Despite Playoff Long Shot, Pac-12 Elite Coming on Strong as End of Season Nears

Rewind four months.

That's when Pac-12 media members projected USC and Oregon would meet in the conference championship game, potentially with playoff implications on the line. The Pac-12 game of the year, also between the Trojans and Ducks, fell on Nov. 21. It wasn't inconceivable to believe the conference's two most high-profile programs would play the most important games of their respective regular seasons within a matter of three weeks. 

Now fast-forward to the present day. USC and Oregon are each 7-3 and nowhere near the playoff picture. Yet, Saturday's game between them is still important and can still be a preview of the conference title game. It won't have any national implications, but the Trojans and Ducks are arguably playing the best football in the Pac-12 at the moment. Both teams have won four in a row after starting 3-3. USC has a win over Utah, and Oregon knocked off Stanford 38-36 in Week 11. 

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Such has been the trend in the Pac-12. One team gets hot for a bit and then is leapfrogged by another. But the overall streakiness of the Pac-12 makes its title race one of the most wide-open of its kind over the next few weeks. Realistically, as many as five teams still have a shot to win the division. 

Kevin Danna of Pac-12 Networks breaks down the entire Pac-12 championship chase, but the following scenarios apply for a possible Oregon-USC rematch:

1. Oregon must beat USC and Oregon State and needs Stanford to lose to Cal to win the North Division. 
2. The Trojans hold the tiebreaker in the South Division over Utah, so their path is clear. Win out and they're in. But, in the event they lose to Oregon, they would need to beat UCLA on Nov. 28 and have Utah lose at least one more game.

That loss could come Saturday to the Bruins. With Utes running back Devontae Booker suffering a injury that will rule him out for the remainder of the regular season, according to Booker's father, Ronnie (via David Lombardi of ESPN), the South Division could very well favor a team from Los Angeles. 

That would make the annual crosstown rivalry between UCLA and USC one of the must-watch games on the Saturday following Thanksgiving. On top of that, Stanford's Nov. 28 game against Notre Dame has major playoff implications as a late-season nonconference contest. Beating the Irish may not propel the Cardinal back into the top four, but it would ruin Notre Dame's hopes for good. 

You can't ask for much more from a conference in terms of big games on one weekend. 

There's a lot of meaningful football left to be played, but if those situations come to fruition, the Pac-12 would get its blue-blooded championship game—just not the way it imagined. Then again, the paths Oregon and USC took to even get to this point are among the more fascinating in college football. 

As Brian Fremeau of BCFToys.com tweeted, the trio of three-loss teams in the latest playoff rankings—Ole Miss, Oregon and USC—has gone through some of the toughest schedules to date: 

Per Fremeau, USC's and Oregon's strengths of schedule rank 10th and 11th, respectively. Only one team currently in the CFP Top Four, Notre Dame, compares. The Irish have the eighth-toughest strength of schedule, according to the same metric. The next closest is Alabama at No. 27. 

(For reference, Sagarin rankings have USC and Oregon at No. 20 and No. 23, respectively.) 

Oregon and USC have also gone through their share of adversity while playing tough schedules. Five games into the season, USC fired head coach Steve Sarkisian following separate reports of alcohol problems crossing over into his work life. Ducks quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. dealt with a finger injury through much of the early part of the season. Now healthy, he has Oregon looking like the Ducks of old. 

"I think we are the best team in the conference," Adams said, per Matt Prehm of 247Sports. "We had a slip-up against Washington State and Utah, and it is what it is. We are playing some good football right now and we just have to keep it going."

Date	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
Saturday	USC at Oregon	UCLA at Utah	Cal at Stanford
Nov. 28	UCLA at USC	Notre Dame at Stanford	--

The Ducks and Trojans are battle-tested, and the worst may be behind them. If the best is ahead, who knows what could happen if college football's postseason format was different?

It would be an interesting situation if the playoff was expanded to eight teams and took automatic bids from conference champions. That's not to say anyone in the Pac-12 this year is the best team in college football, but catching fire at the right time always seems to make playoff runs more fascinating. 

That theory will have to wait for another year when the playoff does inevitably expand. For now, the Pac-12 will have to take comfort in knowing that while its playoff hopes are likely dead, it can ruin those hopes for someone else and play its most exciting football at the end of the year. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.