College Football Playoff Rankings: Biggest Takeaways from Week 12
Backloaded schedules made Week 12 one of the season's biggest.
Long-awaited matchups in the Big Ten, where Ohio State hosted Michigan State, and the Big 12, where Oklahoma State hosted Baylor and Oklahoma hosted TCU, put a large group of fringe contenders in the spotlight during SEC-SoCon Challenge Week.
Those games lived up to the hype—at least in terms of intrigue—with two coming down to the final minute and two resulting in an undefeated team's first loss. The outcome of those games, plus others, had obvious implications on the College Football Playoff picture.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here's a quick look at what we learned.
Ohio State's Reign Is Over
Ohio State lost to Michigan State on a last-second field goal, but that phrase makes it sound as if the two teams were even.
They weren't.
The Spartans outgained the Buckeyes 294-132, engulfing Ohio State's offense and leaving star running back Ezekiel Elliott, a supposed Heisman Trophy favorite, whining about his coaches and the loss.
Sparty pulled the upset without senior quarterback Connor Cook, who missed the game with a shoulder injury.
Backup Tyler O'Connor made his first career start in The Horseshoe, but Michigan State outplayed the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball from start to finish.
USA Today's Dan Wolken left impressed and thinks the Spartans should control their own destiny:
Head coach Mark Dantonio said he thinks Cook will be back next week against Penn State, per Dan Murphy of ESPN.com, which gives the Spartans an offense as potent as their defense flashed on Saturday.
If Michigan State beats Penn State, and Iowa, which advanced to 11-0 with a 44-20 win over Purdue, beats Nebraska in Week 13, the Spartans and Hawkeyes will meet in the Big Ten Championship with a playoff berth potentially on the line.
Ohio State could still make the playoff theoretically, but doing so would require a win over Michigan, Penn State beating Michigan State, a subsequent win over Iowa and a lot of chaos elsewhere.
For all intents and purposes, the Buckeyes are done.
Big 12 Deja Vu?
The Big 12 drew the short straw last season and has yet to place a team inside the Top Four of a weekly CFP ranking this year.
It added to that trouble by losing its last unbeaten team, Oklahoma State, to a loss against Baylor in Week 11. The Bears looked great on both sides of the ball and stand a modest chance of making the playoff, but Oklahoma State finishing 12-0 would have definitely earned the Big 12 a playoff bid, so the Cowboys' loss was bad for the conference.
Also bad for the conference: Oklahoma nearly choking against TCU. Quarterback Baker Mayfield left with a head injury, and the Horned Frogs mounted a comeback in his absence. They scored what might have been the game-tying touchdown with seconds to play but went for the win and lost when Steven Parker batted down a pass on the two-point conversion. OU stayed afloat but did not land the style points it needed.
The silver lining is that Ohio State lost, which ostensibly opens a playoff spot. That and other factors led my colleague, Adam Kramer, to say the Big 12 is still well situated. And really, in a lot of ways, it is.
But that silver lining comes with a caveat, since Iowa remains undefeated, Michigan State reemerged as a contender and Notre Dame earned a sloppy win over Boston College. If Notre Dame beats Stanford next week and stays ahead of the Big 12's top team, that means Oklahoma or Baylor, assuming a win for one or both next week, could enter championship weekend in the Top Four but then drop behind the winner of the Big Ten Championship Game.
Just like TCU did last season.
That gulp! you hear is Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby.
The SEC Needs Alabama
If Alabama loses, the SEC misses the playoff.
It's really that simple.
You could have made the case for Florida, if it beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, to crash the field as 12-1 conference champions. But the Gators hurt their resume by limping past Vanderbilt two weeks ago, made things worse by struggling at South Carolina and then pulled the plug by needing overtime against Florida Atlantic in Week 12.
Even if the Gators beat Florida State and Alabama to close the season—which, by the way, they won't—they're a tough sell to crash the national semis. With so many quality fringe contenders (see above), how could a team with so many red marks make the field?
It's Alabama or bust in the nation's most lucrative conference. Get ready for a month of conspiracy theories!
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
