College Football Playoff 2015: Updated Week 13 Rankings, Teams with Most to Gain
With just a few more weeks remaining in the 2015 regular season, Saturday is many teams' last chance to build a case for making the College Football Playoff. For others a little lower in the standings, a place in one of the New Year's Six bowls may be on the line.
The CFP committee released its most recent rankings Tuesday night:
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For the four teams below, Week 13 carries particular significance since they can either climb significantly in the polls or pass their biggest remaining hurdles on the schedule.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan's playoff chances died with Blake O'Neill mishandled a punt and allowed Michigan State to win in the most improbable fashion imaginable. There are too many one-loss teams across the country to allow the Wolverines to crack the top four.
Jim Harbaugh's team does, however, have a chance to qualify for one of the New Year's Six bowls. In order to do so, it will need to beat the reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes.
Given his upbringing, this rivalry is particularly special for Harbaugh, as he told Nick Baumgardner of MLive Media Group:
Losing to Ohio State would obviously be painful for Michigan fans, but they could take many positives from a 9-3 record heading into bowl season. But 10 wins and a major bowl game would be a tremendous step forward after the ignominious end to Brady Hoke's tenure.
Florida Gators
The 2006 Rose Bowl is the last time the BCS National Championship didn't include the SEC champion, and the trend continued through the first year of the playoff.
If the Alabama Crimson Tide don't win the SEC title game, there's a good chance the selection committee leaves the conference out this year. Ole Miss won't crack the top four, while even a one-loss Florida may not have done enough to warrant inclusion.
The Gators may have that road win over the Rebels in their back pocket, but they have been a different team since Will Grier's suspension. They only beat Vanderbilt by two points at home and nearly fell to Florida Atlantic.
Saturday's game against Florida State is an opportunity for the Gators to make a statement to the selection committee. Beating the Seminoles in convincing fashion wouldn't automatically get Florida into the playoff, but it would serve as a great prelude to the SEC Championship Game, where Florida could cement its playoff candidacy.
Navy Midshipmen
Neither Houston nor Navy is going to make the playoff, but one of the Cougars or Midshipmen will almost certainly be the representative from the Group of Five in one of the New Year's Six bowl games as selected by the playoff committee.
If Houston wins, then it would still have the AAC Championship Game against Temple or South Florida to worry about. Should Navy prevail, it would still need to get past Army in addition to its conference title game. Still, as ESPN.com's Travis Haney noted, Navy is in the driver's seat:
Reaching a New Year's Six bowl would be the biggest accomplishment for the Midshipmen since they lost to top-ranked Texas in the 1964 Cotton Bowl.
Former head coach Paul Johnson made Navy more relevant on a national scale, and Ken Niumatalolo has taken that progress one step further. The Midshipmen need to make the most of this season since Niumatalolo may not hang around Annapolis, Maryland, much longer. Sports Illustrated's Thayer Evans mentioned him as one of many possible candidates for Iowa State's vacancy.
Who knows when Navy will be in this situation again, so beating Houston would be a massive victory for the school.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame fans will also be watching the Navy-Houston game with added interest. A win for the Midshipmen would bolster the Fighting Irish's strength of schedule, and the Irish need all the help they can get in order to impress the selection committee.
ESPN's Joe Schad highlighted how Notre Dame's opponents have done them no favors this year:
Playoff chairman Jeff Long provided the reasoning behind Notre Dame's fall from fourth to sixth in the playoff rankings, per Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel:
One of Iowa or Michigan State is bound to fall out of the top four following the Big Ten Championship Game. The Fighting Irish may have fallen out of a playoff spot for now, but they still have a chance of getting back in the equation.
Notre Dame's problem is the fact Oklahoma plays Oklahoma State this week. Recency bias is a real thing, and beating Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State in successive weeks at the end of the regular season would almost lock the Sooners into the playoff.
The only chance for the Fighting Irish is by virtue of a definitive win over Stanford and a Navy victory. Beating the Cardinal by 20-plus points might turn the committee around on Notre Dame.
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