Saints vs. Texans: Full Houston Week 12 Preview
The Houston Texans haven't been above the .500 mark since last season, but they have a chance to earn their first winning record since December 2014 and move into a wild-card playoff spot if they can defeat the New Orleans Saints this week.
For most of this season, the only playoff spot that seemed obtainable was through the AFC South title because of how weak the division had been with the injury to and poor play of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, but Houston's current three-game winning streak has put them just one game out of the last wild-card spot.
At 5-5, the Texans trail the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 5-5 Kansas City Chiefs (lost head-to-head in Week 1) each by one game.
So depending on how Week 12 shakes out, the Texans could end up alone in first place in the AFC South or even as the fifth seed and first wild-card team based off a conference-record tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.
Fortunes certainly change quickly in the NFL.
Week 11 Results and Recap
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The Texans Week 11 win over the New York Jets can best be described by two things: a dominant defensive effort and another outstanding performance from wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
Starting with the latter, Hopkins had his fifth 100-yard receiving game of the season with five receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns, as he absolutely torched "Revis Island" to the ground.
Hopkins burned Darrelle Revis for a 61-yard touchdown in the second quarter and nearly had another long touchdown earlier in the game, but T.J. Yates overthrew the pass and cost the team a sure touchdown.
For the game, Revis allowed five receptions for 114 yards, and Yates had a 137.5 QB rating on passes thrown against him, according to Pro Football Focus, in only about one half of play before leaving the game with a concussion.
Revis hadn't allowed five or more receptions for over 100 yards with a QB rating against him of over 100 since his rookie season in 2007.
Coming into the game against Houston, Revis ranked inside the top three for both opposing quarterback completion percentage and QB rating, so Hopkins deserves praise more than Revis deserves talk of his play falling off.
Factoring in the Texans' awful running game that no opponent fears and the quarterbacks he's played with this season, it's an amazing feat for Hopkins to rank inside the top three for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
It's time to bring up his name whenever we discuss who the top three or five wide receivers are in the league today.
Houston's star player on the other side of the ball had a big game as well.
J.J. Watt continued his recent surge of great play with a team-leading eight tackles, two sacks, five tackles for loss and six hits on the quarterback against the Jets.
During the Texans' run of great play on defense dating back to the second half of the game against the Miami Dolphins, Watt has seven sacks and 13 hits on the quarterback over that time. Watt's overall grade from Pro Football Focus is twice as high as the next best 3-4 defensive end during that stretch.
They have 20 other starters who need to contribute and have recently, but as long as Watt and Hopkins play this well, they'll always have a chance to win.
News and Notes
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Brian Hoyer Clears Concussion Protocol
If you've listened to any sports talk shows in Houston or read some of the message boards, then you might be aware of the silly quarterback battle some people are talking about, but Brian Hoyer will start against the Saints after recovering from the concussion he suffered against Cincinnati.
"Brian Hoyer: 'Yeah I felt great. Actually going through the protocol last week I started to feel better the more physical activities I did'
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) November 25, 2015 "
"O'Brien on #Texans QB Brian Hoyer: "He passed the final (concussion) test and he will be our starter on Sunday."
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 23, 2015"
J.J. Watt Leads Defensive Ends in Pro Bowl Balloting
"J.J. Watt leads Pro Bowl fan balloting among defensive ends with 165,879 votes
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) November 25, 2015"
Well of course he does; how could he not?
With his star power and name recognition, he probably would have won this popularity contest anyway, but Watt does lead the NFL in sacks with 11.5, tackles for loss with 21 and is tied with Cliff Avril for most passes defensed by a defensive lineman with five.
Latest Injury News
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Kareem Jackson
Kareem Jackson has had a down season by comparison to recent years, but the Texans need him on the field against New Orleans this week. Currently, Jackson has the second-lowest coverage grade from Pro Football Focus, but despite that, he's still capable of helping this team.
Jackson received his only positive game grade from Pro Football Focus of the season during the last game he played (against the Jacksonville Jaguars), but he only played 19 snaps before leaving the game due to injury.
As an offense, the Saints like to spread the ball around to many capable targets—Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, Marques Watson and Benjamin Watson—so the Texans will need all hands on deck so to speak to cover everybody.
Derek Newton
The Texans don't have much depth along the offensive line, so they can't afford to lose Newton, who has been limited at practice this week. New Orleans doesn't have much of a team pass rush, but defensive end Cameron Jordan is a game-changer.
Jordan has spent most of this season lined up across from the opposition's right tackle, so the health and availability of Newton is huge.
Chris Polk
With Arian Foster out for the season, the Texans don't have much depth or quality at running back. The more healthy bodies available, the better for the running back position in the NFL, but Chris Polk has only averaged 3.3 yards per carry this season, so it won't be a huge loss if he can't play this week.
Jonathan Grimes has shown flashes of quality play, but after that, both Polk and Alfred Blue are painfully below average and "just a guy." The Texans need to run the ball well for the offense to play efficiently, but Polk's presence won't improve that situation.
".@HoustonTexans Wednesday Practice Report (11/25): pic.twitter.com/vAgd1ij4aj
— Texans PR (@TexansPR) November 25, 2015"
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Key Matchups
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Covering Brandin Cooks
The second-year wide receiver from Oregon State had a slow start to the year but has started delivering on the potential so many were enamored with after his rookie season.
Over the Saints' last four games, Cooks has five touchdowns and has averaged five receptions and 84 yards per game. Those numbers may not seem eye-popping, but over a full season, that average would work out to 80 receptions, 1,344 yards and 20 touchdowns; he's been hot recently.
Cooks leads the Saints in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this season.
"Bill O'Brien praised Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks heavily, says he's been highly impressed with him ever since Oregon State days
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) November 25, 2015"
The Texans have held up against some of the tall receivers they've faced recently such as A.J. Green, but Cooks will provide a different type of challenge.
Like T.Y. Hilton, who has been a nightmare to cover for the Texans, Cooks is a small guy with blazing speed and great moves in space to make defenders miss. The Texans cornerbacks have played well recently, and Kareem Jackson will hopefully return from injury, but none of them have great, down-the-field speed.
Giving safety help over the top against Cooks wouldn't be a bad idea early in the game while they get a feel for how the Saints want to attack their coverage.
Blocking Cameron Jordan
The Saints defense has been awful this year, but Cameron Jordan is a very skilled pass-rusher and is capable of ruining game plans in a heartbeat.
"George Godsey on Cameron Jordan: 'He lines up on the inside and outside.' Praised him for versatility, quickness
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) November 25, 2015"
Jordan leads the team in sacks with six this season—also led the Saints in 2012 and 2013—ranks first among 4-3 defensive ends in quarterback hurries with 38 and is the highest-graded player at his position from Pro Football Focus this year.
The Texans rank 15th in sacks allowed this season but gave up three each against the Tennessee Titans the and Cincinnati Bengals recently, so knowing where Jordan is at all times and giving help with a tight end or running back like other teams do against Watt will be crucial.
Texans X-Factor of the Week
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Texans X-Factor of the Week: Brian Cushing
The play of Brian Cushing is important to the success of the Texans defense every week, but they'll need a big game from against New Orleans.
During the two embarrassing blowout losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Miami—not to mention a few other games—the Texans defense struggled at times with lining up properly and communicating the play call, which obviously led to confusion and big plays for the opponent.
Facing Drew Brees this week will test just how well they've solved those issues over their three-game winning streak.
Brees isn't afraid to audible, and the Saints offense does a great job of using misdirection and different route combinations designed to get the defense out of position, so if Cushing doesn't do his job well as the signal-caller on defense, New Orleans could pop a few plays for big gains.
Cushing will also likely be asked to cover a talented tight end a few times during the game, which has been a problem for him in recent years.
He currently ranks 27th among inside linebackers in the coverage grade from Pro Football Focus, and opposing quarterbacks have completed 25 of 30 pass attempts against him with a 100.4 QB rating this year.
Veteran tight end Benjamin Watson ranks inside the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards and receptions over 20 yards, so Cushing will have his hands full.
There will be a lot on Cushing's plate for this Thanksgiving weekend game, but he's been playing well and appears to be up for the task.
Prediction: Texans 27, Saints 23
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Common sense would say the Texans, with a limited running game and an average quarterback, can't afford to get in a shootout with a team such as New Orleans, but the terrible Saints defense has made average offensive teams look great all year long.
Just two weeks ago in Week 10, the Saints gave up 510 yards and 47 points to a Washington Redskins team led by Kirk Cousins. Over their other nine games, the Redskins averaged just 313 yards and 19 points against all other opponents.
Overall, the Redskins rank just 20th and 28th in points scored and yards gained, respectively, and they scored a total of 26 combined points in their games the week before and the week after that win over New Orleans.
The Texans rank 25th in points scored at just under 21 per game, but they should be able to put up more points than that this week.
Even if they don't, the Houston defense has held each of its last three opponents to under 200 yards passing, under 100 yards rushing and under 20 points scored with an average of 9.6 points per game, so we should have confidence in the defense's ability to slow down the New Orleans offense.
Prediction: Texans 27, Saints 23
Follow me on Twitter for more news and opinion on the Texans: @sackedbybmac.
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