College Football Rankings 2015: Hits and Misses from the Week 13 Polls
Thirteen combined points. That's all that separated the outcomes of four games involving five top-10 teams. From Michigan State's game-winning field goal over Ohio State to Florida and Notre Dame outlasting Florida Atlantic and Boston College, respectively, Week 12 of the college football season had some close calls and season-changing moments.
Now, it's time to take stock all that happened with the latest USA Today Amway Coaches Poll and the Associated Press Top 25. The playoff committee's top 25 won't be released until Tuesday, but Sunday's polls may provide a glimpse of what to expect.
Where did pollsters get it right? Where did they swing and miss? We give our two cents in the following slides based not only on the past week's action, but also on what has transpired so far this season.
Hit: Ohio State
1 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 8 (previously No. 2)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 8 (previously No. 2)
Ohio State's 17-14 loss to Michigan State was surprising from a point-spread perspective—the Buckeyes were a 13-point favorite, per OddsShark.com—but the reality is this team has looked a few clicks off for the entire season.
Also, now we know just how certain Ohio State players, like running back Ezekiel Elliott, felt about the play-calling against the Spartans. As B/R's Ben Axelrod noted, head coach Urban Meyer has lost some trust from his players. Disagree with Elliott's decision to speak out if you must, but he's not wrong. Ohio State's offense was held to 132 yards.
Make no mistake, though. Ohio State would have been among the top four teams if it had won out. Now that it has a loss, though, it's out of the playoff race unless it gets help. Talent-wise, the Buckeyes are still one of the top teams in college football, which is why voters are hesitant to move them out of the top 10. But the resume and the eye test never added up.
Miss: Oregon
2 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 18 (previously No. 22)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 18 (previously No. 23)
Oregon has three losses, but let's take a quick poll: Who really wants to play the Ducks right now?
With a 48-28 win over USC, Oregon has now won five games in a row. In Week 11, the Ducks surprised many with a 38-36 victory at Stanford. The Cardinal will represent the North division in the Pac-12 championship game, but there probably isn't a team playing better football in that conference than head coach Mark Helfrich's team.
It has a lot to do with the health of quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. Hampered by a finger injury early in the year, Adams is now back to 100 percent, and he's dealing some nasty throws. Against the Trojans, Adams had more touchdown passes (six) than incompletions (five).
Anything outside the top 15 feels like disrespect. Sure, point to what happened early in the year if you want, but sometimes you have to go off of what you're seeing today. Teams change, and Oregon has undeniably changed for the better.
Hit: Baylor
3 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 7 (previously No. 10)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 7 (previously No. 10)
Who says Baylor's out of the playoff race?
Thanks to a 45-35 win over Oklahoma State—with a third-string quarterback and backup running back, mind you—the Bears are still in decent position as a playoff long shot. And now, no one can say Baylor hasn't beaten anyone of note. The Cowboys were undefeated and ranked No. 6 in the playoff poll.
Even when banged up, there's no doubting Baylor's offense is elite. The defense has been questionable, but it came up big against the Pokes, allowing only eight yards rushing and forcing seven consecutive punts.
When asked about the Big 12's stance in the playoff race, head coach Art Briles said, “I think one maybe two Big 12 teams (should make it)," per Brett McMurphy of ESPN.com.
Hey, you can't blame the guy for politicking, but odds are the Big 12's playoff hopes rest on Oklahoma or Baylor, in that order.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Miss: Notre Dame
4 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 4 (previously No. 5)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 4 (previously No. 5)
Here's an honest question: How many people watched Notre Dame's 19-16 win over Boston College on Saturday? It's understandable if many didn't. TCU-Oklahoma, Baylor-Oklahoma State and Michigan State-Ohio State were going on roughly around the same time.
That, and Mississippi State-Arkansas was going all #SECAfterDark on everyone. The last thing anyone was interested in was Notre Dame playing a three-win team in a baseball stadium.
But the Irish committed five turnovers—three in the red zone—against the Eagles. Yeah, Boston College's defense is no slouch, but this was a sloppy, unfocused performance by Notre Dame. Had it been someone other than Boston College, Notre Dame easily could have lost this game.
So why did the Irish move up in the rankings? What, exactly, did they prove that, say, Michigan State didn't? Notre Dame did not play its best football in Week 12 and is lucky no one noticed.
Hit: Navy
5 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 15 (previously No. 19)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 16 (previously No. 19)
It wasn't unanimous top-15 love, but Navy is right there. Finally, the Midshipmen are getting the recognition they deserve. True, there wasn't much to take away from a 44-21 win over Tulsa, but Navy keeps on rolling, with some huge games coming up in the next couple of weeks.
A trip to Houston on Nov. 27 will decide the American Athletic Conference West division. The Cougars fell from the list of unbeaten teams with a road loss to UConn, but first-year head coach Tom Herman has still done a masterful job. This will be a tough game for Navy.
If Navy wins, they'll have the AAC Championship Game and the Army game. The more likely scenario there would be a New Year's Six bowl for the Midshipmen. But if enough chaos happens, you never know how high Navy could move in the playoff rankings.
Miss: Florida
6 of 6
USA Today Amway Coaches Poll: No. 9 (previously No. 8)
Associated Press Top 25: No. 10 (previously No. 8)
Florida has to find answers on offense if it wants to win either of its last two games against Florida State and Alabama. Because what the Gators put on display in a 20-14 overtime win over Florida Atlantic is not going to get it done.
Of course, Florida is stretched thin in several areas, especially up front, but it's unlikely the offense will magically become potent and average six to seven yards per play. The defense is elite, but the strength of schedule isn't as good as you'd think (No. 52, per Sagarin.com), and the depth issues are showing down the stretch. Wins over Vanderbilt, South Carolina and FAU, none of which have a winning record, were hard-fought games.
Florida may have been a top-10 team earlier in the year, especially after beating Ole Miss, but this team has taken a step back as the year has progressed.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
