Bowl Projections 2015: Updated CFP Predictions Following Week 13 AP Poll

Sigh.

These projections seem to get torn to shreds and revised every week. Such is life in college football this year, where very few teams seem capable of remaining in the playoff picture. This week, Ohio State and Oklahoma State saw their College Football Playoff hopes likely ended. 

But there is much football to be played, and the projections must go on. So with this week's Associated Press rankings released, let's project the major bowls and playoff matchups once again.

Rankings

No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Michigan State

Clemson is two wins away from being the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, though as we all know, very little is guaranteed at this time of the year, and South Carolina and North Carolina will hardly roll over and play dead. Still, Clemson feels like one of the safer picks to project into the playoff.

Meanwhile, Michigan State's win over Ohio State puts it back in the running. The Spartans are two wins away from likely having a strong enough resume to earn a playoff berth, as winning out will mean a win over Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Wins over Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa would be pretty tough for the committee to ignore. 

Indeed, Michigan State's resume looks really solid already, as Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports noted:

Look for Sparty to reach the playoff.

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

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If Alabama wins out, it's in. Simple as that. And while the Iron Bowl is always unpredictable—and Florida is a very good football team—is anybody betting against Alabama at this time of the year?

Oklahoma, like Michigan State, should have an impressive enough resume to leapfrog Notre Dame down the stretch, meanwhile, assuming it finishes its season with a win over Oklahoma State. Closing the year with wins over Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks would certainly get the committee's attention. 

Bob Stoops certainly thinks a win over the Cowboys should get his Sooners into the playoff.

"Sure, I would think so," Stoops told ESPN. "When you cannot be at your best and win, it's always a positive against a ranked team."

Of course, Stoops is a bit biased. But Oklahoma has come on strong down the stretch and would certainly have an impressive resume. It will be hard to keep the Sooners out of the playoff if they knock off Oklahoma State.

Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. Stanford

This is a pretty easy bowl to project, as it will almost assuredly end up as the loser of the Big Ten title game against the winner of the Pac-12 title matchup. With Michigan State reaching the playoff in this projection, it will be Iowa who gets a Rosy consolation prize. 

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Baylor

This is another easy bowl to project, as the Sugar Bowl will end up with the next-best options from the SEC and the Big 12. This would be a fun matchup. Of course, given Baylor's explosive offense, pretty much every game they play is entertaining. 

Peach Bowl: Navy vs. Ohio State

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Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Buckeyes are likely going to lose any chance at the Rose Bowl even if they beat Michigan unless Michigan State or Iowa lose before the Big Ten title game. This will be Ezekiel Elliott's last game as a Buckeye, and the expectation will be that he'll run all over the Navy defense. 

Never underestimate the underdog in these games, though. Navy is a good football team and, in this scenario, would have impressive late-season wins over Memphis and Houston. They'd be much more motivated in this contest than Ohio State, a team that seems to be in disarray at this point.

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Florida State

Notre Dame will feel snubbed. Even if the Fighting Irish beat Stanford, if Michigan State and Oklahoma win out, it would be hard to argue that they have a better resume than either school. Outside of Stanford, Notre Dame's most impressive win would be against Navy. That won't stack up against wins over Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa; or Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.

Notre Dame's opponent will be tough to pick. The committee would probably go with Florida State over North Carolina, though the Tar Heels will be able to make a strong case. The fact that Florida State has remained ranked above North Carolina in the official rankings to this point despite Florida State having one more loss than North Carolina doesn't bode well for the Tar Heels.