’s out six to eight weeks after fracturing his tibia Saturday against Boston College.
“The discipline to play quarterback is incredible. It requires a mental discipline. … That’s the hardest thing.” — Kelly on quarterback DeShone Kizer.
“They clearly understand. We met with them last night. They know they can’t turn the football over that many times and expect to beat Stanford. So they’ve got to play their very best. This one’s easy. This one’s pretty easy.” — Kelly on the offense after a five-turnover outing Saturday.
“It’s kind of like if one guy goes down, they pick the flag up and the next guy starts moving. Guy goes down, they pick the flag up and they keep moving. One of those Revolutionary War scenes where they keep marching forward.” — Kelly on Notre Dame’s resiliency and responsiveness.
“We’ve got to make up a name. I think it’s up to you guys to come up with a name for this game so we can get in with the in crowd, and then I think people will pay more attention to it.” — Kelly joking about the rivalry with Stanford.
“I have not seen anybody in America like this kid. He’s truly, truly special. Kickoff returner, runner, receiver, blocker. … The kid’s just truly, truly special.” — Shaw to reporters Saturday on running back Christian McCaffrey.
“Everyone knows we got the deepest conference in America. And we just went 8-1 and lost a tight one to Oregon, who is also one of the best teams in America. Make no mistake about it.” — Shaw on Saturday.
“We get to put the Pac-12 in a little bit of a box right now and put it up on the shelf for a week and go play a really, really good football team in Notre Dame next week.” — Shaw after Saturday’s win.
Prediction
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Back and forth. Back and forth.
With each injury, each unexpected contribution, each lackluster performance, the feelings have swung one way or another on Saturday’s showdown.
Recently, it’s five turnovers and another round of injuries—to Russell and Prosise—that look troublesome for Notre Dame. But earlier this season, when looking ahead at the Thanksgiving weekend tilt, we highlighted Notre Dame’s experience, leadership and resiliency.
That foundation is still in place.
It might not be pretty, as last year’s 17-14 win over Stanford and the memorable 20-13 overtime victory in 2012 suggest; it likely won’t be.
But Notre Dame can find a way to accomplish its mission on Saturday.
Prediction: Notre Dame 23, Stanford 20
All quotes were obtained firsthand and all stats courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Mike Monaco is the lead Notre Dame writer for Bleacher Report. Follow @MikeMonaco_ on Twitter.
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