
Which College Football Playoff Hopeful Has the Best QB?
Having an elite quarterback isn't a necessity when it comes to making a playoff or national championship run. Neither is having a veteran quarterback. Those characteristics are considered more of a luxury.
Consider the following: Of the last six national title winners, only one—Alabama in 2012—had a multiyear starter at quarterback (AJ McCarron) at the time they won it all. The others—Ohio State (2014), Florida State ('13), Auburn ('10) and Alabama ('09)—had a first-year starter. McCarron, in fact, was a first-year starter in 2011 when Alabama beat LSU.
In that same span, only Florida State and Auburn had once-in-a-generation quarterbacks in Jameis Winston and Cam Newton, respectively. The last two teams that had the best of both worlds was Florida in 2008 with Tim Tebow and Texas with Vince Young in 2005.
The point being, if having a superstar at quarterback was a prerequisite for winning the whole dang thing, Oregon's Marcus Mariota would have been celebrating a long-awaited title last season.
Clemson sophomore Deshaun Watson could break that trend, however.
With two weeks left in the 2015 season, Watson has stated his case as college football's best quarterback in a year in which running backs have dominated. Since the Tigers are the No. 1 team according to the College Football Playoff Top 25—a new set of rankings will be revealed Tuesday night—Watson also happens to be the best quarterback on a playoff-caliber team.
As a second-year starter (the first full-time), Watson has been outstanding. He leads the ACC with 326 total yards per game—that ranks 11th nationally—and a passer rating of 161.08. David Hale of ESPN.com breaks down Watson's numbers further:
"Still, what Watson’s doing is impressive. He’s now topped 380 yards in four straight and five of the last six (the lone exception because he was limited in a blowout of Miami). In the last decade, no other ACC quarterback has had more than three straight games with 380 yards or more of offense.
Only two players — Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell and Hawaii’s Colt Brennan — had more conference games with at least 385 yards of offense and a touchdown in a season. Only Baylor’s Robert Griffin III (5) had a streak of 385-yard/one-touchdown games against conference foes longer than Watson’s (4).
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In a wide-open year for the Heisman, Watson is the quarterback most likely to win the award at 3-1 odds, according to Odds Shark. That's second behind only Alabama running back Derrick Henry. The next-closest quarterback in terms of Heisman odds is Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield at 14-1. For what it's worth, Zac Ellis of Sports Illustrated has Watson as his No. 1 Heisman candidate.
While it remains to be seen who will win the Heisman, Watson already has the vote of one former winner: Newton.
Per Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer, Newton said:
"That’s my little brother, man. I’ve seen Deshaun grow. When I first met Deshaun he was in 11th grade and he was on my all-star team. He was always eager. He was like a sponge. Quiet, but yet always looking to see how he could make his game better. For me to see him playing down the road at Clemson, it’s great.
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Watson and Mayfield are newer faces relative to the likes of other star quarterbacks like Michigan State's Connor Cook and Stanford's Kevin Hogan, both of whom are also battling for a playoff spot. However, Watson and Mayfield have been two of the more electric players in college football this year. And with TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin and Baylor quarterback Seth Russell suffering injuries, Watson and Mayfield also have the added benefit of being healthy.
Mayfield sustained a head injury in Week 12 against TCU, but has passed concussion tests and is cleared to resume practice ahead of this week's game against Oklahoma State, according to head coach Bob Stoops (via the team's official Twitter account.)
Even though Watson and Mayfield are dual-threat quarterbacks and shifty scramblers, they use their skill set in different ways. Mayfield has drawn the Johnny Manziel comparison because of his ability to extend the play with theatrics. He's a backyard football gunslinger to the bone. Every snap he takes has the ability to end up on a highlight reel.
Watson can also scramble with the best of them, but his improvisation skills are a bit more subtle. As B/R colleague Michael Felder explains, the game has slowed down a lot for Watson over the course of the season to the point where a breakdown in a play doesn't control him; rather, he controls the situation:
Pro Football Focus' Gordon McGuinness did a good write-up on Watson that explains as much. His legs will always be there as a safety outlet, but he uses them to help make greater strides in his passing game. His arm strength has always been there, but his ball placement is now as good as it has ever been:
"Since the lopsided win over Miami, Watson has graded positively as a passer in every game, with his rushing boosting his grade and the Clemson offense when it’s been needed. He’s a gifted athlete who can make a defense pay with his legs, but it’s been the maturation of him as a passer which has seen him really start to impress and become the type of quarterback many believed he could be after last season. Comparing his performances as a passer from the first eight weeks of the season to the past four really is night and day.
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Because Watson doesn't have the same level of pure flash Mayfield does, it can be easier to take for granted just how easy he makes it look. Mayfield's game has an element of anarchy to it—and it works for him. Oklahoma knows it's going to live and die by that. But rarely is there a time when Watson doesn't look like he's in complete control of what's happening.
In a year in which quarterbacks aren't ruling college football, it's easy to gravitate toward the gaudy numbers and the highlight-reel plays. Quietly, though—if that's possible—Watson has improved greatly over the course of the season and transformed into the most complete quarterback. He just so happens to play on one of college football's most complete teams.
Together, Watson and Clemson have an opportunity to become part of rare company by winning a national championship with an accomplished and truly gifted signal-caller.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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